*Updated 2143 - 2nd
August 1999 - J ONeill |
| July 1999 Forecast Outlook, Discussion &
Report Page ASWA Victoria |
| Date |
Name |
Information |
| 3 |
Jane ONeill |
ASWA meeting |
| 4 |
Andrew McDonald |
Cold pool heading our way
Friday/Saturday next weekend. Maybe slight chance of hail showers. There is another half
decent looking cold pool backed by a 60-70knt SSW jet heading up from down south which
would arrive here late Sunday/Monday. If the cold pool that moves through Friday keeps its
heading (ENE) it might form an ECL off NSW. There seems to be a weak upper-level trough in
the area at the same time which could help set this off. If this happens we could get a
half decent (as in thickness below 532) cold outbreak on Monday/Tuesday next week (12/13th
July) |
| 4 |
Chris Gribben |
I'd be surprised if we get
anything more than 3-5mm on Wednesday/Thursday with this system - not a lot of 850mb
moisture (50-60% humidity at best) and certainly no real drop in temperature - the 540
line remains over the southern end of Tasmania. The total totals index is quite low too
and that tends to be a good indication of a rain (but not storms in my opinion) event in
Victoria - less than 40 on Wednesday at 00z and the precipitable water is low too - around
the 10mm or less mark |
| 5 |
Chris Gribben |
While little if any rain is indicated for
Wednesday the 7th now - late Thursday and Friday look very interesting at this stage. A
low is forecast to develop south of SA on Friday 00z at about 43S. The 1000-500mb
thickness level is about 543 on Friday at 00z - so there could well be good snowfalls on
the alps but probably not on the hills around Melbourne. The 200mb winds are SSW so will
push the heaviest rain in this low through the northern half of the state - but we should
see falls in all areas. The biggest falls should be in northern Victoria although at this
stage nearly the whole state could get 15mm or more on Friday. |
| 5 |
Andrew McDonald |
The next few days will be windy with
patchy rain extending from the W across Vic from Wed to Fri. Sat will be slightly cooler
before becoming fine for the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week. |
| 9 |
Andrew McDonald |
MRF has 540 line over us (finally) on
Sunday/ Monday hopefully resulting in a few snow showers on the alps - they need it badly.
GASP has a fairly significant cold front heading our way by about the 18th which will
hopefully break the pattern of these blocking highs, allowing for some decent cold
outbreaks and snowfalls. |
| 10 |
Jane ONeill |
About 1200 today an area to the west of
Perth in the Indian Ocean started showing signs of a dramatic increase in water vapour in
quite a localised area. This has continued to increase both in size and density
throughout the afternoon. A healthy infeed of water vapour from well south of
Indonesia, and the zonal nature of the upper flow suggests that although vorticity is not
probable, the airstream over us will remain rather moist for the next 3 days with some
middle level convection occurring rather like that of this afternoon with mild daytime
temperatures. |
| 10 |
Rod Aikman |
Not a drop of yesterday's
(9/7/99) rain made it to Bendigo. Although there were falls of up to 20 mm in the Mallee
and Wimmera, the whole system weakened before it reached the central portion of the State.
At 06:30 yesterday morning before I left for work I was observing the motion of the broken
mid-level cloud against the crescent moon, and the movement was practically imperceptible.
The blocking action in the Tasman Sea is obviously the culprit once again. On the subject
of blocking and anticyclones, it looks as though this type of pattern will dominate
South-eastern Australia again all next week. |
| 12 |
Clyve Herbert |
Cyclogenesis over central
Victoria this morning. |
| 12 |
Jimmy Deguara (NSW) |
Sydney - 1800AEST
You will see a localised rotation SE
of Sydney - go to http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/temp/radar/07121800.gif |
| 14 |
Nick Sykes |
The
MRF and NGP Models are showing a marked change in the weather pattern that has existed
over Southern Australia this winter. The high pressure systems are forecast to move to
their more normal winter position to the north, for weeks now the highs have been
positioned far too south to allow any decent lows/fronts to effect the alps. The movement
of the high pressure systems will introduce a westerly flow throughout southern Australia,
with regular fronts.
|
| 15 |
Andrew McDonald |
Thickness forecast to less than 540 (MRF)
from the 18th with a dip below 535 somtime late Monday. Should stay fairly cold until
Wednesday but another low/front moving across by the weekend. Forecast - snow down to
1200m (similar to 15th June) on Monday night/Tuesday. Probably get about 15-20cm at major
resorts and 5-10cm at lower resorts and ski fields like Donna Buang |
| 2/8 |
Jane ONeill |
Apologies for the lack of information from
15th July - webmaster unavailable for updates till end of month. |