March 2003 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria

Information

Current Victorian and Australian Conditions

Overview & Discussion: The low to the west of New Zealand deepened slightly and continued to maintain its holding pattern courtesy of the high in the Pacific courtesy of the high over South America..... meanwhile to the west, the high in the Bight which had been feeding a ridge along the east coast, retracted westward allowing the trough over the southeast corner of the country to slide northeast and a southeasterly flow to become established in its wake. The upper cold pool which moved along the New South Wales coast during Sunday will weaken and move east on Monday. The high in the Bight will restrengthen and ridge east again during Monday with mainly fine conditions after early fogs across the southeast of the country.

Scattered showers and storms over the northeastern corner of New South Wales and into southern Queensland were reported during Sunday with widespread showers and isolated storms associated with the trough through the Queensland inland.

To the west of a ridge through South Australia, the complex trough (analysed to full height) has triggered widespread showers and rain periods with isolated storms, with activity picking up in frequency and intensity   as the upper low moved ashore during the day. This broad area of rain & showers will move further east during Monday to affect the Eucla, and possibly the far west of South Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches on and south of the ranges with isolated fog patches likely in low lying areas. A cool day south of the ranges with warmer conditions to the north.
NSW: Isolated showers along the coast, more frequent in the northern half. Isolated morning fogs.
Queensland: Isolated showers and storms over much of the inland, east of the trough axis. Showers along the northern half of the east coast in a moist onshore flow. Isolated showers and storms over northern Cape York.
NT: Isolated showers and storms confined mainly to the north coast, more frequent in the west.
WA: Widespread showers, tending to rain periods at times, with isolate embedded storms in the south, extending to the Eucla during Monday.  Mainly fine in the Interior and the north with some high cloud moving through. 
SA: Isolated fog patches and drizzle in the south.  Mainly fine during the day except for the far west of the state as the cloudband associated with the complex trough over southern Western Australia encroaches & produces isolated light showers.
Tasmania: Continuing cool and showery throughout, with showers more frequent for a time with a front passing across the state.

Overview & Discussion: The baric ridge continues to lie to the south of Tasmania and is aligned negative longitudinal, cutting off the low to the west of New Zealand.  This low has remained quasi stationary for the fast few days and if anything, is actually retrograding slowly...while deepening - a rather unusual situation!

The west coast trough and associated upper low has also remained quasi stationary and will remain slow moving again during Sunday, and the only particularly mobile elements of the entire synoptic situation during the past 24-36 hours have been the trough lying through eastern Australia which has been rather mobile to the west of the ranges, and a couple of mobile upper cold pools (sub-synoptic in Victoria's case). Widespread showers and storms from the south-central Victorian region as far north as the Central Western region and Central coast of New South Wales have been recorded through Saturday with hail to 4cm on the Southern Tablelands.

Further showers and storms over the Top End during Saturday as the area of tropical moisture over New Guinea drifted southwards again and will continue to be steered westwards by the upper flow.

The high in the Bight may strengthen during Sunday, with the ridge along the east coast possibly weakening.  The trough lying through Victoria has drifted west during Saturday and will move east during Sunday as the ridge along the east coast begins to break down and a pressure surge aligned with the front passing south of the continent may drag it to the east.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers and storms over the northeast and eastern ranges during Saturday night. Showers over south central Victoria clearing through Saturday night. Chance of isolated showers during Sunday along the ranges, slowly clearing from the west as the trough drifts east. Fine in the north.
NSW: Shower and storm activity should drift east along the ranges and coast during Sunday and begin to clear the southern part of the state and the trough moves further east.  Fine in the west of the state.
Queensland: Showers and storms continuing over the tropics during Sunday with isolated showers and storms over much of the inland associated with the remnant trough.   In the south, the chance of showers and storms in the southeast corner.
NT: Scattered showers and storms along the northern coast.  Mainly fine inland with patchy cloud in the north.
WA: Little change from Saturday in the south - continuing showers and isolated storms over much of the southern half with some reasonable falls with this low moving system. Activity clearing from the west coast.
SA: Remaining mainly fine throughout the state after early fogs in the south.  Becoming warmer in the north.
Tasmania: Scattered showers continuing throughout with the chance of a storm in the north and northeast clearing out Sunday.  Cool to mild.

Overview & Discussion: The high is aligned negative longitudinal to the south of Tasmania with a deepening low to the west of the North Island of New Zealand, showing signs of slipping a little further west as it deepens. A trough lies southward through eastern Australia from the Gulf of Carpentaria with an area of tropical convection drifting northwesterly across New Guinea and away from the northern coast.

The ridge along the New South Wales coast remains in place, trapping the trough to its west and this feature is also likely to be part of the synoptic setup for the remainder of the weekend. A developing upper low over the southeast of the continent during Friday night and Saturday will destabilise the area further with showers and storms along the central and eastern ranges more likely than Friday as upper temperatures cool and more moisture is advected into the area from the southeast.

Another small upper cold pool over the New South Wales central coast is triggering storms during Saturday morning - there are a number of sub-synoptic cold 'eddies' over eastern Australia at the moment and these can be readily identified by small areas of cloud, seemingly unrelated to anything on the surface chart. Once again southeastern Queensland looks likely to see further showers and storms.

The current surface and midlevel troughing over Western Australia will remain slow moving through Saturday ahead of a deepening upper trough approaching from the west. Widespread showers and storms will continue through Saturday and move further east during Sunday as moisture levels continue to rise.  To the east, South Australia remains under a surface ridge supported by an upper ridge with little change expected.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle and fog patches on and south of the ranges clearing early morning to leave a conditionally unstable atmosphere over the southern and eastern parts of the state.  Isoalted showers and storms are likely along the central and eastern ranges, more frequent in the east and northeast of the state. Dry and fine in the west and northwest.
NSW: Scattered showers and storms over much of the of the state, to the east of the trough axis.  An area of focus is a small upper cold pool moving north along the central and northern coast during Saturday. Showers and storms are also likely over the southern Tablelands. Fine in the west
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms over the far northern Cape, with isolated showers and storms associated with the trough running through the inland.   The southeast corner is again a chance, mainly during the afternoon.
NT: The chance of a shower or storm, mainly in the north. Fine elsewhere.
WA: Widespread showers and storms concentrated over the southwestern quarter of the state again, with some activity beginning to spread towards the Eucla and southern part of the Interior.  Isolated showers and storms in the Kimberley.
SA: Morning fogs in the south, clearing to a fine day throughout.
Tasmania: Scattered showers throughout.  Chance of a storm near the Bass Strait coast.

Overview & Discussion: The trough lying through eastern Australia southward from the Gulf of Carpentaria continues to deepen southwards and is now as far south as Victoria, with associated conditional instability along its length. An upper level cold pool over northern central New South Wales adds to the complexity and is likely to provide southeastern Queensland with yet another day of showers and storms.The ridge along the east coast has strengthened and this will ensure that the 'troughiness' remains during the next few days.

The west coast trough has deepened inland of the coast and with a mid level trough in the area, is triggering scattered showers and storms over the southwestern quarter of Western Australia with a slow moving upper ridge to its east. The high in the Bight is ridging southeast below Tasmania and will follow its ridge during the next day or so, and also cut off the low in the eastern Tasman Sea. This low with associated upper trough is likely to deepen during the next 24 - 48 hours and bring widespread rain to New Zealand.

Scattered showers and storms are likely over the very far north of the Cape York and Top End areas, with only isolated storms inland.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle and fog patches on and south of the ranges clearing.   Conditionally unstable along the ranges with isolated showers and storms likely on and possibly north of the ranges associated with the trough extending south from New South Wales.
NSW: Isolated showers and storms associated with the trough lying through the state west of the ranges, more frequent near the upper low in the north.  Scattered showers along the northern coast.
Queensland:  Isolated showers and storms over the northern parts of Cape York, and also associated with the trough extending southwards through the state.  More frequent showers and scattered storms in the south and southeast associated with an upper cold pool in the area.
NT: Isolated showers and storms in the north and northeast along the coast.
WA: Scattered showers and storms continuing through the southwestern quarter of the state as the trough remains almost stationery and the mid level trough moves east.   Remaining fine in the east of the state.
SA:  Mainly fine after early fogs in the south.
Tasmania: Cloudy with scattered showers throughout.

Overview & Discussion: The high lying broadly south of Tasmania is ridging northward along the east coast and has trapped a deepening ridge lying through eastern Australia - to the west, the baric ridge hugs the northern coastline of the Bight. An area of vorticity in the upper levels became apparent off Mt Gambier during Wednesday and is drifting generally east. The trough lying through eastern Australia will drift slightly west during Thursday as the ridge along the coast strengthens.

Through northern South Australia a weak upper trough is becoming more organised as it drifts east into western Queensland, and over the next couple of days will interact with the surface trough lying through the area - watch for scattered storms and some possible heavy falls.

A front passing south of Western Australia should be steered southeast by the high in the Bight and leave another remnant trough in the 'collection' in the southeast of the continent, while the west coast trough should deepen southward along the Western Australian coast with further instability associated with another upper trough moving into the area.

An area of positive convection has become more organised north of Cape York during the past day or three, and should be monitored as it shows sign of slightly improved outflow.

The upper synoptic setup may almost be more interesting during the next few days than that at the surface.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Chance of showers and the risk of a storm along the ranges, mainly in the northeast and east of the state as a trough deepens through the next few days and moisture levels build - morning fogs south of the ranges, becoming more likely on Friday morning.
NSW: Isolated showers along the coast, mainly north of Sydney.  Scattered showers and storms west of the ranges, east of the trough axis lying through the state.
Queensland:  Showers and storms over the northern tropics and the Gulf of Carpentaria with some heavy falls, spreading south and west through Thursday. Scattered showers and storms associated with the trough lying through the inland, becoming more frequent, and with some heavy falls. Day 8 for the southeast?  maybe...
NT: Showers and storms in the northeast at first and spreading west with some heavy falls. Isoalted showers with the risk of a storm in the south, moreso in the eastern parts.
WA: Scattered showers and isolated storm in the Interior drifting east.   Showers and storms in the west from the Pilbara, through the Gascoyne and into the Goldfields, becoming more widespread and frequent with the approach of the upper disturbance. Some heavy falls are likely.
SA:  Isolated showers and the chance of a storm in the north, contracting east through Thursday and Friday.
Tasmania: Showers mainly in the northwest at first and spreading east.   The risk of a storm near Bass Strait.

Overview & Discussion: The baric ridge hugs the southern coastline from the west of the Bight to South Australia and then is bisected by a trough deepening southward through eastern Australia. A weakening cold front will pass across the southeast with little if any effect, except for a remnant trough combining with the trough which has been deepening southwards and will likely lag near the northeastern ranges of Victoria and to the west of the ranges in New South Wales.

An upper ridge has kept conditions fine over the southeast corner during Tuesday while the complex trough lying through the Tasman Sea is contracting further north.  Northeast New South Wales and southeastern Queensland have had storms for the past few days courtesy of the troughs to their east, and west.

During Wednesday, the baric ridge will continue to lie to the south of the continent with the trough through Queensland and New South Wales continuing to deepen southwards and absorb the trough progressing east. As the ridge builds along the east coast, the surface trough in the Tasman will drift east and shower and storm activity will decrease. 

Cloud in Western Australia is responding to a complex of deep lows in the Southern Ocean (951 & 956hPa) and will develop further during Wednesday without moving far east while the trough down the west coast begins to form.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated fog patches in the south, chance of drizzle in the southwest corner with the passage of the front to the south. Fine throughout, but keep an eye on the northeast of the state as the trough becomes established.
NSW: Isolated showers along the north coast in a moist onshore flow.   Mainly dry elsewhere after isolated morning fogs.  Mild to warm conditions south to north.
Queensland:  Isolated showers and storms over Cape York, becoming more frequent through Wednesday with a cross-equatorial flow edging into the area. Isolated showers and storms associated with the trough drifting west inland of the ranges, but lingering near the southeast corner.
NT: Isolated showers along the far north coast and the chance of a storm in the southwest.
WA: Scattered showers and storms over the western Kimberley area and the northern Interior.  Shower and storms developing in the vicinity of the trough inland of the west coast.
SA:  High cloud moving away to the southeast, little if any precipitation.   Morning fogs likely near the coast, particularly in the southeast,  Fine.
Tasmania: Drizzle patches in the western half of the state, mainly in the south. Morning fogs, then fine & cool in the east.

Overview & Discussion: The high has remained slow moving in the Bight and is ridging strongly to the southeast beneath Tasmania and the troughs lying through the Tasman Sea, and will continue to move southeast during Monday.

A small (almost sub-synoptic) closed 850hPa low near the southern extent of the trough to the east of Tasmania has remained stationary for the past 24 hours, with the thermal trough also moving off the coast during the day. This troughing will remain slow moving during Monday with a strongish ridge already to its east and being further supported by the high moving across the southern Tasman.

A ridge of high pressure will build towards the southeastern corner of the country through Sunday night and Monday.

The complex surface and upper trough moving through the southern half of Western Australia has triggered scattered showers and storms through Sunday and will likely continue with this associated activity as it moves slowly east during Monday.

What is interesting is the moisture plume emanating from the Indian Ocean near 15°S  to the south of India feeding into this trough. The parent low in the western Bight is being steered southeast around the back of the high to its east and will weaken through the next 24 hours.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers along coastlines exposed to the easterly flow, clearing Monday morning.  Isolated fogs mainly in the south.  A mainly fine day throughout.
NSW: Isolated showers and storms hanging on in the far northeastern corner of the sate.  Isolated showers along the coast, clearing.  Cool to mild conditions, mainly fine after isolated morning fog patches mainly over the southern highlands.
Queensland:  Scattered showers and storms east of the trough currently lying west of the ranges, and expected to move slightly west during Monday.
NT: Isolated showers and storms in the northwest of the Top End.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Scattered showers and isolated storms continuing over the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts and also associated with the complex trough moving east through the southern half of the state. Showers to follow in the southwest.
SA:  Cloud in the south with isolated showers in the southeast corner clearing to a fine day over the state with increasing temperatures in the north.
Tasmania: Light showers in the east of the state.

Overview & Discussion: The low in the Tasman, although it has filled in since Friday night, has remained slow moving, as has the upper support for it.  The surface high in the Bight has continued to ridge to the southeast and looks to cut the surface low off from the westerly flow and it may be pressure forced northward through the Tasman relative to its position on Saturday night. It continues to exert an influence over the entire southeastern corner of the country, with stream showers continuing over southern Victoria.   To the north the trough over northeast New South Wales continues to linger in the very far northeast corner, also affecting southeastern Queensland.  Further north again, the trough lying west of the ridge along the coast has triggered showers and storms and is like to continue this tomorrow as the trough wanders about the state...east to west, west to east, but remaining inland of the coast.  Showers and storms will remain east of the trough axis.

Seasonal shower and storm activity over the tropical part of the continent has decreased during the past day or two except over the northern parts of the Top End and Kimberley and Pilbara coastlines.The trough along the west coast, together with the approaching surface low has destabilised conditions over southern Western Australia with widespread showers and storms associated.   This complex will drift eastwards during Sunday. Conditions over South Australia, today, cool with cloudy periods in the south, will continue during Sunday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers on and south of the ranges continuing, with highest totals east of ~143°E.  Remaining fine in the north.
NSW: Showers and storms in the far northeastern corner associated with the trough drifting slowly away to the northeast.
Queensland:  Showers and storms, most frequent in the southeastern corner.   Isolated showers along the coast, with showers and storms associated with the inland westward-wandering trough during Sunday. Dry west of the trough.
NT: Isolated showers and storms along the northern coast of the Top End.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Scattered showers and storms continuing along the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts during Sunday.  Showers and storms in the west associated with the complex trough system, spreading east during the latter part of the weekend.
SA:  Remaining cool with showers along the coast continuing.  Dry in the north.
Tasmania: Drizzle, with heaviest patches in the east and south.  Cool.

Place to be: playing the Queensland trough

Overview & Discussion: As the low has moved slowly southeast past Tasmania it has filled in from 998hPa to 1003hPa since 4am Friday. The high in the Bight to its west is cradling the low (almost cutting it off) and steering it towards New Zealand. The high over New Zealand extends a ridge across the Tasman Sea and along the Queensland coast while an interesting (but small) patch of convection has developed northwest of New Caledonia.  A complex series of fronts and troughs extending from the low in the Tasman lies across northeastern New South Wales and from southeastern Queensland towards the Gulf and has triggered storms along the troughs during Friday. This trough will wander about the eastern areas of Queensland, blocked from moving offshore by the ridge along the coast, hence there will be scattered showers and storms east of the trough axis.

Light snow over the higher peaks of the mainland alpine regions on Thursday night and Friday morning melted as warmer midlevel air moved in during the later morning and afternoon. The high in the Bight is strengthening and will remain slow moving during Saturday.

The trough along the west coast of Western Australia deepened southward during Friday, and significant mid and upper level moisture is moving into this trough from the Indian Ocean, and with the approach of a low near to 35°S, conditions should destabilise during Friday night and Saturday with showers and isolated storms developing over much of the southwest quarter of the state. A weak cross equatorial moisture flow will help maintain showers with isolated storms along the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts, but much of the northern third of the continent currently shows a lack of mid and upper moisture, which will limit shower activity.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers on and south of the ranges during Friday night and Saturday morning will clear from the west.  A cold night inland, especially north of the ranges.
NSW: Scattered showers and isolated storms over the northeast corner of the state will clear out later Saturday.  Cooler conditions behind the wind change and becoming fine with the exception of Isolated light showers over the higher parts of the southeast.
Queensland:  Scattered showers and storms along and east of the trough lying inland through the eastern half of the state.  Fine in the west.
NT: Isolated showers and storms, mainly along the northwestern coast of the Top End.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Isolated showers and storms over the Kimberley and Pilbara.   Scattered showers with isolated storms over much of the southwestern quarter of the state under the influence of the surface and midlevel troughs.
SA: Isolated showers along the coast, clearing from the west during Saturday.   Morning fogs in the southeast.  Cool.
Tasmania:  Stream showers continuing across the state, mainly in the south and along the eastern coast.  Cool.

Overview & Discussion: The low has moved southeast across the northeastern tip of Tasmania and will continue to drift towards the central southern Tasman Sea. Mid level cold air is being transported around the west of the low but is warming a little as it moves north.  Sleet and wet snow is still probable over the peaks in the alpine areas, mainly during Thursday night, but showers on and south of the Victorian ranges are likely to continue through Friday.

An active trough extends from the front moving through New South Wales to the Gulf of Carpentaria, with widespread storms along its length. The high to the west of the low near Tasmania is ridging both northeast and southeast, and may cut the low of before it reaches the New Zealand longitudes. 

The trough developing along the west coast will continue deepening through Friday, and is ingesting good moisture (both at the surface and in the mid levels) from the Indian Ocean - isolated showers with the chance of a storm associated with this trough are likely.

A rather interesting area of convection is now located over the Timor Sea to the northwest of Darwin and should be watched. A complex trough and low pressure system to the southwest of Western Australia is identified to the height of the tropopause and is moving in a generally northeasterly direction at present around the upper trough, but looks likely to peak west of the continent, with minimal influence on Western Australian weather inland away from the coast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Remaining cool, particularly in the south with showers on and south of the ranges continuing, before becoming isolated from the west as the low near Tasmania moves away.  Chance of sleet or wet snow on the peaks, mainly during Thursday night.   Chance of rain periods under the influence of returning cloudbands, mainly east of Melbourne. Chance of a storm in the south or along the ranges.
NSW:  Scattered showers and isolated storms in the northeast, with showers persisting over the southern ranges, with the chance of sleet or light snow over higher peaks on Thursday night. Cooler in the south.
Queensland:  Scattered showers and storms becoming more widespread through the afternoon, extending along the trough from the Gulf of Carpentaria to the southeast of the state.  Showers continuing along the coast. Dry over the inland away from the trough.
NT: Isolated showers and storms, mainly concentrated along convergence lines north of ~18°S.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Isolated showers and storms over the Kimberley and northern Interior.   Scattered showers and storms associated with the deepening trough along the west coast, with activity becoming more frequent and widespread over the southwestern quarter of the state as the upper trough approaches.
SA: Showers in the south, mainly in the southeast and clearing later Friday and into the early part of the weekend.  Fine and warm in the north.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, with periods of rain, heaviest in the west and south, with isolated sleet on the higher peaks possible during Thursday night. Cool to cold.

Overview & Discussion: The dramatic increase in both the size and the depth of the cloudband inhabiting the Bight at present has been in response to both a strengthening of the upper jet and the presence of a baroclinic zone.

A deep and complex pair of lows in t he Southern Ocean with rather strong highs over New Zealand and to the west of Australia have served to also dramatically increase surface pressure changes over relatively short distances during the past 12 hours. Gale force winds are likely over southeastern Australia peaking during Wednesday.  Moisture is being drawn into this system from the tropical Indian Ocean and increasing vorticity in the Bight should result in a closed low developing within the next 12 hours or so. A most complex set up coupled with a deepening upper trough, with a broad thermal trough to the west!

Moisture levels are again on the increase across the northern part of the continent, with showers and isolated storms about the Top End during Tuesday and likely to continue through Wednesday. Isolated showers along the Queensland coast will become more frequent as the ridge strengthens and the outheasterly flow strengthens in response.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Strengthening northerly winds during Tuesday night and into Wednesday ahead of a front approaching the state.  Scattered showers, becoming widespread in the vicinity of the front, with the chance of some heavy falls and isolated storms, also associated.  Cooler conditions in the southwesterly flow to follow with scattered showers. Tie down unsecured objects, especially in the south.......
NSW:  Northerly winds ahead of a front moving into the west of the state during Wednesday with isolated showers and storms associated with it, mainly in the south. Colder south-southwesterly winds to follow.
Queensland:  Isolated showers and storms continuing over Cape York and also associated with the trough running through the western inland.  Isolated showers along the east coast.
NT: Isolated showers and storms mainly along the northern Top End coast.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Isoalted showers and the chance of a storm over the Kimberley and northern parts of the Interior. Isolated showers in the south should shift east and then clear through Wednesday.
SA: Cooler southwesterly flow over the south of the state with scattered showers becoming less frequent through Wednesday.  Fine in the north.
Tasmania:  Showers tending to rain periods extending through the state. Strengthening northerly winds ahead of a cooler southwesterly windshift. Later Wednesday, but more likely into Thursday will see falling temperatures and there is the risk of sleet or light snow on the higher peaks.

Overview & Discussion: The high in the Tasman Sea continued to strengthen through Monday with the ridge along the New South Wales coast being maintained and the trough, which was lying through northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, contracting northwest into Queensland. The high will drift towards New Zealand during Tuesday and strengthen with the ridge along the coast shifting north.

Cloud from a prefrontal trough ahead of the front in the Bight is moving into the western districts of southeastern Australia during Monday night after a day of fresh to strong northerly winds and a few bushfires once again breaking out in central and western Victoria. Showers and storms, particularly over Bass Strait and Tasmania during Monday night are likely to be widespread in that area. It will be interesting to monitor the trough as it moves through southeastern Australia if the ridge along the east coast persists for the next few days.

The low in the Southern Ocean has continued to deepen to be 953hPa by 10amEDST Monday, while the active upper trough becomes more negative longitudinal, as the southern extent moves east faster than that in the north. The cloudband has been thickening within the baroclinic zone in the Bight during the day, and is likely to continue to do so through Tuesday as it moves east. Moisture feeding into this trough and frontal zone is being sourced from the near-equator region of the Indian Ocean. The front will continue to slide southeast (across the top of itself), while moving east.  Areas remaining under the cloudband for any lengthy period may receive reasonable falls.

The high moving in from the west will ridge around the northern coastline of the Bight, but weaken during Tuesday, while keeping the deep low well to the south. Worth watching is the (rather disorganised) area of convection between the Top End and PNG for the next day or three.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated fog patches in the south. Remaining warm through most of the day with increasing cloud in the southwest and west from Monday night and into Tuesday. Strengthening northerly winds shifting southwesterly in the southwest of the state later Tuesday. 
NSW:  Warm northerly winds across the state, remaining mainly dry.
Queensland:  Isolated showers and storms over the Cape York area, northwest of the state, with the risk of an isolated storm further southeast through the trough.   Isolated showers along the central and northeastern coasts.
NT: Scattered showers and storms mainly over the northern and western Top End.   Fine elsewhere.
WA: Scattered showers and storms over the Kimberley and northern Interior. Showers in the south associated with the passage of a front across the south of the state. Mainly fine elsewhere. Becoming cooler in the far southwest.
SA: Remaining hot through much of Tuesday with a cooler windshift along the coast.  Increasing cloud in the south, but the front won't affect far inland, with only isolated showers possible along the coast.
Tasmania:  Showers extending to rain periods, more predominant in the west and areas remaining under the primary cloudband.

Overview & Discussion: The high moved east from the Bight into the Tasman Sea during Sunday and the ridge along the coast prevented the trough from escaping to the east.  With an upper trough in attendance, shower and storm activity was widespread over the northeastern quarter of New South Wales and southern Queensland. The trough will continue to drift from New South Wales into Queensland through Monday, with continued shower and storm activity. In the north of Queensland, a line of storms developed across Cape York indicative of an area of convergence to the south of the ITCZ.

A broad upper high helped stabilise the weather over much of the western and southern parts of the continent with 850hPa (1,500m) temperatures over western Australia in the 24-27°C range - this translates to surface temperatures near or greater than 35°C ! and will become an influence on the weather in southeastern Australia during the early part of the week.

A strongly baroclinic area moving through the Bight ahead of a front crossing the southwest corner during Sunday night will continue to trigger storms, mainly in the southeastern Bight, and is followed by a large cold air field to its west. Strengthening north-northwesterly winds and a sharp temperature increase will precede this front into the southeast during Monday and part of Tuesday ahead of a significant temperature fall and developing showers in a deep southwesterly flow.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated fog patches on and south of the ranges in the morning. Strengthening northerly winds and increasing temperatures through Monday.
NSW:  The trough will drift a little west as it pivots out of the state during Monday.  Isoalted showers, mainly along the northern coast will clear to a mainly fine day throughout, with strengthening northwesterly winds moving into the far southwest of the state later.
Queensland:  Isolated showers and storms continuing over the Cape York area, with isolated showers along the coast, mainly north of ~22°S.  Showers and storms developing in the south with the movement of the trough into the area. Mainly fine in the southwest.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over the Top End, mainly in the west.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Isolated showers and storms over the Kimberley and northern Interior. Scattered showers along the southern coastline with the passage of the trough and fronts.
SA: Increasing temperatures throughout the state. Strengthening northwesterly winds ahead of a southwesterly change approaching the state.
Tasmania:  Strengthening north-northwesterly winds with increasing temperatures during Monday.  Mainly fine after early drizzle patches along the north coast.

Overview & Discussion: The high remained in the Bight during Saturday and strengthened the ridge along the east coast.  The trough through New South Wales continued to be very active during Saturday with widespread showers and storms along its length, with some severe.

An 850 low drifted across central Victoria and then proceeded northeast through the day - keep an eye on this circulation during Sunday over southern and central New South Wales... The trough will drift further east during Sunday and the high will move into the Tasman Sea and, for the first time in a while, southern Australia will almost come under the faraway influence of a deep low well to the south.

TC Erica weakened as it moved rapidly southeast while cross equatorial flow over the northern part of the continent is beginning to rebuild the moisture field. A front associated with a deep low moving through the southern Bight will cross southern Western Australia during Sunday, with a significant cold air field to follow. The trough preceding this front may trigger isolated showers in the south.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle and fog patches on and south of the ranges clearing to mostly fine with a risk only of showers and storms in the far northeast later Sunday if the trough dips far enough south.
NSW:  Showers and storms east of the trough lying near to the ranges,   keep an eye on the midlevel cold pool for the greatest instability.  Showers along the coast, dry to the west of the trough.
Queensland:  Showers and storms over the northeast tropics.  Isolated showers along the coast with the chance of isolated storms developing in the south.
NT: Only the chance of isolated shower and storm activity over the northern Top End.
WA: Mainly fine throughout the state with the risk of a shower in the trough in the south and drizzle in the far southwest with the passage of the trough.
SA: Isolated morning fog patches in the south clearing to a fine day with increasing temperatures statewide.
Tasmania:  Isolated showers on Saturday night, clearing after scattered fog patches.

Overview & Discussion: TC Erica, which reached 915hPa this morning, weakened quickly as it moved rapidly along the southwest coast of New Caledonia during the day and at 10pm is estimated near to 965hPa and moving southeast. TC Eseta weakened out with Erica's influence and exTC Craig (?) is a weak low over the north eastern Queensland tropics and is likely to drift southeast through Saturday.

The high in the Bight remained centred and ridged through Bass Strait and around the corner along the east coast, effectively halting the eastward movement of the trough lying through the eastern states. As this ridge broadens on Saturday, the trough will be forced westward in the south, before edging east again later. Showers and storms are likely to be associated with it.

A weak west coast trough will continue to reform during Saturday, just ahead of an upper trough approaching the state from the west.  Lack of moisture will ensure little if no shower or storm activity. Both troughs over Australia will remain through the weekend. A small patch of cloud over northern Western Australia is worth watching as it locates a strengthening northwesterly upper jet over the area. The upper flow across the continent is broadly meridional at the moment (ie: with a significant north-south component to the flow).

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches on and south of the ranges Friday night, clearing but remaining partly cloudy south of the ranges again.  Fine in the northern inland with the chance of showers and storms mainly in the northeast.
NSW:  The trough lying through New South Wales looks likely to meander west and then east during Saturday.  An onshore flow bringing moisture from the Tasman Sea will keep humidity levels high on the eastern side of the trough axis.  Showers and storms are likely east of and along much of the length of the trough.
Queensland:  Showers and storms continuing along the northeast tropics and Cape York.  Isoalted showers along the coast and the chance of showers and storms in the southern inland along the trough.
NT: Isoalted showers over the northern and eastern coasts of the Top End with fine conditions continuing elsewhere.
WA: Risk of very isolated showers or storms over the Kimberley, but remaining mainly fine elsewhere with the trough remaining largely inactive through Saturday.
SA: Remaining mainly fine apart from drizzle along the southeast and exposed coasts. Cloudy in the south, clear in the north and becoming warmer.
Tasmania:  Only very isolated showers during Friday night and Saturday.   Mostly fine.

Overview & Discussion: TC Erica has deepened to 915hPa and is located against the southwestern coast of New Caledonia - a serious cyclone in the process of (if it hasn't already) controlling, rather than being controlled by its surrounding environment. Most of the remaining cloudband associated with ex TC Craig has been drawn into TC Erica's circulation and moved rapidly to the east during Thursday night and Friday morning.

The ridge of high pressure through the Bass Strait area will ridge around the corner and along the east coast during Friday, while the eastern Australian trough, currently lying through Queensland and down into northern Victoria will have its eastward movement stalled by the ridge.  This sets the southeastern New South Wales / northeastern Victorian area up for lingering shower activity with the risk of a storm during the next day or three.  The high in the Bight will remain centred there during the latter part of the week and continue to bring fine weather to South Australia. A series of deep lows in the Southern Ocean will move east but remain well to the south with accompanying fronts only affecting Tasmania.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Early cloud with the chance of drizzle on and south of the ranges, clearing to a mainly fine day. Risk of a shower or storm in the northeast during the afternoon associated with a trough extending south through New South Wales.
NSW:  Showers in the northeast contracting out of the state during Friday.   Isolated showers associated with a front moving northeast, but only localised and light falls expected, mainly near the coast. Isolated showers with the risk of a storm inland west of the ranges associated with a trough extending southward through New South Wales
Queensland:  Isolated showers and storms over the far north of Cape York area and the northeast tropics. Isolated showers and storms in the southern interior associated with the trough lying through the state.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over the northeastern part of the Top End.   Fine elsewhere.
WA: Isolated showers in the south moving east.  Fine in the north with only the risk of isolated showers over the Kimberley.
SA: Isolated showers along the south coast, clearing through Friday. Fine away from the coast and becoming warm to hot.
Tasmania:  Isolated showers mainly in the west and south.  Mainly fine elsewhere.

Overview: The upper cold pool continues to do a 'gypsy' around eastern Australia and trigger further showers and storms, today over the northern inland of New South Wales and southern inland Queensland.  TC Craig wandered across the Top End and into the Gulf of Carpentaria, while Erica continued to inhabit the northern Coral Sea, moving a little south. The trough through inland eastern Australia moved a little west through the day.  Much of the continent remained dry under the influence of a surface high with strong upper support from a ridge.The jetstream is transporting cloud to the southeast onto Western Australia ahead of an active upper trough and into a surface trough ahead of a front crossing the Bight..

Discussion: TC's Erica and Craig will continue to both slide southeast during Thursday and the baric ridge will move northwards to lie just north of 40°S. The upper cold pool will continue to 'gypsy' around northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, triggering further showers and storms, with some severe. The west coast trough is beginning to reform just inland of the coast. The trough lying through inland eastern Australia will continue to hover in the west of New South Wales and Queensland before beginning to drift slowly east later Thursday as the ridge of high pressure along the eastern coast begins to weaken. A front will cross Tasmania and Bass Strait bringing a pressure surge to the southeast corner with showers possible later Thursday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers developing in the southwest and moving east with the passage of a weak front.  Warm ahead and cooler to the west.  Isoalted storms possible in the northeast and east later Thursday.  Scattered showers to follow in the south.
NSW:  Showers along the coast will contract north and mainly clear.   Chance of showers and storms in the south of the state associated with a front moving in from the west.  Isolated showers and storms in the far northern inland dependant on the direction of movement of the 'gypsy'.
Queensland: Showers, tending to rain periods with some heavy falls, and storms over much of the tropics during Thursday.  Showers and storms in the south associated with the gypsy upper low. Remaining fine in the southwestern corner.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over the northern half of the Territory.  Fine in the south.
WA: Isolated showers and storms over the Kimberley, particularly in the north. Drizzle patches along the south coast clearing.
SA: Showers developing along the southern coast with the passage of a front during Wednesday night / Thursday morning.  Fine inland.
Tasmania:  Showers in the west and south, mainly about windward coasts and ranges, with a windshift during Thursday.

Overview: The high has moved into the southern Tasman Sea and extends a ridge back through to the head of the Bight and a weaker one along the east coast of Australia. The trough, as a consequence has moved a little west through Tuesday. The upper cold pool has moved northeast only slowly through Tuesday and is still triggering storms in its vicinity. TC Craig continues to slide east along the northern coast of the Top End and TC Erica has turned southward and towards the leading edge of an active upper trough.

Another active and very extensive (to near 15°S) upper trough is approaching our longitudes from the west with a marked mid level baroclinic area southwest of the continent. Much of the atmosphere over the Australian continent , away from the influence of the ITCZ and east Australian trough is drier than for the past few months.

Discussion: During Wednesday, TC Erica looks to move southeast as the upper trough moves through the Coral Sea, with TC Craig also drifting southeast through the Top End, and may become caught up in the southeasterly upper flow ahead of the upper trough currently lying through eastern Australia.

The high in the Bight will weaken and retract eastwards, with a further high to ridge in from the western Bight later Wednesday, while the high in the Tasman will continue to ridge along the east coast, directing a deep east-southeasterly flow across the coast with some continuing moderate to heavy falls. The upper cold pool will weaken as it drifts north through New South Wales. A deep low in the southern Bight will move east with a front passing close to the southern coastline and influencing Tasmania.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A band of high cloud moving across the state but remaining dry with isolated fog patches on and south of the ranges.   Fine Wednesday and becoming warmer.
NSW:  Showers with some heavy falls edging north and clearing from the far south.  Isolated showers and storms in the northern inland associated with the upper cold pool.  Dry elsewhere.
Queensland: Showers and storms continuing over the tropics, with increasing winds and heavy showers in the northwestern Gulf country with the approach of TC Craig. Showers over the central and northeastern areas associated with the cloudband across the state. Chance of a storm in the far southern inland.
NT: Showers, with some heavy falls and isolated storms (and gales) over the northeastern Top End as TC Craig edges towards Queensland.  Fine in the south and becoming mainly fine in the northwest.
WA: Isolated showers about the southern parts of the west coast, clearing after a weak front moves south of the state.
SA: Fine......and becoming warmer throughout.
Tasmania:  A band of showers moving across the state tonight. Clearing through Wednesday before the approach of a front later.

Overview: On Monday night, TC Craig is moving south of Melville Island, TC Erica has reformed in the Coral Sea and ex Harriet has moved in a southwesterly direction towards the complex trough approaching the southern part of Western Australia. In the east, an upper cold pool is performing a bit of a 'gypsy' around New South Wales after wandering through eastern Victoria on Sunday.  Some locally very heavy falls over coastal New South Wales are resulting from the interaction between this and a very moist onshore flow. Victoria continued to have light and scattered stream showers through Gippsland with Melbourne being affected during the day.

The high is moving to the south of Tasmania and the trough through eastern Australia can be seen extending (somewhat weakly) through Victoria to as far south as Tasmania's west coast. A highly meridional upper flow is making a direct west-east progression of the synoptic systems across the continent unlikely and therefore, more difficult. Cloud through central Queensland is responding to a strengthening upper jet.

Discussion: During Tuesday, the high will move towards the Tasman Sea and ridge a little more strongly along the east coast, forcing the surface trough a little further west during the day before being edged northeast later Tuesday. With a deep generally easterly flow onto the New South Wales coast, widespread showers are likely to continue through Tuesday, with some significant falls, and occasional storms in the vicinity of the upper cold pool. TC Craig looks likely to wander about the Top End for the next day or so but doesn't (at this stage) seem particularly well organised and should still be watched. ex Harriet will become absorbed totally into the very large and strong upper trough moving towards our longitudes

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches and isolated fog patches on and south of the ranges, mainly near the Gippsland coast clearing throughout to a fine day.
NSW:  Showers continuing along the coast, heavier in the north, and becoming less frequent in the south. Fine west of the ranges.  Isolated storms in the north.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms over the northern tropics, with some rain areas in the northwest. Isolated showers along the coast.  Isolated showers in the southeast.
NT: Showers and rain periods with isolated storms, heavy in the north. Gale force winds along the coast in the north.
WA: Isolated showers and storms over the Kimberley, mainly in the north.   Chance of storms along the west coast south of Shark Bay as the trough drifts closer.
SA: Fine......
Tasmania:  Showers in the south and west during Monday night,clearing Tuesday morning.

Overview: The high in the Bight at 1031hPa remained slow moving through Sunday, with a ridge along the east coast trapping the trough which ended up lying along the ranges and producing some severe weather through central eastern New South Wales. An upper cold pool, which brought some good falls to Gippsland on Saturday moved northeast and dragged a returning cloudband back around from the Tasman Sea triggering further showers, mostly orographically enhanced, to the central Victorian region.

The ITCZ has shifted steadily to the north over the past few days and is now located across the northern Top End. TC Craig was identified to the northwest of Darwin, TC Harriet continues to move southwest away from the mainland while the trough deepened along the west coast and bisected the baric ridge through the western Bight.

Discussion: The high in the Bight will ridge into the southern Tasman under Tasmania and pressure force the surface trough northeast during Monday, while the upper low will also move northeast. A broad upper trough will continue to lie through western Queensland and the central Northern Territory, and the broad 850hPa flow from the southeast onto the northern half of the continent will help increase moisture levels generally. TC Craig is likely to deepen and move south, while TC Harriet weakens and moves toward the active trough approaching the southwest of the continent.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Stream showers over the southeastern part of the state, southeast of the Ballarat and Bendigo region, more pronounced in Gippsland and over the ranges. Fine in the north and west, isolated drizzle or fog patches in the southwest.
NSW:  Showers along much of the coast during Monday with heavier falls likely in the central and northern parts.   Isolated storms contracting northeast.  Mainly fine west of the ranges and cooler in the south.
Queensland: Isoalted showers over the tropical north.  Isoalted showers and storms associated with the trough running through the western and southern parts of the state. Risk of a storm in the southeast corner.
NT: Showers, with some heavy to very falls likely, particularly in the northwest of the Territory.  Isoalted light showers south of Tennant Creek.
WA: Isolated showers and storms in the Kimberley with some heavy falls. Isolated storms along the west coast.
SA: Fine with only the chance of light drizzle along the coast.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, mainly in the eastern half of the state, clearing later Monday.

Overview: A ridge extending along the New South Wales coast has slowed the eastward escape of the easterly surface trough extending from central Queensland to far eastern Victoria. A cold pool within a complex upper trough over the Bass Strait area has initiated a circulation during Saturday that moved northwest for a time before moving north and bringing showers, with some heavy falls to Gippsland and parts of central Victoria, particularly the ranges. Showers and storms over eastern Victoria and New South Wales to the east of the trough axis have been frequent through much of the afternoon.

TC Harriet continues to move southwest (slowly) parallel to the coast) with a deepening trough off the west coast.  A Cyclone Watch has been issued to parts of the Northern Territory and Kimberley, while exTC Erica continues to lurk in the Coral Sea (and bears watching). The high in the Bight has ridged to the south of Tasmania and remains strong. A complex trough is approaching the western Bight.

Discussion: The trough will likely remain anchored in the far east of Victoria during Sunday while its northern extent will edge east.  The high in the Bight will strengthen the ridge south of Tasmania. The complex upper trough in Bass Strait during Saturday will move around the corner of the continent and then northeast through Sunday, with cooler air at all levels to follow.

TC Harriet will move southwest and the west coast trough will bisect the baric ridge. The trough is likely to become absorbed in the approaching upper trough moving towards our longitudes.

Showers and storms will continue across the north of the continent, particularly in the northwest, with some heavy falls especially associated with convergence lines and a build up of moisture.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers, some heavy, in South Gippsland and parts of central Victoria tonight, and isolated storms.  Storms continuing in the far east of the state associated with the anchored southern extent of the trough. Remaining mainly fine in the north.
NSW:  Scattered showers and storms are likely in the southeast and up to the Central Tablelands associated with the trough. Cooler conditions in the south and southwest.
Queensland: Isolated showers over Cape York with showers and storms near to the southwest Gulf and associated with convergence lines in the northwest of the state.   Scattered showers and storms in the southwest edging east during Sunday.
NT: Scattered showers and storms more frequent and with heavier falls likely in the northwest and along convergence lines.  Watch the low....
WA: Isolated showers and storms over the Kimberley and also in the Pilbara and along the west coast associated with Harriet and the trough to the west.
SA: Fine throughout, with just the chance of morning drizzle in the southeast corner.
Tasmania:  Rain periods in the northeast during Sunday night with some heavy falls.  Scattered showers in the west clearing.

Discussion: The trough through inland Queensland and New South Wales, which extended southward into Victoria on Friday will move east during Saturday and the ridge from the high pressure in the Bight will strengthen and build to the south of Tasmania, as well as extending along the east coast and slowing the eastward movement of the trough. This trough will continue to trigger scattered showers and storms during Saturday as it drifts east, mainly north of the Victorian ranges and over inland New South Wales and central Queensland. A front will cross through Victoria and Tasmania during Friday night and Saturday, bringing a shift to cooler southwesterlies with scattered showers. A complex upper trough will move across southeastern Australia during the weekend and will serve to destabilise conditions.

ExTC Erica has dissolved into a tropical depression northeast of the Queensland tropical coast, while TC Harriet will continue to move in a southwesterly direction, grazing the North West Cape area. The trough off the west coast of Western Australia will deepen and an approaching low from near 35°S in the Indian Ocean, may become absorbed into this area.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Trough will anchor its southern extent in the east of Victoria and with the thermal trough moving into the area, further destabilisation should occur with scattered showers and storms in the east and northeast possible. Showers in western and central districts in Victoria overnight and into Saturday with cooler conditions following the front.
NSW:  Showers and isolated storms in the southeast associated with the trough moving into the state.  Storms are also likely in the north of the state, especially during the afternoon associated with the trough extending west of the ranges. Showers along the north coast will continue in the onshore flow.
Queensland: Isolated showers and storms over the northern tropics, particularly over Cape York.  Isolated showers and storms in the southwest of the state associated with the trough. Showers along the central coast, but only isolated and light.
NT: Showers and storms over the Top End, more frequent and heavier in the north. Risk of a shower in the Tennant Creek area.  Fine elsewhere.
WA: Seasonal showers and storms over the Kimberley. Showers and storms near the Pilbara coast are likely to follow TC Harriet as it moves southwest parallel.
SA: Isolated light showers or drizzle in the south, contracting to the southeast through Saturday.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers in the west Friday night spreading east through Saturday and lingering in the north.  Chance of storms.

Overview: The ITCZ has moved northward during Thursday with TC Erica weakening to a tropical low with little cohesive organisation and TC Harriet in the west continuing to deepen and move toward the Learmonth area. The trough extending southwards from Queensland through central New South Wales and to northeastern Victoria has produced some convective cloud and isolated storms, but conditions through much of the atmosphere have been too dry for any significant development. A weak trough moving along the east coast has also triggered isolated storms. While the ITCZ has edged slightly northward, the baric ridge through the Bight has sagged somewhat south, with the strengthening high in the Tasman Sea ridging along the east coast. An upper trough (with associated thermal trough and surface trough)   is moving through the southern Bight.  Moisture from the northwest tropics is feeding south into the southern Interior and Eucla of Western Australia.

Discussion: TC's Erica and Harriet are likely to continue their yo-yo effect on the ITCZ with Erica weakening out to a tropical low and continuing north and Harriet continuing to strengthen slightly and moving south with the west coast trough deepening southward and eroding the northern edge of the high ridging through the Bight. The complex trough in the southern Bight will deepen through Friday in the upper atmosphere with a front approaching the southeastern corner of the continent later Friday. An 850hPa cold pool west of the thermal trough in the Bight looks likely to move northeast around the upper trough and towards our part of the world during the weekend.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Northeasterly flow across the north of the state in particular will bring an increase in lower level moisture through Friday.  In the north, warm conditions will continue through the next day or so, while south of the ranges, conditions will become milder later Friday with the passage of a trough along the coast.  Isolated showers and storms developing along the ranges and possibly in the northeast with the deepening inland trough interacting with tropical moisture feeding down from the northwest and an increase in lower level moisture from the northeast are possible - and decreasing upper temperatures will only assist....
NSW: Increasing moisture onto the coast and adjacent ranges with isolated showers. The chance of a shower or storm along the Northern Tablelands and in the southeast.
Queensland: Isolated showers and storms over the northern tropics. Isolated showers and storms associated with a weak inland trough in the south.
NT: Scattered showers and storms continuing over the Top End.
WA: Scattered showers and storms along the Pilbara and Kimberley coasts. Isolated showers in the southwest with the risk of a storm in the Eucla. TC Harriet approaching the coast in the Pilbara should see an increase in shower activity with some periods of rain, nearer to the coast.  Isolated showers and storms extending southeast through the Gascoyne and Goldfields.
SA: The front moving through the Bight is likely to slide to the southeast of the state during Thursday night / Friday. Isolated shower activity in the far south will yield only minimal falls, with conditions becoming cooler along the coast behind the pressure surge.
Tasmania:  Increasing showers in the west and south extending east with the passage of a trough during Friday.

Overview: The ITCZ has shifted slightly north through the early part of this week. TCs Erica (985hPa) is moving generally northward, while Harriet (990hPa) continues a southeastward drift. Neither is a particular risk at the moment.  The trough extending from Queensland down the west of the New South Wales ranges and into Victoria has remained inactive through Wednesday. The front and trough extension moving along the east coast of New South Wales has triggered storms in the northeast, mainly near the coast.

The high in the Bight has moved to the east and weakened, with the baric ridge remaining near 35 - 40°S. A series of deep lows passes to the south of the baric ridge. The west coast trough remains broad and slow to develop as heating over the continent decreases.

Discussion: Both TC's are likely to deepen slightly through Thursday, but neither is expected to become much greater in severity. Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue over the northern tropics, becoming more frequent over the Top End.  Scattered showers and storms along the northwest coast as TC Harriet moves closer. Patchy cloud across the continent will continue to trigger some light showers as it drifts to the east, but no significant falls.

As the high moves into the Tasman, a moister northeasterly flow will be directed over the southeast of the continent, and the inland trough through New South Wales and northern Victoria will drift west through Thursday. A front will move through the Bight and pass to the south of Western Australia, and the west coast trough will move eastward slowly.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Patchy morning fog on and south of the ranges.  Becoming warmer and mainly fine throughout with the trough drifting a little west, but remaining largely inactive.  Moisture across the state increasing.
NSW: Isolated showers along much of the coast.  Remaining dry inland.
Queensland:  Isolated showers and storms over the northeast tropics in the main. Chance of a shower or storm in the south, mainly the southeast corner as the trough moves long the coast.
NT: Showers and storms, becoming more frequent over the Top End, particularly in the west. Risk of a light shower over central areas.
WA:  Isolated showers and drizzle in the south, and becoming more frequent in the southwest corner as the trough in the south moves east.  Warm to hot ahead of the trough.  Isolated showers and storms over the Kimberley region, and extending through the coastal Pilbara.
SA: Chance of a shower in the far north and northwest, but only light falls. Becoming warmer.
Tasmania:  Isolated showers in the southwest, clearing.

Overview: TC Erica (985hPa) to the east of the Queensland coast and TC Harriet (990hPa) on the west of the continent both continue to move in a generally easterly direction.The baric ridge through the Bight and the Tasman Sea has moved a little north, with the high in the Tasman Sea extending a ridge along the east coast to the west of Erica. A trough lies down the western side of the ranges in New South Wales and a front that moved through Tasmania and Victoria overnight is currently moving along the south coast of New South Wales.

The west coast trough is weak and lies just to the west of the Western Australian coast. A broad area of moisture lies through the Northern Territory and is bringing showers across much of the area. The remnants of exTC Graham are nowhere to be see.

Discussion: Both TC's will deepen further throughout Wednesday and continue their eastward drift, TC Erica is better organised at this stage and likely to deepen more through the day. The high in the Bight will remain slow moving and direct a southeast to northeast flow across the southeast of the country.  The front will move along the New South Wales coast and may trigger showers and storms near to the coast, with storms more of a chance in the north of the state, while the cloudband extending from the front to the tropical moisture over the Territory may trigger some showers.

The trough through New South Wales and extending to the northeast of Victoria will continue lurking but remain largely inactive through Wednesday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers and drizzle patches in the south clearing during the morning.  Mainly fine during Wednesday, with some isolated cloud possibly developing on the northeastern ranges but remaining dry.
NSW: Showers along the coast associated with the front moving north and a moist onshore flow.  Light showers may result from the cloudband passing across the northern inland.  Cooler conditions behind the front.
Queensland:  Isolated showers and storms continuing in the north of the state.   Isolated light showers are possible from the cloudband tipping through southwest.   Risk of heavier falls along the central coast.
NT: Isolated showers and storms continuing over the Top End and becoming less frequent south of the area.
WA:  Showers and storms over the Kimberley and developing associated with TC Harriet later through the day.  Light showers in the Interior contracting east out of the state.
SA: Isolated showers over the north, clearing through Wednesday.  Drizzle along the coast clearing and becoming fine and remaining mild.
Tasmania:  Early showers in the west and south, mostly clearing. Cool conditions continuing.

Overview: The high in the Bight is ridging east through Bass Strait and northward along the New South Wales coast. A number of low pressure cells lie along the ITCZ which maintains its position near 20°S across our longitudes.  These lows are migrating in a generally easterly direction, and  a small low approaching the west coast should be monitored during the next day or so for further development. A weak trough has developed through into New South Wales.

The southeasterly flow being directed across the southeast of the continent has continued to bring low cloud to Victoria south of the ranges as well as Tasmania. Cloud from ex-TC Graham is drifting southwest over South Australia and then northeast with the upper jet. Light rain continues to be associated with this area of cloud. A deep low is passing south of Tasmania.

Discussion: During Tuesday, the high in the Bight will bud off a new cell in the Tasman Sea and to its southwest a front will move up from the southwest to cross Tasmania and bring a temporary drop in pressure and increase or showers over southern Victoria. A trough is deepening southward through New South Wales and amy affect the northeastern parts of Victoria.

A series of deep lows is travelling through the Southern Ocean at slightly lower latitudes than previously, but will not affect our latitudes courtesy of the high in the Bight which will remain slow moving and aligned generally west - east Tuesday is likely to see the most zonal upper flow experienced for quite a while. Showers are also likely to be mainly over the tropical northeast of Queensland near to the most easterly of the lows in our region.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers on and south of the ranges, isolated before becoming more frequent with the passage of the front to our south during Tuesday. Mainly fine north of the ranges with the exception of the northeast where there is a risk of a shower or storm as the trough deepens.
NSW: Isolated showers in the northeast in a moist onshore flow courtesy of the high in the Tasman Sea. The front moving along the coast later in the day is likely to trigger showers in the southeast and an eye should be kept on the deepening trough along the west of the ranges.
Queensland:  Scattered showers and storms in the northeast of the state with some isolated heavier falls along the coast, mainly to the south of the low near the coast. Mainly fine elsewhere with some cloud developing in the south.
NT: Isolated showers and storms mainly over the Top End with the chance of a shower in the southwest border regions.
WA:  Mainly fine in the south except in the far southeast where showers from the exTC Graham will contract southeast to the Eucla. Isolated showers and storm over the Kimberly with the chance of showers and storms developing in the western Pilbara.   Watch that low approaching the northwest coast!
SA: Isolated showers in the south near the coast and also in the far west associated with exTC Graham.  Mainly fine elsewhere.  Cloud but little rain moving through the state.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers in the west and south and then also further east during Tuesday.  Remaining generally cool.

Overview: The ITCZ remains across the north of the continent with a series of lows extending from the Indian Ocean through to coastal Queensland. The slow moving high in the Bight is ridging south of the low in Queensland and maintaining a south - southwesterly flow over Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales, although there has been a significant warming through most of the atmosphere since yesterday morning. A deep low and the associated thermal trough (that passed across us yesterday) is approaching the far south of the South Island of New Zealand.

Cloud from ex-TC Graham is being dragged southeast and then northeast by the upper flow and ahead of an upper trough developing over the western Bight. The surface trough along the west coast remains weak.

Discussion: The low near to the Queensland coast looks to deepen somewhat during Monday and may bring strengthening winds and some heavy falls to the area. Should be watched! Away from this area, shower and storm activity is likely to diminish across much of the northern part of the continent.

The rain area associated with exTC Graham is likely to remain slow moving over the Interior of Western Australia and the far west and northwest of South Australia while the cloud for this system will be dragged away to the northeast by the upper flow and into the complex trough moving across New Zealand. A front is approaching the southeast corner during Tuesday and will have little effect other than a shortlived increase in shower activity on and south of the ranges in Victoria and over much of Tasmania. Cold nights are likely especially away form the coast in the southeast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers or drizzle on and south of the ranges clearing early Monday to mainly fine throughout. A cool night away from the coast.
NSW: Isolated showers along the coast, mainly in the north.  Cool to mild throughout the state.  Possible frosts along the ranges, mainly in the south.
Queensland:  Showers and storms over the northeast tropics, with further showers over the remainder of tropical Queensland.  Mainly fine elsewhere with some high cloud across the south of the state emanating from exTC-Graham.
NT: Scattered showers and isolated storms over the Top End.  Mainly fine elsewhere.
WA:  Showers and storms in the Kimberley, becoming less frequent through Monday.  Showers with some areas of patchy rain over the Interior and eastern Pilbara, also becoming less frequent and drifting slowly east.  Isolated patchy drizzle along the south coast, clearing early.
SA: Isolated showers over the coastal regions, with areas of cloud in the west of the state with light showers.
Tasmania:  Remaining cool to cold.  Scattered showers in the west and south, clearing through Monday.

Overview: A deep southwesterly flow dominates the southeast of the continent ahead of a high pressure system in the Bight which is ridging into eastern Australia.  A wave low / cold pool to the south of Tasmania will strengthen this colder southwesterly flow across Tasmania during Sunday.

TC Graham has weakened into a rain depression and is now located east of Port Hedland.  A further low near Cocos Islands should be watched. The ITCZ continues to lie across the north of the continent with a new low forming over Queensland west of Townsville. A complex low in the Tasman Sea is moving towards New Zealand and should bring wintery conditions, especially to the South Island.

Discussion: Little change in the synoptic setup is expected through the rest of Sunday. Cooler but mainly fine conditions will become established over the southern parts of Australia as the colder air moves away to the east. A weak trough over the west coast is beginning to reform but will remain weak and quasi-stationary during Sunday. Rain areas triggered by ex-TC Graham will move east into the Interior of Western Australia and may result in a few showers in the far west of South Australia later.  Showers will also continue over the northeastern tropics of Queensland.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Mainly fine in the north with scattered showers on and south of the ranges and remaining unseasonably cool during Sunday.
NSW: Cooler conditions throughout with a broad southwesterly flow.  A few showers over the southeast, but becoming isolated through the day.
Queensland:  Scattered showers and isolated falls over the tropics, predominantly in the northeast with some heavy falls along the coast.
NT: Scattered showers and isolated storms over the Top End with isolated showers in the south, mainly in the west of the Territory.
WA:  Scattered showers and isolated storms in the Kimberley and northern parts of the Interior, with showers and occasional rain periods extending to the eastern parts of the Interior and into the Eucla.
SA: Isolated showers or drizzle patches over the south clearing through Sunday.  Increasing cloud in the far west and northwest with the chance of a shower.
Tasmania:  Remaining cold with scattered showers, mainly in the west, south and central highlands.  Occasional hail as well as snow over higher parts likely to continue through mid Sunday, becoming less frequent later.

Overview: The ITCZ over the Australian longitudes is beginning to change alignment with TC Graham crossing the northwest coast of the continent (slowly) in a southeasterly direction, and the monsoon low over the eastern part of northern Australia being caught up with the midlatitude trough moving through and beginning to move southeast.

A wave low to the south of Tasmania extends a front to the north into New South Wales with showers, some heavy and storms moving with the trough and the front.  A large funnel was reported over the southeastern suburbs of Melbourne during the early evening. To the west of the front, a significant pool of cold air is approaching the southeast corner associated with a thermal trough at 500hpa (18,500'). The high moving into the western Bight is ridging broadly to the east and is slow moving.

Discussion: The thermal trough is expected to move through central Victoria during the early morning with the potential destabilisation of conditions over and near relatively warm waters. A deep southwesterly flow will follow.  Scattered showers with the chance of hail (mainly south of the ranges) as well light snow over the higher peaks of the alpine areas later Saturday is not unexpected.  Hail & snow showers over the Tasmanian highlands is likely earlier and to lower levels that over the mainland.

The monsoon low over Queensland will continue to slide southward along the mid-latitude trough axis with further showers and storms associated with the trough.  Some heavy falls are particularly likely in the vicinity of this low and it looks likely to lose its tropical identity during Saturday. TC Graham will remain slow moving and the ITCZ will tend to hold its position over the west of the continent, while the high in the western Bight strengthens its ridge to the south of Graham and remains slow moving.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers with the chance of hail and thunder south of the ranges.  Isolated light snow over the higher peaks during Saturday.  Conditions moderating later in the weekend.
NSW: Showers and isolated storms in the northeast of the state associated with the trough and front.  Becoming cooler behind the front with showers continuing in the southeast, with the chance of hail, and with snow likely over the higher peaks.
Queensland:  Scattered showers and storms over the northern tropics, with coastal showers extending southward as the low moves to the southeast. Scattered showers and isolated storms in the south of the state, spreading east during Saturday.
NT: Scattered showers and storms, more frequent in the northwest with some heavy falls over this area.
WA:  Showers along the south coast.  Showers, rain periods and storms with some very heavy falls courtesy of TC Graham over the Pilbara, Kimberley and Interior, spreading southeast. 
SA: Scattered showers in the south.  Isolated showers with the chance of a storm in the northwest.
Tasmania:  Showers with isolated storms, with the likelihood of  hail.   Snow showers over higher parts during Saturday.  Cold.

February 2003 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page