Victoria - March 2001 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

March 2001 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page Victoria
Date	Name	Information
		Current Victorian Weather
27	Clyve Herbert	AUSTRALIA - AN OVERVIEW The first stages in the arrival of the Top End dry season are now underway, the large and slow moving high over the Australian Bight is the strongest high pressure system to affect the Australian region for some time. This system has pushed a surge of drier east to south-easterly winds into much of northern Australia and pushed the ITCZ offshore. The arrival of the early stages of the southeast trades will spread drier air into the northern tropics over the next three to five days, with a brief return to more humid air over the tropics after this weekend. The remainder of Australia will be strongly influenced by the high pressure system until the weekend as it migrates slowly towards the Tasman Sea by Saturday. Following this high pressure phase across southern Australia, a trough and associated cold frontal complex will follow affecting southwest WA from Thursday, and spread eastward to affect the southeast of Australia and Tasmania later this weekend. The passage of this high pressure area will be accompanied by several cold nights over inland parts of southern Australia with early season frosts a risk. The east coast of Australia should see a prolonged spell of showers especially north of Sydney. The remainder of Australia should remain mostly on the dry side. VICTORIA.....Cool to very cool conditions with light showers and drizzle over southern and mountain regions until at least early Wednesday, dry and mostly sunny conditions in northern Victoria throughout the forecast period until the arrival of a trough and cold front later Saturday or Sunday with patchy rain. Some cold nights over inland parts of Victoria with the risk of frost especially Thursday and Friday mornings. More general sunny and warm conditions throughout Victoria later Friday and Saturday. GEELONG AREA.... Tuesday 27/3 Cool. Partly cloudy with brief sunny intervals and very occasional light showers. Wednesday 28/3 Partly cloudy with a brief shower or early drizzle - cool to mild sunny periods later. Thursday 29/3 Some early cloud or drizzle/fog then becoming fine and mild. Friday 30/3 Early fog or low cloud then mainly fine and mild, Saturday 31/3 Mainly fine and sunny after a cold morning with fog patches - a warm afternoon. Sunday 1/4 Increasing high cloud and fresh north winds. Warm but some patchy rain possible later. Regards Clyve Herbert and Lindsay Smail and the Geelong Weather Services.(NMP)
25	Clyve Herbert	A small but interesting comma shape just south of Kangaroo Isle this morning looks to be at the top of a trough extending from a low west of Tasmania, this area may become a little more interesting if it passes across the southwest of Vic ,possibly a small cold pool at 500hpa, could be an area for possible thunderstorm activity later on
2/4	Blair Trewin	I'd had a look at the April 1977 event as well. The synoptic situation was comparable - Melbourne was on the western side of a broad area of low pressure (couldn't find charts with sufficiently high resolution to see whether the finer-scale pattern was similar).
25	Phil Paisley (SA: re 22nd March)	All this talk about occlusions leads one to wonder if: a] they are real in an Australian context b] if they are why they are not shown on the MSL analysis with the typical northern hemisphere occluded symbols?
24	Les Crossan (UK: re 22nd March)	This is a (northern hemisphere) website that'll give you more isenotropes than you can shake a stick at: all the major frontal events are described here (: http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/satmanu3.0/manual/satmanu/manual/cmmenu.htm
24	Clyve Herbert (report - 22nd March)	This is not the first time I have seen this type of rain generating system across central Victoria, I believe in 1977 a similar situation produced 177mm in the Laverton area (92mm this time). A feature of this type of rain event is a rather narrow and vigorous rain band moving from a southwest, south, or southeast direction, it's interesting to note that often the warmer air is on the west side (at the surface at least). I personally call this situation a "wrap around", some work has been done on this type of phenomena in the British Isles. I think they call the synoptic situation a "bent back occlusion" and this type of situation has produced narrow bands of heavy rain there (and localised heavy snow also). From my obs the situation is rather complex, the wrap around can be traced to an infeed band usually moving from the north or northeast to the east of the low and then converging into the low, but sometimes the band wraps around the apparent low centre with multiple spirals often in the mature stage (an occluded low). This region has a very interesting set-up with colder air on the east side and warmer air to the west also there appears to be a narrow warm conveyer belt in the middle layers and generally all very moist, the region appears to develop into a strong convergence zone with most of the precipitation developing in the lower and mid levels with what appears to be copious amounts of "warm rain", the type of rain is often of the small to medium size (this may account for the lack of electrical activity) but I also encountered short spells of very heavy and large drops from what are possibly deeper and perhaps glaciated larger embedded cumuliform developments. The structure of this Melbourne rain band showed 20 to 30 knot south to south-westerly winds on the west side of the rain band and only light north to northeasterly on the east side, it was markedly warmer on the west side at the surface. Also there is possibly good upper support along the convergence line with relatively strong upper winds of a southerly component.
24	Lindsay Smail (report - 22nd March)	A similar result occurred last October when prolonged rainfall totalling over 100 mm between 23rd and 25th was produced by a similar wrap-around effect, but without a noticeable temperature rise or SW feed. Last Wednesday evening there was a clear rotation showing on radar, centred over Pt Phillip Bay. During Thursday, not only did Tullamarine receive 99 mm, but St Leonards on the Bellarine Peninsula had 80 - the day after Geelong's downpour.
24	Laurier Williams (NSW) (report - 22nd March)	I've written up Melbourne's Thursday event. Checking through all available satpix, Skew-Ts, anals, etc., it seemed difficult to come up with a mechanism to cause it. I write in the report: No thunder was reported, cold upper air and its attendant surface low had moved away to the east overnight, the Melbourne Airport balloon ascent at 9am showed a conditionally stable (if very moist) atmosphere with an inversion at about 3,000 metres, CAPE, a measure of available energy, was a low 32, low level vorticity was modest and upper level divergence was negative. Most of the atmospheric accompaniments one would expect with such an event were missing. So why did it happen? I found Clyve's note about the sudden temperature rise at Leopold fascinating, and started looking closely at the half hourly surface obs for Geelong, Laverton and Melbourne AP. My conclusion is that it was a convergence line with a strong, moist SW feed and probably some vorticity imparted by a brief westward extension to the circulation then off the East Gippsland coast. Looking at the satpic animations, it's hard to see a closed circulation east of Melbourne, but there was certainly something going on there.
23		Images of approaching system
23	Clyve Herbert	Good strength baroclinic zone generating a significant band of mid level cloud heading southeast from SA to NSW and VIC, will wrap around the vigorous new low developing southwest of Adelaide. A very nice cold air pool showing up in the central Australian Bight, all this could come together tonight and we may see another major rain situation for south-eastern Australia. Judging by the movement of the mid level cloud band it looks favoured to affect the north-eastern highlands of Victoria and adjacent Snowy Mountains area, but convergence near to the trough and cold front should bring some more good falls to other areas of Victoria also. Some potential for reasonable snow falls over the Australian Alps later in the weekend.
22	Bureau of Meteorology summary	A low pressure system was situated over Eastern Bass Strait during the day. Northerly winds over the Central District in the morning turned southwesterly early afternoon. Winds in the north of the state were light to moderate but were stronger in the south. Southerly winds gusted to 41 knots [ 77 kph], at Aireys Inlet and northerly winds gusted to 37 knots [ 70 kph] at Wilsons Promontory. Substantial rain occurred across the state during the 24 hours to 9am with useful amounts received in all districts. Amounts graded from around 10mm in the north and northwest to about 20mm in the west, to upwards of 30mm in many parts of the Central Districts. Heavier falls were 62mm at Geelong, 46mm at Trentham, 45mm at Blackwood and Avalon, and 42mm at Ballan. After 9 am a rainband became established on a north/south line through Melbourne with an emphasis on the northern and western suburbs. Very heavy falls were experienced and in the case of Melbourne Airport the total to 3 pm of 98.8mm was higher than the previous highest 24 hour total for March since records commenced there in 1970. At Laverton 91.2mm fell in the same period and this also exceeded the previous 24 hour highest for March. In the Melbourne CBD the 6 hour figure of 41.8mm to 3pm was higher than any 24 hour fall in March since 1970. There was 6.4mm of rain in the city gauge at 9 am and a further 41.8mm fell in the 6 hours to 3 pm.
22	Robert Goler	Melbourne Broad Radar Loop from 21st March - takes a while but brilliant!!
22	Clyve Herbert	Almost 5 months since any decent rain here at Leopold, last night got 47.1mm and since Friday 80.1mm!, also a remarkable warming this morning at about 0905hrs - the temp went from 11.4c to 17.1c in about 2 minutes, the culprit appears to be a new low pressure centre developing near to the east central district and warm air being drawn from the Tasman Sea across Bass Strait and wrapping around the low to cross the coast of central Victoria. While Victoria is still enjoying the current weather system the next one is queuing up in the Australian Bight,with a strengthening cold front and a nice looking cold air field following, also lurking is an active tropical disturbance off north western Australia feeding moisture to the southeast along the sub tropical jet, looks like yet another area of cyclogenesis developing southwest of Adelaide over the next 24 hours and moving into the southeast of Australia for the weekend. Although very marginal the area off the north west of WA does have some potential and worth a check for the next 24 hours also.
22	David Jones	The snow cams at ski.com.au show what appears to be a few small patches of snow at the top of Thredbo/Basin. Certainly, all major resorts appear to have experience some sleet/snow overnight, but with "warm" ground and only marginal temperatures the only evidence on the cams is at Thredbo. BTW for those with access to radar, Melbourne ATM has a quite remarkable meridionally aligned rain band which appears to be associated with a well developed vortex deformation cloud. These cloud features tend to be quite transient, but if present rainfall rates continue, much of central Victoria will be looking at 20mm+ falls.
22	Lindsay Smail	An incredible 60 mm in Geelong's southern suburbs came from that wrap-around flank of the low last night. Almost stopped now (8.30) but showers to come.
22		Weather in Melbourne 21st March
21		Images of the Victorian low
20	David Jones	The long promised second low (seen in the progs late last week), is developing nicely to the southwest of Kangaroo Island ATM. Models and extrapolation place this near Mt Gambier tonight, before "it" crosses Victoria through Wednesday. It then appears that secondary cyclogenesis will then take place in the complex through Thursday in Bass Strait before, the low complex moves quickly away on Friday ahead of an amplifying upper trough (presaging the development of yet another low?). The exact weather will really depend on the placement of the low and its attendant cold pool. A track through Bass Strait as favoured by LAPS, UK US and GASP models will likely see the heaviest rainfalls initially on the northern slopes in the frontal cloud band/baroclinic leaf, with heavier rain in the south associated with the vigorous convergent southerlies and likely vorticity comma and deformation cloud band after the low passes through. One thing to watch is the coldness of air. The cold pool near Mt Gambier is progged to have central thickness values less than 540 gpdm (snow to around 1100m level), which is then expected to move over central Victoria. By Thursday, the cold pool should lie near/east of Melbourne with a central value between 540 and 547gpdm. At the lower extreme one would expect significant snowfalls on the ranges east of Melbourne (Lake Mt, Baw Baw) etc. while the higher values will see just rain.
20	Nick Sykes	Things are starting to come together over SE Australia with the weather expected to turn very interesting. A lovely pool of cold air behind a strengthening front in the eastern Bight is starting to interact with the warm sea surface temperatures over the waters south of Australia and cyclogenisis (formation of a low) should be the result. This low is forecasted to track very close to Victoria, bringing with it some wild weather. The strong front will move through Victoria from this evening, with possible thunderstorms along it and severe squalls not out of the question. Once the initial change moves through a rain band will follow, bringing potentially good falls to parts of Victoria, on areas exposed to the prevailing winds will see the best falls. As the low forms the whole system will slow, bringing a continuation of cold, wet and windy weather, the worst of it been in Southern Victoria.
19	Clyve Herbert	A nice dogs' breakfast of a sat pic for the Australian region this afternoon!, but it looks like this will all "come together" over the next 24 hours or so. First...the nice area of MOISTURE over WA is moving southeast and should start to interact with the mid latitude trough and approaching COLD AIR FIELD. Second.....the Tasman sea low has lost its direction and looks to be showing a possibility of RETROGRADING!! (being pressure forced by the building high near New Zealand), the ridge to the west of Victoria should breakdown today, and there's a lot of MOISTURE over southeast Aus. All this equals? looks like a possible RAIN situation for the southeast of Australia over the next 3 days.
18	Nick Sykes	Could this be the Autumn break?? The Tuesday/Wednesday period looks to be the start of the next major weather system to effect the SE of Australia. Most of the models are going for a low pressure system to form to the west of Tasmania around Tuesday. Looking at the latest satellite image you can see an impressive pool of cold air behind a front in the Southern Ocean. Image of cold pool courtesy of GMS satellite imagery This cold air is progged to move NE into the warmer waters to the south of Australia. Once the cold air moves into this region cyclogenesis should occur (formation of a low pressure system). The area south of Australia looks primed for this to occur, with above average sea surface temperatures and cold air. In this instance the area favoured for the low to form is to the W of Tasmania. The exact timing and positioning of the low is uncertain but it does look like one will form. All the models agree with the exception of NGP which just has a front moving through. I would tend to disagree with this given the favourable conditions for low formation. The weather associated with this low pressure system is a bit uncertain at this stage. Given that the low is forecasted to be slow moving once it forms, heavy falls of rain are possible. But note, this is very dependant on where the low falls as the wind flows over SE Australia in these situations can greatly effect rainfall patterns. Where and how much rain will become more clear as the event nears. Cold air thunderstorms are also a possibility with this system, although these are most likely to occur on the western flank of the low, with the best area looking like been SE and Central SA.
18	Andrew McDonald	Cape Liptrap: Tony Middleton recorded sustained winds of 105km/h and a maximum gust of 115km/h!!!!
18	Laurier Williams (NSW)	Wilsons Prom recorded a top gust on Saturday of 132km/h at noon, with a mean speed at that time of 91. Kingfish B oil rig offshore from Sale had 109km/h at 15.40, which is over open water with no venturi effects from the local topography to increase the speed.
18	Lindsay Smail	It's been a long time since I've had anything worthwhile to report, but a top windspeed of 130 kph was recorded at Lovely Banks (10 km NE of Geelong CBD)at 11.30 pm on Friday, 16th, together with gusts up to 118 kph at Point Lonsdale just earlier. The storms associated with the cold front brought between 12 and 26 mm rain across the Geelong region, and quite a bit of structural damage was caused at the exposed Clifton Springs on the S shore of Corio Bay.
18		Added JCU movies (Australia & SE Australia) tracking the passage of the low from its formation till now at Low Pressure System
18	Clyve Herbert	The nice looking low just south of Gabo Is has a curious signature and similarity to the system that devastated the Sydney Hobart yacht race a couple of years ago, a careful scrutiny also shows a very small clear central area almost like a weak eye
17	Blair Trewin	It looks like most of the precipitation has actually ended up being on the eastern flank of the low, not quite what I'd expected - the heaviest falls have been in north-central and north-western Tasmania, a classic 'humid northerly' signal (90mm at Erriba, and plenty of other places that cracked the half-century; 37 at Launceston). This rain will be very welcome - I was in eastern Tasmania a couple of weeks ago and quite substantial rivers were completely dry - although the east and south-east seems to have got totals in the teens, better than nothing but not an enormous amount of use without follow-up. The only Victorian falls near 50 seem to have been in the Otways, far south Gippsland and the north-east highlands, although east Gippsland may get another round today. 12mm in central Melbourne. Most of the eastern suburbs did better than that, with a band of 30+ stretching from Moorabbin to Mt. Dandenong. There was a bit of local flash flooding on the roads around Eltham but I suspect that had more to do with leaves in drains than heaviness of precipitation. On another tack, it looks like the run of 20+ days will end at 78; 16.7 with heavy cloud at the moment (12.20), strong south-westerlies, and it's hard to see it creeping up another 3.3 in the next 3-4 hours.
16		Images of the passage of the front through Central Victoria - 16th March 2001
16	Clyve Herbert	Some vorticity developing near Mt Gambier at the moment underneath a cold pool, some nice banding of cloud lines also, looks to be moving east south east, my pressure here at Leopold reached 999hpa at 2130hrs just ahead of the cold front, this system is interesting with multiple cloud bands associated with pre frontal troughs,all at different levels!
16	Clyve Herbert	A look at the cloud band over Victoria at 1430hrs shows some potential cyclogenisis,at the moment the large cloud band moving through northern Victoria has started to "pivot" around a possible vorticity centre south of Kangaroo island, also secondary bands are showing curving features near Mt Gambier looks like something should show up near to the southwest of Victoria over the next six hours or so,also there is a developing region of positive convection near to the northeast of the Northern Territory this region is starting to show developing upper divergence,interesting to see both these regions of "potential" are indirectly connected
16	Blair Trewin	The latest LAPS run is developing a small low over Tasmania overnight, falling more or less into line with the higher-resolution MESOLAPS run from last night (although they differ on the location of the low). It now seems likely that a low of some kind will form, and that heavy rain will be associated with it somewhere, but the exact location of the low will determine where that somewhere is. At the moment the highest potential for heavy rain seems to be in north-eastern Tasmania and South Gippsland, but the possibility exists for either Melbourne or Hobart (although probably not both) to get substantial rain on the southern and western flanks of the low. This is separate from the rainband currently in the eastern half of SA ahead of, and with, the front (which appears to have reached Adelaide within the last hour). Much of Victoria should do well out of this, but Melbourne may miss out on most of the action because of the rainshadow effects of the ranges to the north and west.
16	Clyve Herbert	In respect to the approaching cool season, I am interested in the relative warmth of the Southern Ocean adjacent to the Australian mainland (also Bass Strait) with "normal" progression of the baric ridge towards the interior of the Aust mainland and the "arrival" of the mid lat westerly fronts and troughs, the interaction of over running cold air may see a series of cyclogenisis events near to the south and southeast of Australia giving rise to a period of above average rainfall,it will also be interesting to follow the favoured longitude positioning of the long wave troughs.
16	David Jones	..... with much of Victoria having gone 4+ weeks without 1mm of rain (Melbourne at last count 29 days), the most recent sat pics and batch of progs hold out the promise for breaking this dry spell. Already, a number of 10mm+ falls have come in from SA, and while the very low dewpoints embedded over Victoria will probably slow the onset of rain, falls in the general range of 5 to 15mm seem likely. An interesting recent development in the model scenarios, is the placement of a rather deep cold pool near Mt Gambier for tonight with a very strong barocline (T gradient) associated with the front, followed by weak cyclogenesis (of sorts in Bass Strait). If this eventuates, there is the potential for a significant rain event in southern Victoria. Longer range, the model suggest the potential development of a major low near South Australia middle of next week as a significant cold trough/pool moves north from SW of WA, and tropical moisture drifts down from NW WA. Certainly looks like a healthy scenario for thunderstorms and rain, and rather tropical conditions full stop for the eastern states. Interestingly, the major blocking highs which have inhabited the Tasman Sea region for the past 4 months (or is that 4 years?), are now taking up residence near or even SE of New Zealand. From experience, this placement tends to be quite favourable for cut-off and interesting weather generally in the SE of Aus as cold pools/troughs tend to cut-off near "us".
12	Clyve Herbert	Nice surface cold air field moving onto the Tasmanian and Victorian coasts this morning, might see some snow on the Tasmanian high country down to 700m this afternoon and over the Victorian alps getting down to 1000m later today, also the cold air warm sea interaction may provide some lively cold CB developments over Bass Strait this afternoon, also it's interesting to see how far the stratocu has got into Western SA and almost as far north as eastern central WA - may reflect the moist surface air remaining after heavy rain in those areas last week.
12	Nick Sykes	For the first time in months it looks like temperatures in Victoria will be substantially below average today. Melbourne will experience it's first day below 20 for over 70 days, which will break the record run of 20C+ days. A strong front moving in from the SW will produce widespread showers in Southern and Mountain areas with Local Hail and Thunder possible. Cold, strong and squally SW winds will spread from the west, the wind chill factor making today feel bitterly cold. Time to pull out the long pants. Further to the East a trough of low pressure is continuing to produce storm activity. Later today as the front enters East Gippsland and the NE Districts severe storms are a possibility as the 2 systems interact.
11	Clyve Herbert	Not a bad looking cold wave moving through the southern Bight this morning, looks to be moving northeast at present, the high southwest of Perth looks like it will strengthen and push a temporary ridge southwards towards the far Southern Ocean.With a bit of luck some of this cold air may get far north enough to interact with the above average sea surface temps off the Tasmanian and Victorian coasts (21c Bass Strait), this may see the possible development of a low somewhere over the eastern Bass Strait region or east of Tasmania.
10		ASWA meeting - Pancake Parlour, Doncaster Road, Doncaster - 8.30am
		Selected imagery of Abigail & The Duck will appear on this page with links to the full size images, MSL's, loops etc.
8	Anthony Cornelius (QLD)	Re: Tasman Low This low has been rather interesting. It originally started as part of an upper level low and trough and 300 and 500mb respectively. This allowed the low to develop and it has done well so far. However over the past 48-72hrs it appears to have been changing. Previously, when the low was approaching the SE'lies were cold and dry (well, they felt that way), a couple of days ago the SE'lies turned more S'ly - but the DP's increased and so did the temperatures (a little). I know we had showers, but the winds distinctly felt less "southern" and more "tropical." The other thing that has been interesting is the way it has been structured on sat pics - yesterday it looked like it had an "eye" at times! Also interesting is the warming at 300-500mb, in fact the warming has been so significant that the 300mb low has broken down! And a 300mb ridge has taken its place. The 500mb circulation has also somewhat broken down, there is a weak ridge over the centre, but it looks like there is still a weak cyclonic circulation at 500mb? (As opposed to anti-cyclonic). The GMS-5 analysis shows an area of divergence over the region, with a 200-300mb anti-cyclonic curve. The overall shear shows an upper level ridge "dint" in the general pattern. As I speak now, people in IRC are commenting how there is an eye on radar - it can clearly be seen on Brisbane broad! It seems close to a TC - although by definition not quite there yet due to a few left-over cold cored characteristics. Any comments on this? How many cold cored lows around Australia progress into the tropical (or hybrid) stage?
7	Clyve Herbert	Not much happening around tropical Aus at the moment, although there are two areas of some minor interest - there is a small but weakly organized thunderstorm/Cb complex near to the Tagula Is southeast of Papua,this small development does show some outflow to the south east, at this stage development appears very limited but worth a check over the next 4 to 6 hours. Also weak to moderate convection continues to the east of the Solomons but lacks positive outflow potential, but it's interesting to see this area has remained convectivly active for a number of weeks.
4 - Vic	Jane ONeill	Found a (ie: one) very nice Cb on the NE ranges at about 1800 today - looked like it was located along the GDR between Mt Buller & Mt Hotham. Convection had finally got going in this area at around 1630, and there was a line of Cjs & 1 Cb (very pulsy but with weak fibrous anvil) in the area. 1 shower (bases looked to be mid rather than low level). Didn't pick up any lightning on the mobile lightning detector. Cb looked brilliant reflecting the setting sun! Temp in the area was 32.5C at 1800 with early afternoon DPs running at 13 - 14C.
4 - Vic	Clyve Herbert	There is a trough running north south through Victoria, seems to be from just east of Bendigo to the east central region, there is a marked surge of air from the south east and south northward across the west central district, judging by the dewpoints this south-easterly flow across the central district is sourcing from the Tasman Sea, my temp at the moment is 21c, DP about 16, there is a weak cold front just west of Tasmania. I think the remains of this weakening system will push into Bass Strait today followed by cooler drier air, the trough will then be pressure forced eastward towards eastern Vic. The most favoured area for storms today I think will be along the eastern ranges as far west as Mt Buller and a possibility (very slight) of a convective shower on the north central divide, expect drizzle at times on the coast the Otways and even into the Melbourne CBD. Any activity today (storm) may occur in hard to get at locations, although surface heating over the northeast may be sufficient for the odd storm on the plains area east of Shepparton.
4 - Vic	Nick Sykes	There has been a marked increase in the DP's in Victoria overnight with many locations now in the mid-teens. A low pressure trough has moved further westward and can be identified on the sat pic from Central NSW to NE Vic.
4	Clyve Herbert (2350)	Former TC Abigail is showing the early stages of transformation to an extra tropical cyclone, with the southern portion now being the primary outflow dominant area, interestingly the centre has started to drift towards the south-southeast over the past 6 hours, although not expected I would keep a watch on the low moving further towards the southeast, this may bring some of the mid and high outflow cloud band further south towards SA and southeastern Australia, also this outflow band aligned along the sub tropical jet is wrapping around the interesting Tasman sea low. Another interesting area is to the north of Mildura where a line of storms and showers developed this afternoon reflecting a surface and weak upper level trough.
4	Clyve Herbert (1111)	The present vorticity in the central Tasman seems to be moving westward. On the same Latitude east of New Zealand TC Paula is in the process of becoming extra tropical - this system also shows a weak retrograde motion towards NZ. Watch for the outflow from EX TC Abigail wrap around the developing low in the Tasman. Also last night the centre of "ex" TC Abigail showed what appeared to be a small enclosed eye!!!! which lasted for a few hours, Check your past sat data in infra red, if this is the case one must question the process that can develop a TC if there is a case that this type of tropical storm can achieve TC status over land? when all factors are considered if there is enough moisture low level convergence and upper divergence and this can overcome the frictional and complexities of being over the land, is it possible!!!!
3	Anthony Cornelius (QLD) (2348)	Possibly also to do with a high being present over the area, helping to split/divert the jetstream further north over that section, enhancing a 300mb upper trough that will most probably descend down through the layers in the next 24hrs. Might even see a surface low develop early next week from it - is it just me, or does that look surprisingly familiar to what happened a couple of weeks ago? We had an upper level trough amplifying in the Tasman with the help of a nice Quidge. The Quidge got killed by a surface and upper low that developed and moved westward. Approximately 6-12hrs before the main development of the cutoff low itself, we saw a huge arc on the jet reaching will into the tropics of QLD. This was enhanced on sat pics due to ex-TC Wylva being in WA. Here were are 2 weeks later...ex-TC Abigail in WA, and a similar situation developing. Although I don't think the Quidge will be quite as strong. But I'll fall over backwards if another big arc in the jet occurs...
3	Jane ONeill	Re: mid - upper level feature in the Tasman Sea. Looks like this is a mid to upper level feature possibly responding to an increase in the jet which heads NE in the direction of / in response to TC Paula (12P). It is located at the northern edge of a 300hPa trough. What is very interesting is that it seems to have been 'anchored' in the one spot for the past 12 hours!!
3	Clyve Herbert	A careful study of former TC Abigail over the inland of Northwestern Australia at 2250hrs tonight (03.03.01), shows a tight circulation with a possible weak apparent eye! This is most weird, there is very good low to mid level convergence and excellent high level divergence. The system has picked up increasing moisture over the past 12 hours, at the moment the centre appears to be drifting southwest possibly favouring a line of least resistance along the west Australia heat trough.
1	Clyve Herbert	The two cyclones this week have certainly vacuumed up the tropics around the Australian region, former TC Abigail may come out for another curtain call if the present circulation gets itself over open water, there appears to be a chance of this happening over the next two days. This system still has an impressive upper divergence field,with some of the outflow extending into northwest Victoria.