|
September 2001 Forecast Outlook,
Discussion & Report Page
Victoria |
| Date |
Name |
Information |
| . |
. |
Victorian Weather Glass |
|
|
Goto October Forecast Outlook, Discussion and
Report page |
|
Kevin Parkyn (BoM - Severe Wx) |
Finally, with respect to Sunday evening
did anyone, apart from Clyve (who seems live in Victoria's severe weather belt!), come
across any damage to property or vegetation or perhaps experienced severe wind gusts in
excess of 90 km/hr? |
| 30 |
Rod Aikman |
A drier and much warmer than average
September has come to a conclusion with a bang. Two storms around 1800 brought 10 mm
at the end of a day which saw my maximum temperature reach 30.3 degrees; this
being the warmest September day in Bendigo
since Sep 30, 1961. |
| 30 |
Clyve Herbert (Leopold) |
An impressive group of high based storms
moved over the Geelong area between 1730hrs and 1830hrs, lots of lightning but
unfortunately small amounts of rain. However these fast movers were generating some rather
good microbursts and I was fortunate to be videoing at 1755hrs when one of these
downbursts hit Leopold, two gusts clouted my home the first was very short lived and
reached 95kph,forcing me to go to the back yard for shelter,the
second gust was a ripper and tested my weather wizard to show 122kph. |
| 30 |
Andrew McDonald |
This great line of storms on formed on
the trough. Our sounding showed a nice cap at about 720mb which surpressed
convection until maximum heating at about 4pm when the temps across west central and north
central Victoria pushed into the high 20's/low 30's and the convergence along the
pre-frontal trough saw moisture rocket up with DP's going from 6-7C this morning up to
15-16C this afternoon. This combination kicked off these awesome storms which roared
along at 100+km/h due to the 50-60knt LLJ and 60-70knt MLJ which were ripping across
Victoria at the time. I must say we are quite lucky here in Victoria today as had we
had slightly more NE'ly surface flow we could've potentially been looking at quite a
serious severe weather threat. |
| 30 |
Clyve Herbert |
The west of the state looks a little
better and will improve later today. In a line from Mildura to Cape Otway (at
1200hrs),east of this line is a belt of dry warm air with surface gusts up to 70kph. West
of this 'Line' winds decline to less than 40kph,this line appears to be a weak shear
zone/trough. West of the line humidity is higher, most of the instability is
further west and near to the cold front.Colder upper air should precede this cold front as
it moves into western Vic later today,however there is strong dry air incursion happening
through Vic and this may be a problem for the development of widespread thunderstorms
,although some embedded mid level activity should be around,another interesting factor is
the deep low in the Aus Bight which at the moment is moving in more easterly direction
rather than a south east bearing, although this may change later today. |
| 28 |
Clyve Herbert |
Looks to be
happening over the WA region over the next 12 hours, especially the south west corner, a large field of cold air has advanced northeast to
just west of the WA southwest coast and is showing strong Vorticity
near to the 500hpa cold pool. The sub tropical jet is also
strengthening north-westward from Exmouth to southeast of
Indonesia as the 300hpa trough deepens ahead of the
approaching cold front, also the high well southwest of WA
appears to be extending a strong ridge south-eastward, this will aid in the transportation of very cold air into the southwest WA region and the
western Aus Bight. It will be interesting to see if the sub tropical
jet manages to pull some of the moisture southeast across
inland Aus over the next 24 hours. |
| 26 |
Clyve Herbert |
The area of broad vorticity over WA
is showing signs of slow movement, the leading cloud band indicating what seems to
be a short wave upper trough is decaying as it moves east out of the favoured upper
vorticity area and a new upper (and surface low ) have taken shape closer to Perth, the
sub tropical jet is not strong. What is interesting is the presence of a vast field
of moisture west of Indonesia 10degrees to the north and south of the Equator. The area of
vorticity over WA looks as if it may drift further southeast and encroach onto Victoria
this weekend by that time a strengthening high may push into the Aus Bight and assist with
an infeed of colder air to tighten the thermal gradient just to the west of Victoria
(Sat/Sun) and create a situation for a strengthening jet over central Aust and allow some
of the moisture now tothe northwest of Aus to invade eastern Aust ahead of the developing
low west of Vic this weekend (a bit of a wish forecast but never mind)... |
| 22 |
Clyve Herbert |
Nice baroclinic cloud
splotch, (mid upper level) moving through SA and Victoria, also showing moderate mid level
instability, baroclinicity developing ahead of a moderate strength low near the Australian
Bight, with this area of cloud and mid level moisture may be a couple of high based storms
about Victoria tonight. A very marked warming
for all of Victoria this Sunday (snow eater) although too much warming may affect storm
development. The possibilities are the clearance of mid and upper cloud and some decent
heating may be enough for a few storms, these would be better if some of the upper cold
air moving across the Australian Bight got into Victoria tomorrow afternoon. Moisture
shouldn't be much of a problem. |
| 20 |
Clyve Herbert |
Interesting mid and
upper trough lingering over central Vic this afternoon and
producing patchy rain, cloud motion at mid levels is surprisingly slow and associated rain has been slow moving, all this despite very sharp
pressure rises over western and central Victoria over the past 5
hours. |
| 20 |
Clyve Herbert |
The trough moving
through Southeast Aus this morning may be good for our NSW chasers,
should see some local activity along the trough line as it edges slowly eastward, however the southern portion of the trough should move
rather quickly through southern Vic and then shear off to the Tasman
leaving a slow moving trough over inland NSW, which may be a
good thing for the central Tablelands for Friday, the trough
looks as if it may weaken after Friday as another high builds
'around the corner'....still its the first summer looking
change I have seen this season. |
| 12 |
Clyve Herbert |
Looks to be the
potential for some impressive rainfall totals south of Kiama today
associated with the wrap around band working into the low pressure system west of Sydney, also yet another baroclinic cloud band developing
along the sub trop jet extending across the Pilbara this area
seems activated by a low moving into the western Aust Bight
region. |
| 11 |
Clyve Herbert |
There is evidence
of mid level instability over the ranges of Vic also this afternoon
with Alto Cu Cas showing positive buoyancy above 8 or 9000' feet, although this is mixing with subsidence on the far south of the vorticity
area west of Broken Hill, looks as if the low will pass north of Vic
tonight and tomorrow. |
| 11 |
Harald Richter |
Line of very
lightning-active thunderstorms has entered W NSW (extending N
and S from Broken Hill area). Arithmetic average of flow from 23Z PAD and CBT soundings shows a possibility of embedded severe cells (higher severe likelihood at S end of the line with locally backed flow). Surface moisture is still a bit scarce. Welcome to the Storm Season 2001 |
| 8 |
Jane ONeill |
Images of lee wave
development (I think) in the Melbourne area yesterday http://www.stormchasers.au.com/07_09_01.htm |
| 6 |
Blair Trewin |
Quite a nice northwest
cloudband showing up at the moment, stretching all the way from a big flareup in the
vicinity of Christmas Island to the main cloud area currently over SA.
The radar is showing some precipitation crossing the Pilbara coast with this. Measurable
rainfall in this region is very rare in September with monthly means near 1mm everywhere.
At the moment the rain indicated on radar is near the coast in an unpopulated area
between Port Hedland and Broome, and no station reported any measurable rain at 0900
(although Pardoo had a trace). |
| 5 |
Clyve Herbert |
Some developments going
on over the Australian broadscale today. The moisture plume lurking west and southwest of
Indonesia (has been there on and off over most of the winter) is again on the move
south-eastward and starting to interact with a developing mid latitude trough. The sub
tropical jet is also strengthening over central Aus and a nice cold pool at 500hpa is
moving north-eastward from south of WA. The tropical moisture plume is interesting as a
similar incursion a few weeks ago brought record rain to the southwest of WA, although
this plume is further east. All this adds up to a potentially interesting weekend so let's
sit back and watch (with our fingers crossed). |
| 4 |
Robert Goler |
Interesting showers
moving up from the SW across the Bellarine Peninsula late this afternoon....
128km
loop
Victorian
IR image at 6.30pm |
| 2 |
Nick Sykes |
For a couple of days now the GASP and EC
models have been showing a powerful frontal/trough system moving through Eastern Australia
at the end of the week. What has me very excited is that the models are predicting that
some warm air will be dragged south into this system and even better, the models have a
good moisture infeed from the NW, a result of the first heat trough developing over inland
WA. The thickness gradient associated with this system is to die for and TT's are
forecasted to be above 60 in Vic on Saturday!!! |
| . |
. |
Melbourne Real Time Temperature Observations Graph
Melbourne Real
Time Rainfall Graph
Port Phillip Bay Wind &
Temperatures |
