Victoria - October 2000 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

October 2000 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page Victoria
Date	Name	Information
		Go to November Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page
28	Clyve Herbert	Sunday 29/10/2000 to Wednesday 1/11/2000 Hello fellow weather watchers. A rather strong high southwest of Mt Gambier today (Sat 28.10.2000) will weaken slowly as this system drifts towards the Tasman Sea by Monday. A developing trough over Western Australia today and Sunday will then advance towards south-eastern Australia on Tuesday and Wednesday. TEMPERATURES.....Most of south-eastern Australia will be rather cool to cold through Saturday and early Sunday some local inland frosts will affect this region early Sunday, some frosts will also occur over sheltered inland parts of Tasmania early Sunday and Monday morning. A warmer trend is then likely from Sunday afternoon to Tuesday across the southeast of the continent. The north of Australia will remain very warm to hot with temperatures generally edging higher throughout this region by Monday and Tuesday, although Sunday morning should be rather cool over the Alice Springs district. A cooler trend appears probable from Wednesday across south-eastern Australia. RAINFALL.....An upper level disturbance over central Australia will bring patchy light falls and local high based thunderstorms today and Sunday, this complex appears to be weakening as the cloud mass moves eastward towards northern N.S.W. and southern / central Q.L.D. Saturday through to Monday. A weak trough should develop over inland eastern Australia from Sunday and extend slowly southward along the western divide - this system may bring isolated showers and storms from the central divide of Q.L.D to the northern and central tablelands of N.S.W. later Sunday to Tuesday. A developing trough over Western Australia should advance eastward and combine with a mid latitude trough and cold front moving across the Australian Bight later Sunday and Monday to affect south-eastern Australia by late Tuesday and Wednesday, patchy rain and local storms may affect South Australia and the southeast of Australia as this system passes these regions. There is also a risk of enhanced rainfall over the southeast if a low pressure system develops near to the Australian Bight on Monday and moves close to the south east of Australia Tuesday and Wednesday. The north of Australia will see a continuation of isolated to scattered storms becoming more frequent over the Kimberley and top end of the Northern Territory later Sunday to Wednesday. Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services Victoria Australia (n.m.p.)
25	Clyve Herbert	Wednesday 25/10/2000 - Saturday 28/10/2000 Hi all weather watchers. The primary high pressure system continues to be located well to the west of Perth with the baric ridge extending eastward to near Perth, then towards the Australian Bight and dives south-eastward to south of Tasmania and across the Tasman Sea to New Zealand. The significant low near to south east Australia today (Wed 25.10.00) extends a trough towards Queensland, an upper disturbance is moving through South Australia. PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS.The low near Eden today will remain slow moving with its weakening cloud band wrapping around to bring further drought breaking rain to central Victoria. The high pressure cell south west of Tasmania will weaken and become absorbed into a high pressure system near New Zealand. A weak ridge will push towards western Victoria and a cold front will move towards south-eastern Australia later Thursday and Friday. Heat lows will dominate the northern and north-western parts of Australia throughout the forecast period. The primary high west of Perth will edge slowly eastward to be closer to the Australian Bight by Friday and Saturday with a ridge extending towards Tasmania. TEMPERATURES.....Most of south-eastern Australia will remain cool to mild throughout the forecast period - colder conditions will affect much of the southeast of the continent and Tasmania on Friday and Saturday, also expect some cold nights with fog over inland areas of the southeast Friday to Sunday. Most of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and north Queensland will remain very warm to hot throughout the period, although cooler air should push through the southwest of W.A. today and Thursday. RAINFALL.....The low pressure complex near Victoria today will weaken slowly over the next 24 hours, however cloud spiralling around this system will bring moderate to heavy totals to mainly the central district and west Gippsland areas of Victoria today, enhanced orographic effect may also see heavy falls about the central Victorian divide today. The effect of this low will decline tonight to leave only a few showers and drizzle patches over these districts on Thursday. An upper disturbance over South Australia today may bring a few showers and storms as this system moves eastward towards N.S.W. and south west Q.L.D. today and Thursday. Further showers will spread across the southern parts of South Australia and most of the south east of Australia as a cold front affects those areas later Thursday and into Friday - the cold air following this front may bring brief snow to the highlands of Tasmania later Friday with the possibility of a few snow flurries across the Victorian highland later Friday and early Saturday. A few showers and storms will affect the top end of the Northern Territory and the far north west of W.A. throughout the forecast period. RISKS....The upper disturbance over South Australia may extend some thundery activity into south Q.L.D. and the north of N.S.W.from Thursday to Saturday. Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services Victoria Australia (n.m.p.)
24	Lindsay Smail (Grovedale)	Geelong AWS total for 24 hours was 68 mm - our wettest October day since records started in 1889. It's also the wettest day since 6-2-73 (91.4 mm) and the sixth wettest day since 1889. District totals ranged from 59 (Point Lonsdale) to 78 at St Albans Park (an eastern suburb).
24	Peter Matters (Broadford)	Broadford has received 44mm up to 0800 this morning.
24	Rod Aikman (Bendigo)	Good morning from a soggy Bendigo! From 05:00 yesterday morning, up to 06:30 this morning I have recorded 72.1mm of rain. I have not as yet checked the Bendigo daily rainfall spread sheet, but I think this would be approaching an October daily rainfall record. The flood reports are coming in: the Calder Highway at Malmsbury is blocked by the swolen Coliban River, which is up as high as the Bakery. The Loddon River at Guildford is 150 metres wide, and the bridge at Newstead is blocked. Bendigo's water storages are full and over flowing (they were almost full before this rain anyway) hence the flooding at Malsmbury. There are reports of rainfall of up to 100 mm in places.
24	Blair Trewin (Melbourne)	Some impressive totals building up during the evening. Deniliquin AP had 32.8mm in the hour to 4pm, while Melbourne AP, apart from a heavy spell around 8pm, has been fairly evenly distributed and reached 53.8mm by midnight. The October record is 70.8, with 9 hours still to go.
22	Nick Sykes	For the last couple of days I have been watching with interest the large cloudband over the NT/QLD move south. It now appears highly likely that quite a major rain event will develop over the SE in the coming days. The water vapour image shows plentiful moisture. The models agree with most of them predicting substantial rain for Victoria, 50mm+ in many locations. Especially worrying is the heavy precipitation forecast for the NE of Victoria. This area has had good rains over the last months and the ground is well saturated. Some flood warnings are already current. We could see some decent flooding in that region if this system hits with it's full potential. Here in Melbourne today it is very warm, temps already getting into the mid 20's with scattered high cloud. DP's are high for this part of the world, the mid teens. With the continued infeed of tropical moisture and a nice trough, then low forecast to develop over Victoria, heavy rain is looking likely.
21	Clyve Herbert	Saturday 21/10/2000 - Wednesday 25/10/2000 Hello weather watchers, The main feature over Australia today (Sat 21.10.00) is a rather large cloud mass affecting most of central and eastern Australia north of 30 degrees.This system, which is connected to an upper level disturbance is slow moving, but appears to be edging towards the south, favouring motion towards an approaching trough and weak cold front across the Australian Bight area. The baric ridge extends from a large high well southwest of Perth to a weakening high over Victoria, then to a high pressure centre over New Zealand. PROBABLE DEVELOPMENTS. The high cell over Victoria will weaken and become absorbed into a ridge extending from New Zealand today; the baric ridge pushing across the south coast of W.A and S.A. today will strengthen with a new high developing near to the western Bight area. The trough over the Australian Bight will move towards South Eastern Australia today and Sunday. The large cloud mass is showing signs of combining with the approaching trough as this system moves through south-eastern Australia Sunday and Monday. TEMPERATURES....Mild to warm conditions will prevail over south eastern Australia today and Sunday. The passage of the trough and weak cold front will introduce cool to mild conditions over this region from Sunday to Tuesday. Much of inland Queensland will experience below average temperatures until Monday when warmer conditions will redevelop. The central and north of W.A will remain very warm to hot, and warmer temperatures will develop over the Northern Territory today and for the remainder of the outlook period. RAINFALL....An upper level ridge seems to be rather strong over West Australia and should also affect the Northern Territory. This upper system will restrict the development of any major storm activity in those areas until at least Monday, although intense heating may result in isolated showers and storms over the north Kimberley and the far top end of the Northern Territory during this period, and more general storm activity should reappear from Tuesday as the upper Ridge moves eastward and weakens. The large cloud area over inland eastern Australia will bring patchy rain and local embedded storms over the next two days before weakening and moving into the Tasman Sea. RAINFALL FAVOURED AREAS.....Much of north-eastern and central eastern areas of S.A, north-western N.S.W and western Q.L.D will receive light falls today with local moderate amounts from thunderstorm activity - although this upper feature generating this cloud mass is weakening some of this light rain should extend across inland N.S.W today and Sunday. Elsewhere parts of north tropical Q.L.D. may experience local heavy thunderstorms today to at least Monday.The passage of the trough across south-eastern Australia should generate a few showers and local storms. RISKS.... The large cloud area over central eastern Australia may move south and combine with the approaching trough. This set up may direct this cloud mass across Victoria with more general patchy rain over south eastern Australia Sunday and Monday - there is also a smaller risk of cyclogenesis over or near to south-eastern Australia later Sunday or Monday. Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services Victoria Australia (n.m.p.)
21	Andrew McDonald	Video captures from Wednesday and Thursday (lightning & possible funnels)
20	Lindsay Smail TORNADO	Images of the Geelong funnels supplied by Geelong Weather Services
19	Bodo Zeschke (late afternoon) TORNADO	The cloud base was well defined, and one could see distances beyond this quite easily. There was a sort of lowering to the cloud base, aka a wall cloud, and a funnel extended below this. Then there appeared some disturbance at ground level, but this did not join up with the funnel from the cloud. In addition it seemed as though this disturbance at the ground sort of leaped around, seeming as if there were multiple vortices. (Note that I have put "seeming as if" in italics as this may be not what it actually was...if that makes sense).
19	Peter Newham (late afternoon) TORNADO	At around 5:25pm we saw what we thought was a tornado touching the ground to the west of Kilmore, looking from the BOM building.....can anyone else confirm this???? Not much on 2D or 3D radar???
19	Clyve Herbert (early to mid afternoon) TORNADO	The Geelong funnel cloud was spectacular with a small rotating wall cloud and even a slight hint of a clear slot wrapping around!. The storm spawning the funnel/funnels was most rare for this region with the flanking line to the south and the storm rain area moving north (slowly). This severe multicell developed along a convergence line on the southwest flank of a small low pressure system topographical enhancement by complex convergence to the north east of the Otways may also have had some influence.The updraft pulse above the funnel area was very large with a solid hard looking overshoot with very rounded features,surface temperatures reached 19 to 21c over this region with the 500hpa at -23c there appears to have been a strong lapse rate potential.......more to come later....Also several small funnels developed in the Cranbourne area between 1345hrs and 1410hrs,the first funnel was rather large and dissipated after 2minutes unfortunately I was not able to photograph this one, however I managed to photograph a weaker second funnel from near Chelsea, this funnel lasted about 3minutes and was small,all activity in the Cranbourne area was under a strong congesting cumulus that later glaciated to produce a shower east of that area
19	Lindsay Smail (early afternoon) TORNADO	Funnel cloud seen over western suburbs of Geelong (Bell Post Hill) around 12.30-12.45 pm. Swirling clouds with funnel extending from base. I have had reports now from 4 separate areas and expect more. Intense th'storm showing on radar.
19	TORNADO	Images of 19th October - Melbourne area If anyone has any information regarding the funnels in Geelong, the eastern suburbs & north of Melbourne yesterday, please contact me at cadence@stormchasers.au.com
18	Andrew McDonald	I think you'll find that in the coming day or two the Otways will see some significant rainfall totals with the S or SE'ly airstream wrapping around the bottom of the low and picking up moisture while in the process. I wouldn't be surprised to see some totals in excess of 50mm along the SW coast.
18	Nick Sykes	Things are certainly looking pretty interesting over the SE in the coming days. The low is getting wound up near Kangaroo Island and is moving SE towards Victoria. The associated trough is nice, and with some impressive dew points around (well the best here for ages) we could see a bit of storm activity develop. The area I have my eye on is behind the rainband. The latest sat pic shows that some cells appear to be going up in NW Victoria.
17	Clyve Herbert	Hi all weather enthusiasts. A major trough and associated low pressure system over South Australia on Tuesday will weaken slightly and move towards the southeast to affect all of south east Australia during Wednesday and Thursday. A high pressure system will then build towards the Australian Bight area later Wednesday and Thursday and then move closer to south eastern Australia later Friday and Saturday. TEMPERATURES.....Mild to warm conditions will affect south-eastern Australia on Wednesday followed by a cooler trend Thursday to Friday; the north of Australia will remain very warm to hot throughout this period. Cold nights can be expected to redevelop over south-eastern Australia by Thursday and Friday especially over more sheltered inland areas with the risk of light frost. A warmer trend appears probable from later Friday to Saturday as a high pressure system pushes towards the Tasman Sea. RAINFALL.....The large cloud band over the central parts of Australia and South Australia will bring general light to moderate rain to those areas on Tuesday - a few embedded thunderstorms may bring local heavier falls over these regions. This large cloudband will move into south-eastern Australia by Wednesday bringing mainly light to moderate falls, again with the risk of heavier falls associated with mid level thunderstorm activity. This cloud system should move into the Tasman Sea by Thursday and Friday with a showery southwest airflow affecting the coastal and mountain areas of southeast South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania until Friday. Areas favoured for moderate to locally heavy falls are much of the southern half of South Australia during Tuesday and Wednesday, then most of the western and mountain areas of Victoria from Wednesday through to Thursday - a few moderate falls are also possible over central Victoria and west and south Gippsland during this period also. Thunderstorm activity should persist for several days over the top end of the Northern Territory and also parts of inland Queensland from Wednesday to Friday, with a few isolated heavy falls in those regions. An upper ridge should settle things down over the top end later in the week with storms becoming more isolated. There is also a risk of locally severe thunderstorms developing over the south eastern area of Queensland later Wednesday or Thursday with the approach of a trough system. RISKS.....Although the trough and low pressure system approaching Victoria Wednesday appears to be weakening slightly, there is a risk the high pressure cell building to the west south west of Adelaide later Wednesday may push a ridge towards Tasmania. If this occurs there is a possibility the area of low pressure over south eastern Australia on Wednesday and Thursday may become partially cut off - if this occurs rainfall will be enhanced over Victoria. Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services Victoria Australia (n.m.p.)
14	Clyve Herbert	Hello fellow weather watchers. The interaction of a mid latitude trough with the tropical north of Australia will bring a band of unstable conditions across the far north of Australia today, gradually weakening its influence through Sunday and Monday. The strong and persistent high pressure west south west of Perth continues to be the primary high pressure system over the Australian region. The baric ridge will continue to extend from this high pressure system towards the Australian Bight with new weaker high pressure cells "budding off" to form separate identities which then move rather quickly to the east. Another interesting feature is what appears to be a low pressure complex over Northern New South Wales on Saturday; this system on the back end of a trough will produce unstable conditions in that area today and should weaken and move seaward by Sunday. A fast moving cold front will affect south eastern Australia on Saturday followed by a vigorous west to south west flow - another weaker front should affect Tasmania and the southern tip of Victoria Sunday before a high pressure cell settles things down on Monday and Tuesday. TEMPERATURES. Cool to cold conditions will affect the southeast of the continent until Sunday and early Monday. A warmer trend is expected later Monday and Tuesday with the approach of a trough later Monday and Tuesday; a cooler trend seems probable from Wednesday. Conditions should be cooler over most of south-eastern Queensland and New South Wales until Monday when warmer conditions will develop in these areas. Very warm to hot conditions will affect northern areas and most of Western Australia through most of the outlook period; the development of a heat trough over Western Australia today and Sunday will bring locally high temperature Sunday over the interior of this region. RAINFALL. The band of instability across northern Australia today will bring local heavy thunderstorms to that area, especially the far top end of the Northern Territory today and far north Q.L.D. today and Sunday. Although this system will weaken, scattered thunderstorms will persist across the far north of Australia throughout the forecast period and will also redevelop over the Kimberley region Sunday through to Wednesday. A few thundery showers may also extend to the Pilbara and towards the Goldfields region later Sunday and Monday. Widespread showers will affect the southeast of Australia Saturday including Tasmania within the unstable cold air field. Snow showers will affect the higher mountains of Victoria and Tasmania with brief heavy falls over the highlands of Tasmania Saturday and Sunday. The retreating trough over northern N.S.W. will bring patchy rain and local thunder today. Areas favoured for moderate to heavy falls are the west coast and mountains of Tasmania the Highlands of Victoria,parts of North-eastern N.S.W. and the far north tropical areas of Australia. Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services Victoria Australia (n.m.p.)
11		Are we looking at an example of a baroclinic leaf in the Carnarvon area of WA??? There's a trough developing at the surface, warm advection through the area at 850hPa and a strengthening NW jet in the area. JCU IMage 12:29UTC 10/10/2000 John Gaul (NZ) Anyway regarding Baroclinic leafs, I understand it is a form of baroclinicity that forms on a leading edge of a low. Clyve Herbert Appears to be a type of baroclinic leaf, although I would classify it as a baroclinic splotch at this stage!.This area of mid and upper level cloud is in the early stages of development, as the mid and upper flow patterns are strengthening ahead of the approaching cold front,there is some indication this may be the early stages of cyclogenisis somewhere over the Australian Bight region over the next 24 to 36 hours, it will be interesting to see the interaction of the marked warm advection from 900 to 500hpa ahead of the approaching cold air field, it seems the primary high south west of Perth is on the move and this will help push this cold air towards south eastern Australia by Friday. On another note the persistent cloud band that has been affecting Australia over the past week is now organising itself around what seems to be a major low pressure system developing over New Zealand.
11	David Jones	Looking at the latest batch of progs. things could indeed get quite interesting in the SE of Aus from Thursday. All models are going for a strong front through Victoria (temperature contrast across front at 850hPa of ~14C), and quite widespread rainfall. Depending on the eventual scenario, this system could generate any combination of heavy rain, heavy alpine snowfalls, high winds, and thunderstorms...
9	Clyve Herbert	Hello fellow weather watchers. The high pressure ridge skirting along the southern Australian coastline continues to be the main feature, also present is a large and longed lived mid and upper cloud band extending across most of central Australia into New South Wales. This cloud band is associated with a surface trough and strong upper level winds and is the remainder of the weather system that affected Victoria on Saturday and Sunday. The baric ridge extends from the primary high pressure centre well to the south west of West Australia, new high pressure cells are "budding off" from this region and moving rapidly eastward, this process will continue for most of the week with occasional cold frontal activity affecting the coastal and nearby hinterland of southern Australia. A fast moving cold front should move over south eastern Australia and Tasmania on Tuesday followed by a colder west to south west airflow, a high pressure centre should then strengthen over the northern Australian Bight area with a ridge towards Victoria on Wednesday, another cold front should then approach south-eastern Australia later Thursday or early Friday. TEMPERATURES: Conditions will remain rather cool to mild over south-eastern Australia with colder conditions developing Tuesday, another cold morning can be expected across Victoria and Tasmania on Wednesday with light frosts in places a brief warmer trend is then likely on Thursday ahead of another cold front later Thursday or Friday. The north of Australia will remain very warm to hot throughout the week except for the far south west of Queensland and southern Northern Territory where it will be cooler until Thursday. RAINFALL: The band of mid and high level cloud across central Australia today will bring patchy rain across N.S.W. with a few thunderstorms mainly over the eastern half of the state, this cloud band should weaken slowly as it drifts northward, but should continue to be an area of sufficient instability to produce mostly light rainfall until later Tuesday or Wednesday. A cold front should bring general showers across south-eastern South Australia, southern and mountain areas of Victoria and Tasmania on Tuesday with stream showers to follow in those areas on Wednesday, although mainly over western Tasmania. A few brief snow showers should affect the higher mountains of Victoria and Tasmania later Tuesday and early Wednesday. The only area of significant rainfall should be about the west coast and mountain regions of Tasmania. At this stage a more significant cold front and trough should bring patchy rain and local storms on Friday to south eastern Australia. RISKS: The persistent trough over N.S.W. should be watched for the possibility of a low pressure development over the next two days - if this occurs enhanced rainfall may affect this region of Australia. Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services Victoria Australia (n.m.p.)
7	Blair Trewin	A cool change due near 0900 in Melbourne (or Adelaide) is a forecaster's nightmare in mid-summer - a 10-minute difference in timing can make the difference between a maximum well into the 30s and one near 20.
7	Don White (NSW)	Over the years, the importance of the 2000 to 5000 ft wind strength and their directions cannot be under estimated in calculating the effect /development /timing etc of the sea breeze in Sydney - one of the most significant features in the forecasting of tempertaures across the city.
6	Clyve Herbert	This cloud band continues to expand and is one of the largest systems I have seen although mostly high level stuff there may be a possibility of significant rainfall across south eastern Australia over the next 24 hours there is also marked vorticity near the central Australian Bight area, lets keep our fingers crossed for some decent rainfall
5	Clyve Herbert	The enlarging mid level cloud band extending from WA to Tasmania looks nice and worth keeping a check on over the next day or so
3	Clyve Herbert	Hello weather enthusiasts. The present phase of anticyclonic control should persist until later Thursday or Friday, a moderate strength high over western Victoria today (Tuesday 3.10.00) should move to the Tasman Sea by Wednesday, the baric ridge will be maintained across the southern areas of Australia running between Perth and Sydney, however a developing trough over West Australia should dissect this ridge as it moves east over the next two days. The broad westerly belt should remain to the south of Australia only affecting the southern tip of Victoria today and Tasmania. As the high pressure centre edges eastward warmer and drier air will invade south eastern Australia on Wednesday and Thursday. A trough should then approach the south east of Australia later Thursday or Friday. The outlook for the weekend shows the probability of cold fronts moving across south eastern Australia and Tasmania. TEMPERATURES. The present cool to mild conditions over the south east of the Australian continent will be replaced by a warming trend from Wednesday to Friday, although overnight temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be cold over Victoria and southern New South Wales. With the approaching trough and cold fronts on Friday and Saturday a cooler trend appears likely from Saturday .The northern half of Australia will remain very warm to hot with higher than average temperatures affecting much of the inland northwest and western S.A from Wednesday to Friday. RAINFALL. Apart from showers affecting western Tasmania today and Wednesday, Australia will remain mostly dry...Isolated storms should effect the Kimberley area and the top end of the Northern Territory through most of the week, isolated storms may also affect to Cape York Peninsula during this period also, isolated showers and thunder may develop within the vicinity of the trough moving from West Australia today towards South Australia and the eastern states to Friday. More active frontal activity later Friday and Saturday should see more general showers and local storms across south eastern Australia and Tasmania. Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services Victoria Australia (n.m.p.)
2	Luke Garde (Clifton Springs) Damage Report	Clifton Springs had lots of damage to trees and some houses. I went out and looked at the damage. There was an 80 foot tall tree snapped in half and lots of trees where uprooted. Aerials were snapped on houses, and roof tiles were lifted. I have plotted on the Melways were the damage was and have taken about 24 pictures of the damage. I have a pic of the 80 foot tall tree and a pic of a tree that has fallen on the fence and then the fence has fallen on the car. I have spoken to some locals in these areas and they told me what they saw.
2	Clyve Herbert (Leopold) Damage Report	I checked wind damage today (Monday 2.10.00) around the Clifton Springs and Drysdale area. ( Luke Garde checked yesterday). The track which was associated with Saturdays active cold front showed damage over a width of about 2 to 3 kilometres wide, inside this area was a very narrow core of moderate to very local severe damage mostly to trees. The central core of main damage was between 100 and 300 meters wide, the line of damage extended across the Bellarine Peninsular from Clifton Springs to St Leonard's, about 17klm and appeared to move from a bearing of 290 degrees (to be confirmed). Judging by tree damage i.e. very large and healthy pine trees either snapped off or uprooted, winds in the central core may have exceeded 160kph .All damaged trees show a windthrown direction from between 250 and 290 degrees, there is very little evidence to support tornadic origin, but appears to be associated with a very mobile downburst situation moving along the cold front, there were embedded thunderstorms in the immediate area with lightning and hail reported along the damage track. Wind gusts recorded in the Geelong region were consistently between 100 and 114kph, the official BOM site at Point Wilson recorded 111kph. More to come later.
30/9	Dane Newman (Kilsyth)	Squall line just came through Kilsyth (6.35pm) with very heavy rain and small hail and very squally winds. We had 5mm of rain in 5 minutes but no thunder or lightning. Temperature has now (6.45pm) dropped back to 11c.
30/9	Jane ONeill (Bayswater)	As the front went through I recorded a rain rate over a period of 5 minutes equivalent to 130mm/hr. A burst of small hail at the end of it too. 10.5mm rain total.
30/9	Lindsay Smail (Grovedale)	Storm front reached Geelong around 4.45 pm and contributed westerly gusts of 114 kph at Lovely Banks, 111 kph at Point Wilson, 90 kph at Mt Duneed and 75 kph at St Albans Park. Much tree damage at Drysdale-St Leonards area of Bellarine Peninsula but no structural damage has been reported as yet although I'd be surprised if a few roofs didn't succumb. Short hail burst at Grovedale (5.15 pm) and lightning reported from St Leonards around 5.30 pm. But only 5-6 mm of rain generally.
30/9		Radar loops of the squall line that went through Melbourne
30/9	Clyve Herbert	Hello weather enthusiasts. A deep low west of Tasmania on Saturday will move to the south east of Tasmania by Sunday. The associated fast moving cold front will pass across the south east of South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and southern New South Wales during Saturday and early Sunday. A colder southwest to westerly airflow will then affect the southeast of Australia including Tasmania. The baric ridge will strengthen in a line extending from just south of Perth to Adelaide on Sunday then extending a ridge across northern Victoria towards Sydney from Sunday to Monday. The coastal fringe of south east S.A and Victoria will probably remain in a westerly flow until at least Monday . Tasmania should remain affected by a moderate to strong Westerly flow throughout the forecast period. RAINFALL...The cold front on Saturday should bring general showers across southeast SA ,Victoria and Tasmania. Heavy falls are possible over western Tasmania, isolated thunderstorms are a risk over western and mountain areas of Tasmania and southwest Victoria on Saturday, there is also a slight risk of thunder over central Victoria and along the Victorian alps. With a strengthening ridge pushing towards south east Australia later Sunday, showers should then contract to southern coastal areas of south-eastern SA and Victoria and tend to drizzle patches. Tasmania should remain in a showery westerly flow until at least Tuesday. TEMPERATURES.... A colder air mass will reach the south east of Australia later Saturday, much cooler conditions will affect this region until at least Monday,Tasmania may see very cold conditions later Saturday and Sunday, night temperatures over sheltered inland areas of southeast Australia may become cold enough for light frosts. Snowfalls should affect higher ground of Tasmania later Saturday and Sunday, some snow may also develop over the higher Victorian mountains later Saturday and briefly Sunday possibly down to 1100m. The north of Australia will remain very warm with isolated storm activity throughout the forecast period. RISKS... Strong winds should affect southern and mountain areas of Victoria and Tasmania Saturday and early Sunday. Storm force winds may affect the southwest of Tasmania Saturday. Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services.