November 2000 Forecast Outlook, Discussion
& Report Page
Victoria |
| Date |
Name |
Information |
| 12 |
Clyve Herbert |
Sunday
12/11/2000 to Wednesday 15/11/2000 Greetings all weather lovers.
A persistent high pressure belt located across the Southern Ocean south of Australia is
the major factor in a slow moving synoptic situation. A very slow moving and active trough
is affecting eastern Australia from the tropics to Tasmania - this trough is wedged
between a high cell in the Tasman Sea near New Zealand and another high pressure cell west
of Tasmania. Another persistent trough (heat) is affecting Western Australia.
A feature of the east Australian trough is the very high levels of available moisture over
south-eastern parts of the continent.
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS....
The high pressure cell west of Tasmania is slowly strengthening and will become the
primary high pressure centre today (Sunday 12.11.00) and Monday - this cell will then edge
slowly eastward probably by later Tuesday or Wednesday to become located east of Tasmania.
The persistent trough over eastern Australia will weaken slightly over the next two days
but will remain active - it is likely that the east Australian trough will then become
absorbed into a broad north to northeast flow ahead of another trough approaching south -
eastern Australia by Wednesday.
TEMPERATURES.....
All of the north of Australia will remain very warm to hot - very high temperatures will
affect parts of central and northern W.A. through most of the week. The remainder of
Australia will remain warm although milder conditions will affect coastal areas of
south-eastern Australia to at least Tuesday.
RAINFALL......
Most of eastern Australia will remain under the influence of a trough with widespread
showers and thunderstorms some heavy. Most activity will be mainly east of a line
from Melbourne to Alice Springs. Most of northern Australia will receive occasional
afternoon storm and shower activity. Patchy rain and local storms should also affect
the goldfields area of W.A. today and spreading to western S.A.by Monday.
Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services
Victoria Australia (n.m.p.) |
| 11 |
Jane ONeill FUNNEL |
Videoed a
5minute funnel to the SSW of Moolort (near Maryborough) - 1848AEDT |
| 11 |
Andrew McDonald / Chris
Gribben FUNNEL |
Videoed
multiple funnels in the Swan Hill area this morning. Details to come |
| 11 |
Lindsay Smail FUNNEL |
Twin funnels
sighted by a reliable observer (farmer) from Wurdi Boluc, over the Deans Marsh area about
35-40 km SW of Geelong on Friday (10th) at 2.20 pm. They lasted 10 mins and did not touch
down. Two other confirmations; they were apparently photographed and I'll be chasing this
up on Monday. Around the same time two people were struck by lightning at Lorne (golfers
of course) and one woman was hospitalised but OK. Several intensive t/s cells on Friday
afternoon in the region: rainfall at Lethbridge 23.5 mm in 10 mins, Lorne 25 mm in 10
mins, Sheoaks 30 mm over 24 hrs. Urban Geelong received a trace. |
| 10 |
Andrew McDonald |
Lots and
lots of mid level moisture today. It is a slight concern as storms will probably eventuate
into rain (although the initial storms should be quite explosive). Today reminds me a lot
of March 2 1999 when the squall line developed to the SW (over Geelong producing the meso
over Clyve) and moved NE up to Melbourne. Lots of mid level moisture, not much in terms of
shear, strong early convection, etc (also reminds me of October 19th 2000 but the synoptic
set-up is a bit different). Interesting to note that AVN is going for a Meso Upper Level
Low (if there is such a thing) to pass over central Victoria at prime time this arvo which
if it occurs could see things take a further step up. Going by past experiences such as
this I will say that severe storms are likely today and the vicinity of the trough will be
the best place to be (although if I had a choice I'd head N to Charleville into -12 LI's
and 4500jkg CAPE's. |
| 10 |
Harald Richter (USA) |
My general
difficulty with a Friday VIC forecast is a lack of focal boundaries/points in the data I
have available. In the 20 UTC surface data I see a surface trough running from W of MEL
all the way up to Darwin. PBL moisture in VIC looks decent throughout most of the
state, with a hint of an enhanced moist axis extending from N central VIC due N. WV
shows a weak upper-level cyclonic circulation sagging SE towards TAS with a hint of a
dry slot that entered SW VIC a while ago. The leading edge of the dry slot is
already E of MEL. Some cooler air aloft probably rotated around to the N side of the
circulation centre and is presently associated with convection S of Cape Otway.
Maybe nature is giving us a hint here?Projected flow aloft looks too weak for any
severe weather in VIC, but the model fields I looked at were so smooth that it
wasn't funny. The +18 h Mesolaps forecast for 06 UTC shows a hint of a meridional
near-surface confluence/convergence line along the VIC/SA border - a long way to go for an
18 h model forecast on the kilometre scale. I'd scan for areas with a few hours of
sunshine which will have an advantage. |
| 6 |
Clyve Herbert |
Monday
6/11/2000 to Friday 10/11/2000
Hello all weather watchers.
A moderate strength high pressure
cell located near 43 degrees south just west of Tasmania is slow moving, this system
will amoeba slowly towards the east today and be located at about 41degrees south and just
east of Tasmania later Tuesday. A rather deep although shallow heat low complex over
West Australia is in the process of combining with a mid latitude trough and cold
frontal bands moving towards the Australian Bight region. A rather persistent and
slow moving trough running through eastern Queensland and northern N.S.W. will contract a
little north today and weaken slowly.
TREND OUTLOOK....The
trough over W.A. today will move slowly eastward following the retreating low level ridge
and move towards south-eastern Australia by later Wednesday and Thursday. A
weakening trough over southeast Q.L.D. will persist and extend a weak trough southward
along the dividing range and as far south as the Northeast of Victoria by later Tuesday.
Cold frontal activity will continue to move from well south of the Australian Bight and
reinforce the trough over W.A as these systems migrate towards eastern Australia
during this week.
TEMPERATURES.....Warmer
conditions will develop across south eastern Australia from Monday although it will remain
rather cooler along the coast of Victoria until later Tuesday, much of eastern Australia
will see warm to hot conditions from Tuesday through to Thursday, with milder conditions
reaching the south of South Australia and Victoria by Thursday. The north and subtropical
inland will remain seasonally very warm to hot throughout the week. Tasmania will
experience warmer conditions by Wednesday before markedly cooler air arrives Thursday,
much of inland Tasmania should experience a cold night Monday and early Tuesday with some
frost possible.
RAINFALL......The
persistent trough over eastern Q.L.D. will promote the continuation of sporadic afternoon
and evening storm activity, an upper trough extending from the Northern Territory will
also result in areas of patchy rain today and Tuesday especially over and near the gulf
country. A strong upper ridge will suppress most storm activity over the western top end
and northern W.A. today and Tuesday, but a return to showers and a few storms in these
areas by Wednesday through to Friday. The developing trough over Western Australia
should see patchy rain and a few storms move into south-eastern Australia by later
Wednesday and Thursday. This trough shows signs of stalling over inland N.S.W. on Friday
with the risk of more general storms. Isolated storms are also possible along the dividing
range of N.S.W from Tuesday to Thursday. Some storm activity over eastern Queensland may
bring heavy falls today and Tuesday with a chance of some storms becoming severe, a
slight risk of strong storm activity also exists over the far northeast of N.S.W.
Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services Victoria Australia
(n.m.p.)
|
| 4 |
|
ASWA Victoria meeting -
Pancake Parlour, 550 Doncaster Road, Doncaster - 9am |
| 3 |
Clyve Herbert |
Friday
3/11/2000 to Monday 6/11/2000 Greetings
all weather lovers.
A weak high pressure ridge extends across the southern coastline of Australia from west of
Perth to southern Victoria, a large and slow moving high pressure cell is located
southeast of New Zealand, and a trough dissects this baric ridge from east of Tasmania
through eastern N.S.W. and then to central Q.L.D. A heat trough and low is moving
slowly east southeast across eastern W.A..
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS.
The baric ridge should see a separate high pressure cell develop and strengthen southwest
of Adelaide today (Friday 03.11.00). This high appears to be showing a tendency for
slow movement - this will allow weak cold fronts to skirt the far southeast coast of South
Australia and southern areas of Victoria. The high pressure cell southwest of Adelaide
should edge slowly south-eastward over the next several days and then join up with the
high near New Zealand by Monday. A trough should persist from tropical Queensland
through eastern inland New south Wales through much of the period - the trough over W.A.
should also persist over the next several days.
TEMPERATURES..
Most of inland Australia will remain warm to hot through to Monday, very hot conditions
appear likely over east central areas of W.A. and through the interior of Queensland, cool
to mild temperatures will affect the southern coastal areas of Australia, with a warming
trend from Monday over the southeast of the continent.
RAINFALL...
Areas favoured for rainfall are eastern Q.L.D., the dividing range of N.S.W - these areas
may see afternoon showers and storm activity with the possibility of localised heavy
falls, there will be a tendency for more frequent activity to contract to northern N.S.W.
and Q.L.D. from Saturday to Monday. Local storms will also affect the tropical north of
Australia throughout the forecast period. Only coastal showers and drizzle will
affect Victoria and the west and south coast of Tasmania from Friday to early Sunday.
Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services Victoria Australia
(n.m.p.) |