ASWA Victoria - June 1999 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page


Updated 1553 - 26th June 1999 - J ONeill
June 1999 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page ASWA Victoria
Date	Name	Information
5	Jane ONeill	ASWA meeting - this page is given a life!! We'll see how it comes along.
5	Clyve Herbert	Low pressure in the Bight looks like it might slow down and stall over the next 24 hours.
6	Andrew McDonald	MRF has thickness less than 540 Thursday afternoon. Could be interesting if it stays this way. GASP also has thickness b/w 536 and 540 - not a significant amount but that'd mean snow to about 1200m and maybe less.
7	Clyve Herbert / Jane ONeill	We're interested in this cloud band over Central Australia & the risk of cyclogenesis.
9	Andrew McDonald	MRF has a significant cold pool headed our way at 120hrs. Asuming it moves directly E instead of SE - our thickness by Sunday night/Monday morning would be low enough for snow to fall under water (aroung 528). It is a long way off and GASP BoM model doesn't really support it.
10	Andrew McDonald	Thickness less than 534 at Monday 10am
10	Andrew McDonald	1.15pm - Bundoora Pea sized hail
10	Clyve Herbert	Upper level trough in Central Victoria moving east. Surface low will probably form in the east of Bass Strait within the next 24 hours.
10	Nick Sykes	5.27pm - Ashwood Well after nothing much all day a good period of heavy rain has set in in Melbourne. In the last hour I have had 17mm (Ashwood) and looks like more is streaming up the bay, so hopefully more to come. This is certainly a better fall than anyone imagined out of this front. It looked dead early this morning (the front), but it certainly has produced now. Another heavy shower just now, could get 20plus mm
10	Jane ONeill	6.30pm - Bayswater Drove through varying intensities along the Eastern Freeway between 5.20pm & 5.45pm. Mainly 10-20mm/hr, with some 20-40mm/hr - average drive speed 70kmh on a 100km freeway - wipers at top speed. A lot of water on the road. SW wind - leaf debris along Rooks Road in Mitcham. 17.5mm Bayswater: 5pm - 6.30pm
10	Chris Gribben	7.32pm - North Balwyn Wind gusts with squalls guesstimated at 30-40kn - raining consistently here for about 1.5 - 2 hours with occasional heavy falls.
Goto Radar loop & MSL analysis
11	Blair Trewin	Melbourne has had ~46mm in the 24 hours to 9 this morning. This is a new record for June (previously 44.2) - the record length is 145 years, although on the other hand June is the only month in which 50mm has never been recorded (the July record is 74.4). Rain was falling steadily from about 4 until at least 11 last night. Merri and Darebin Creeks are flowing strongly and probably about 1metre above their usual level, but not high enough for any flooding of consequence.
11	Jane ONeill	Dandenong Creek had broken its banks at Boronia Road by 8pm last night.
11	Dane Newman	Only a few showers were expected but Melbourne received 46mm in the 24 hours to 9am, an all time June record. No record here in Kilsyth 39.8mm to 9am we had 44.2mm on June 7 last year. still a few showers around but the heavy stuff is gone. Yesterday max was 12.6c (in Kilsyth) overnight min 8.9c.
11	Nick Sykes	Cold outbreak for Monday
11	Andrew McDonald	AVN has Sunday night shaping up really nicely. Thickness forecast to go below 535 by 6z and by morning Monday thickness could go less than 530!!! MSLP is expected to be pretty low as well - about 1000hpa on Sunday night. There should be a pretty significant cold air cell outbreak in Adelaide Sunday night and Monday extending to Melbourne by Monday morning. It's shaping up a lot like last night but stronger and colder.
11	Dane Newman	Kilsyth Frosty across most of Victoria with many inland centres recording below 0 temperatures this morning. Here in Kilsyth we had our first below 0 morning this year with the temperature dropping to minus 0.3c. Even the bit of rain water 0.2mm in the rain guage was still frozen at 9am.
12	Andrew McDonald	Greensborough Down to -1 here last night. Water in iceream buckets outside froze over. Thick ice on cars - frozen water droplets as the hit the car from the power lines.
12	Rod Aikman	Bendigo After a generally clear night, the minimum temperature fell to -0.3 this morning. Early this morning high and middle level cloud from the advancing northwest cloudband moved in rapidly; and this coupled with a very light northeasterly air flow at the surface, and subsidence inversion, caused the maximum temperature to only reach a chilly 7.7 deg.
13	Jane ONeill	Bayswater - 9.33am Light rain has just started to fall. Forecast 500mb temps put all of Victoria at -30C (or less) for tonight & tomorrow. 10am sounding on May 15 had Laverton's 500mb temp at -27.9C. Yesterday's 500mb temp at Laverton was -22.9C.
13	Andrew McDonald	Baw Baw has about 2-3cm of patchy snow and Buller a dusting in non-snowmaking areas - Baw Baw should get at least 30cm maybe up to 45/50cm. It'll start snowing in the mountains by 4pm and keep snowing until Monday late or even Tuesday morning. And because Baw Baw is further S it'll have colder air and more moisture and it'll be there for longer.
13	Jane ONeill	Snow on Mt Donna Buang - still snowing lightly at 4.30 - 5pm - there was at least 1cm by 4.30. Temperature of 0.6C. Occasional snowflakes making it down to approximately 750m.
13	Debbie Parker	Weather today on Port Phillip was pretty wild. Constant direction bearing ~350 degrees (NNW) most of the morning built from 12 knots at 08:00 (at St Kilda) to 20 knots by 09:30. They had 28 knots at Point Wilson at 06:45 & the marine forecast was for 20 - 30 knots NE -> NW (pretty spot on) so we knew what was coming. By 10:00 we had a constant 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots & that built further during the morning with higher gusts. Armed with our 'new' knowledge of the BOM forecasts we had quickly added our 40% to the 30 & went out expecting up to 42 knots which is exactly what we got. Our highest reading was just over 40 knots although one of the official vessels recorded a 46 knot gust. We were back in the marina by 13:00 so missed out on the rest.
14	Jane ONeill	Mt Donna Buang 1-2pm (1250m) in the Yarra Valley 6-10cm snow on the ground, frozen trees and still snowing steadily when we arrived just after 1pm. Snowflakes still falling to 900m on the way down. 0.2C above 1000m
15	Jane ONeill	Bayswater - 7am Sleet - is it snowing on Mt Dandenong?
15	Blair Trewin	Sunday and Monday in Daylesford (650m) and the models suggested thicknesses in the upper 520s on Monday, which would have been enough for snow there, perhaps quite a lot of it. Only a few flakes around 11 on Monday morning but nothing else. Melbourne had virtually no rain on Sunday - the flow was NW and, while the northern slopes of the ranges had rain most of the day, Melbourne was in a rainshadow. (Even going 20km south from Daylesford made a big difference). Monday was just as cold, but nowhere near as wet - just occasional showers in a fresh SW flow. I'd guess the snow level was around 800-900 metres, which was consistent with what Jane and co. got.
17	Clyve Herbert	Low pressure system in the Bight is complicated. Looks like weakening and moving directly east through Bass Strait or slightly southeast. Atmosphere ahead of the leading trough is conditionally unstable. There's a risk of isolated thunderstorms & locally heavy showers especially in the west and along the divide later today and tomorrow.
17	Peter Matters	Currently (5.20Z 17/06) there is an impressive squall line - on radar - crossing Kangaroo Island and SE S.A. Note also, that projected LI's for Victoria for this time Friday are around the 1 - minus 1 figure.
18	Clyve Herbert	Cb to the SW of Pakenham with a lowering & gust front at 1620 - estimated precip rate of 20-40mm/hr
20	Jane ONeill	Bayswater Current observation: surface wind strong NE, upper & middle level cloud moving from NW. Low pressure to the west of Tasmania moving SE. Monday am forecast thickness of 540 over central Victoria, with strong SW steering flow. Showers mainly in the SW of the state and coastal areas. Possible small hail in morning in isolated showers.
24	Rod Aikman	Bendigo Thick fog formed here in Bendigo just before 17:00 EST this afternoon (24/6). This is a most unusual occurrence for Bendigo. Fog will sometimes form during the day following or during rain in the cooler months, however for fog to form during the afternoon of a fine and partly cloudy day is rather exceptional. The last occurrence of such a nature here was back in the winter of 1988 - which was a very mild and humid winter. Weather observations at 16:00: dry bulb 7.5 deg, rel. humidity 100%, dew point 7.3 deg, MSL pressure 1029.5 falling, wind NW force 1, cloud oktas 9, minimum 0.7, maximum 13.3.
25	Jane ONeill	Small area of low pressure forming just to the east of Adelaide. Low in the Tasman, which was moving WNW, is now sliding SW. Interaction between these systems will depend on the strength and position of the high and the upper steering flow. Front which was forecast to pass through Melbourne this morning has pretty much dissipated. Second line of cloud began changing orientation about 11am, becoming more N - S than NW - SE, and will possibly be drawn into the SA circulation.
26	Andrew McDonald	The high that is sitting over us doesn't move away until Monday - a significant looking cold front and proceeding cold air pool is forecast to head our way by about Wednesday night/ Thursday morning (30/6 - 1/7).