Updated 2207 - 24th September 1999 - J ONeill
September 1999 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

ASWA Victoria
Date Name

Information
1 Andrew McDonald A fairly decent front seems likely to come through according to several models late Saturday. Should bring half decent snowfalls to the alps to help keep the ski season going for a few more weeks and maybe some cold Cb's to Melbourne if we are lucky on Sunday morning. Thickness might get down to about 534 depending on which model you look at. Should see a fair bit of rain here Saturday/Saturday night with the prefrontal cloud mass and after the passage of the front. Most models are going for half decent rainfall totals. I think we could expect about 20mm over the entire weekend in Melbourne - a nice start to spring rainfall totals. Might have to watch the flood situation over the coming month too in the NE - the ground is pretty moist after two decent rain events up there during August. Another decent rain event this month could seen some flooding (not just minor) in the N and NE as the snow will/is starting to melt causing higher river levels.
4 Jane ONeill ASWA meeting
9 Blair Trewin It's still a fair way out, but days 7 and 8 of GASP are getting very interesting indeed - it has a deep low developing south of Australia, situated just south of Tasmania on Thursday night with a central pressure of 970 hPa. This is accompanied by a burst of  sub-532 thicknesses covering almost all of Victoria (with 528 touching the southern coast) and westerly to southwesterly gales.
9 Clyve Herbert Reported several cgs in the Geelong area (which was a good way of getting out of mowing the lawn with a hand mower!!) around 1600AEST.  Rang the BoM - they were appreciative of  the report.  Cb's are developing along the convergence line/trough line along the clearing edge of a middle level cloud band extending W-E.   That makes 4 storms since the beginning of August!!!!!! 
16 Jane ONeill
(Bayswater)		 Storm damage report (eastern suburbs):-
Bayswater: Leaf litter, twigs
Vermont: 1 mature tree down
Box Hill: 1 mature tree down
Kew: branches down on NW side of hill at Studley Park
Other than that, there was no sign that we had the winds that we had last night - at least in this particular corridor.
Last night the pressure dropped from 998 to 994 between 9pm & midnight, temperature went from 23.8C to 24.8C, humidity dropped from 62% to 47% in the same period.  At 10pm Mt Gambier had a pressure of 989!!  Light showers overnight carrying dust. Winds gale force till 4.30am.
16 Dane Newman
(Kilsyth)		 Gale force winds all night here in Kilsyth we were blacked out twice, very little rain just 0.2mm to 8am. Haven't been out to check any local damage. The temperature rose with the wind and it was 25c in the city at 1.30am - that's the highest this spring to date. Barometer got down to 991 Hpa it is now 996. Winds are much lighter now and the temperature is now 15c.
16 Chas Osborn
(Strahan, Tas)		 Steady light rain overnight with a total of  7mm. The temperature a balmy  16C with other stations in Tasmania, Launceston 18C and Flinders Island 19C at 7am. The wind at the airport NNE 13knot pressure 998mb. Dust from the mainland has been falling around Launceston.
16 Blair Trewin
(Heidelberg)		 I had the pleasure of being out in the middle of it in East Ivanhoe. Most of the damage seemed to result from a single severe squall at about 8.00 p.m. I saw a large branch fall from a mature tree just across the street, and later  numerous fallen branches and a few mature trees. There was also a radio report of a roof being blown off one house and landing on another in the area - I'm assuming that's why a street (about 500 metres to the north) was cordoned off with the SES in attendance.
For those who know the area, the worst damage appeared to be on the east side of Burke Road, falling away considerably on the western side. We also had a large branch fall in front of our house, in Heidelberg about 3km to the north. I'd estimate wind speeds in the squall at 100-120 km/h. There was no thunder or lightning, and only a little rain (maybe 0.5mm, tops).
16 David Jones
(Box Hill)		 There were quite a few small and moderate branches (up to ~6ft) down in Box Hill and Blackburn this morning, and a large tree at Laburnum (in Blackburn) station which brought down powerlines over the footpath to the station. Witnessed a student navigate under the tree and in the process stand on the (thankfully still insulated) wires.
Of course there were no customer service officers to be seen, in what was potentially a very dangerous situation (I would presume the tree came down in the night with the strongest gusts, meaning it had been there for at least 3 hours, powerlines and all). Only other property damage I saw was to my front picket fence :( where one of the decorative nobby things blew off! BTW had a brief thunderstorm (about 3 minutes duration) and 2 cracks of
thunder ~7:30pm last night, yielding a grand total of 0.4mm.
16 Paul Yole
(Murtoa)		 Not much happened here last night. Winds estimated at 45km/h and the temp a warm 16C at midnight.
16 Clyve Herbert
(Leopold)		 Coming up on Geelong - Melbourne Highway this morning, scattered tree limbs blown down indicating probable winds close to 100kmh, and a distinct lack of smaller branches & leaves.....the wind was probably strong enough to blow them elsewhere.  Would be interesting to check the position and amplitude of the the lee wave south of the dividing range to discover where the strongest winds were.

An interesting comment by Senior Forecaster at 905 this morning that there may have been possible microbursts in the NE & E suburbs(??)  I think this is likely to have been caused by strong subsidence in lee wave activity downwind from hills and mountains.

In Leopold - strongest gust 96km at 0110 Thursday, 24C at 2315. Lowest pressure 989hPa around 0100.  Much dust but minimal rain overnight.  Sporadic lightning from high based activity throughout the night.   Cars in Geelong this morning covered in red mud.
16 Rod Aikman
(Bendigo)		 Last night was reasonably quiet here in Bendigo. We had a thunderstorm about 18:30; just a sound and light show, however there were some good cc's in close proximity. Only a slight sprinkle of rain from this storm.The maximum temp. of 22.9 occurred at 23:30 last night, followed by a sudden plunge at 02:00 this morning.There was another thundery shower at 05:30 this morning.The rainfall total for the 24 hours prior to 09:00 was just 1.0 mm.
17 Nandina Morris
(Mulgrave)		 In Wandin North, around 10.30 p.m. a tree came down in my daughter's back yard. It crashed onto the roof, and 21 tiles had to be replaced. Winds whooshed through from about 10pm to midnight. Several mature trees down in and around Lilydale to Wandin, along Warburton Hwy.
17 Andrew McDonald
(Greensborough)		 Storm on Wednesday night - down at Rosanna tennis club - winds to about 80km/h and heavy rain - one branch about 6" fell on the court and just around the corner a whole tree was SNAPPED OFF at base level. Also a tree landed on a house in Eltham and took out the front of the roof and wall.
17 Rod Aikman
(Bendigo)		 Had a few showers here from just before lunch time to mid afternoon. There must have been a trough just to the east of Bendigo, as some rather impressive cold air Cb's developed after passing overhead as more or less just congestus; and there was not a lot of shower development to the west. Today's cold Cb's were probably the best examples that I have seen here this year. (We are not as well endeared here with cold Cb's as you are.)
21 Jane ONeill Signs of vorticity this morning west of Tasmania, as a weak low pressure system forms in almost the same place as has been happening for the last 3 weeks.  This area of low pressure is not nearly as extreme as that of last week, and will move to the SE over the next 24 hours, although with warm advection at 850hPa & with the system located SE of the jet, we could see some middle level instability & isolated showers.
24 Clyve Herbert Congesting cumulus over the divide with a fairly strong cap at 8-9,000 ft.  There is a risk that some of these will break the cap over the divide and more favoured areas.  Keep an eye to the north and north-east.  Convective temperature required to break the cap in the Melbourne area is probably in the vicinity of 24 - 27C.  Melbourne surface temperatures currently range between 19.9 -21.2C.
24 Nick Sykes Melbourne could approach 30C next week. This warm weather looks extending until the end of the week, the only hiccup being a weak front mid week.

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