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January 2003 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page Victoria |
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| Date | Name | Information |
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| 31 | . | Overview: A trough and front is moving through southern and central New South Wales having produced some moderate scattered falls through south central Victoria during Thursday from a ~450km wide cloudband. Winds shift cooler southwesterly behind the front with a wave trough following in this southwesterly flow onshore from the eastern Bight towards southwestern Victoria. A field of cold air convection is approaching Tasmania. TC Beni continues slow movement in a generally southeasterly direction while the high over New Zealand continues to maintain a ridge along the Queensland coast. A moisture plume extends from the Top End / Kimberley area and into the trough moving through New South Wales, but very warm upper temperatures are suppressing potential convection. A high is ridging into the western Bight and the west coast trough is deepening down offshore of the coast, having moved west during Thursday. Discussion: TC Beni looks likely to begin to move southwest during Friday and further into the weekend. The trough and front moving through eastern Australia during Friday has a ridge of high pressure building in behind it and an upper ridge ahead of it. Precipitation totals from this system are likely to diminish during Friday. The northwestern extent of the trough will continue to remain anchored near and just south of Northwest Cape, with further widespread showers and storms over Western Australia. To the south of the west coast trough, the high will ridge further into the Bight....then there's a brief pause in the activity to the west!!...like an inhalation........ Rainfall potential |
| 30 | . | Overview: A broad and complex trough crossing southeastern Australia during Wednesday night / Thursday morning with scattered light falls. A front approaching the eastern Bight associated with a deep upper trough bringing significantly colder air through in the middle levels. Tropical moisture continues to feed into the southeast extension of this trough across the Northern Territory and Western Australia with showers and storms in the Top End and northwest. A strong baroclinic area near the front is the focus of widespread storms in western South Australia. TC Beni has deepened to 925hPa!! and has become caught up on the downhill side of the upper ridge and is moving southeast. The high in the Tasman ridges along the Queensland coast while a weak midlevel trough allows some cloud development, but little else over inland Queensland. Discussion: The trough will slow its eastward movement during Wednesday night and Thursday morning, allowing the front to catch up during Thursday as the system straightens itself out and crosses southern and central New South Wales. The high in the Tasman Sea will move only slowly across New Zealand but will maintain the ridge along the Queensland coast. TC Beni will weaken and continue to move southeast. The trough will remain anchored over the Northwest Cape area of Western Australia while the eastern extent moves through South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales. Falls are likely to be heavier further northwest and closer to the infeed of tropical moisture. Widespread scattered showers are likely behind the front and ahead of the high ridging into the western Bight. The west coast trough will deepen southward during Thursday. Rainfall potential |
| 29 | . | Overview: The high in the eastern Bight ridges through Bass Strait into the southern Tasman Sea and strengthens to the south of a broad trough covering much of the Australian continent. TC Beni continues a slow drift in a general southwesterly direction with a ridge along the Queensland coast providing a buffer. A front extending from a deep low in the Southern Ocean is approaching the southwest corner of the continent associated with a broad upper trough being accompanied by some col air. Atmospheric moisture continues to build slowly over South Australia and Western Australia from the Indian Ocean, while a northeasterly flow brings in low level moisture over Victoria. The upper jet can be identified by the sinuous curve of upper level cloud exiting the east of the continent over northern New South Wales. Discussion: During Wednesday, the high will move rapidly into the central Tasman Sea and is likely to strengthen the surface ridge along the Queensland coast, which *may* slow TC Beni's southwesterly movement for a time. Scattered showers and storms are likely to continue over the Top End and eastern Kimberley. The trough and trailing front will move through South Australia during Wednesday bringing a somewhat dramatic change from very hot northwesterly winds to much milder southwesterlies. Some heavy falls are likely to be associated with this trough, mainly in the south, and especially as the trough encounters more moisture as it moves into Victoria late Wednesday / Thursday. Rainfall potential |
| 28 | . | Overview: The front has sheared away from the trough currently moving northeast through New South Wales, with a high ridging in to the south through Bass Strait. With very warm conditions aloft, there has been little activity associated with this trough during Monday. A weak upper trough is apparent over southeastern Queensland, and the north of the continent comes under the influence of a surface trough. TC Beni is beginning to move southwestward and should be monitored as there is only very weak ridging to its southwest, not enough to deflect it to the southeast - showers over Cape York are part of this system. The west coast trough has deepened southward inland of the coast and the tropical low struggles to maintain its identity in the Shark Bay area as it drifts south - some isolated moderate falls have been reported during Monday. More moderate temperatures over southern Australia during Monday with a general southeasterly flow, with higher moisture levels than during the past few days. Interesting to note the intensity of some of the lows near to Antarctica on Monday - 972 to 974hPa! Discussion: During Tuesday the high in the eastern Bight will move into the Tasman Sea and slightly strengthen the surface ridge along the Queensland coast, with the trough lying through New South Wales becoming more negative longitudinal with the chance of showers and storms mainly in the east. Isolated showers over parts of the east coast in a moist northeast-southeasterly airstream. TC Beni looks to continue its southwestward movement during Tuesday. A general infeed of moisture across the entire length of the northern coast, as well as a continuation of the moisture plume from the Indian Ocean, all serves to increase the available moisture over the continent, which should make conditions later in the week more interesting in terms of rainfall likelihood over southern and eastern Australia. The west coast trough will interact with a weak front approaching the southwestern corner during Tuesday and move east through Western Australia, with some reasonable falls likely in the south. Rainfall potential |
| 27 | . | Overview: Fires in northeastern and eastern Victoria as well as southeastern New South Wales and in the Canberra and Blue Mountains areas are causing real concern as a complex and very gusty windchange moves through on Sunday night / Monday morning. A complex trough (extending southeast from Western Australia) and front, with an impressive cloudband associated with them is moving through southern Australia. The high in the Tasman Sea has remained slow moving and the ridge along the Queensland coast is being maintained, helping to slow the movement of the trough east. TC Beni is also slow moving and has deepened 13hPa in 24hours!! The tropical low over Western Australia and the west coast trough complicate matters further over our longitudes! The high ridging into the western Bight has also slowed. Discussion: During Monday, the front may shear away to the east while the trough remains captive over eastern Australia and moves along the coast slowly. TC Beni looks to remain slow moving and the outflow appears to be losing organisation, with some weakening being likely. Shower activity over Queensland will remain in the Cape York area and the northwest. The cloudband extending to eastern Australia from Western Australia will tilt more negative longitudinally (ie: more west-east) as the western end remains anchored near Northwest Cape, and the eastern extent slowly moves along the coast. Further heavy falls are likely in Western Australia from this system, with falls over the east less widespread and lighter with less available moisture. The ridge of high pressure in the Bight will bud off and move towards Bass Strait during Monday, with conditions in the southeast becoming more pleasant under a southeasterly flow. Rainfall potential |
| 26 | David Jones | Wednesday is shapping up to be a near
repeat of yesterday if the models are to believed. The thickness values in all models are
near 580 on Wednesday through Melbourne, moderate N/NW winds, and 850hPa temps of around
26-28C. IF this eventuates, expect another does of low to mid 40s across the SE. The peak
of the warmth this time appears a little further north and east - to tell the truth, if
the models are half right I wouldn't be at all suprised to see some northern Vic and NSW
sites take a run at the high 40s. The big unknowns are the amount of cloud and the moition of the tropical low in WA. A SE track on the low and cloud band could give cloudy and sticky conditions rather than baking heat. Also watch for some rain on Wed night/Thursday. |
| 26 | . | Overview: Record breaking maximum temperatures in South Australia and the southeastern corner of the continent today, with amazing temperatures at the 850hPa level (1500m) in the Melbourne sounding....24°C! The high in the Tasman Sea remains quasi-stationary with a ridge along the Queensland coast. This high has slowed the eastward movement of the trough. The large upper high over the southeast has helped keep conditions stable. By late Saturday, the trough had made it into southwestern Victoria with the front lagging to the west in the Bight. Nice delineation zone on the western side of the moisture plume associated with the trough! The tropical low over the Pilbara has also remained slow moving and has assisted in bringing in the broad band of tropical moisture currently moving through Western Australia. TC Beni in the Coral Sea has become organised and has moved west-southwest and even now is influencing the weather in the northeast tropics. The tropical low and trough has triggered some good falls through parts of Western Australia. Discussion: The high in the Tasman Sea will remain slow moving and weaken slightly during Sunday. The ridge along the Queensland coast will move west and the upper high, currently occupying Victoria will move to the northeast, effectively stabilising conditions over New South Wales. TC Beni is likely to move northwest along the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) with showers and heavy falls over tropical Queensland contracting further north. Coastal showers are possible further south. The high in the western Bight will ridge further east to the south of the continent, and the tropical low will help to deepen the trough southward along the west coast. Heavy falls remain likely along the trough which is currently moving through the Gascoyne and Goldfields to the southeast of the low as well as the area directly influenced by the low. Rainfall potential |
| 25 | Lindsay Smail | Geelong's highest ever daily maximum was
recorded on Saturday 25th: 44.6 degrees at 3pm. This passes the previous record set on
16th and 19th January, 1908, (44.2). Although Geelong's temperatures have been measured at
different locations over the period, the actual figures in 1908 were all considered
official by the appropriate body at the time. |
| 25 | . | Overview: Strengthening north-northwesterly winds ahead of a trough and front moving only slowly east during Saturday. Fire dangers extreme in the southeast of the country. Keep checking the fire situation. A tropical low over the Coral Sea is becoming better organised and should be monitored. This is beginning to affect weather on the central Queensland coast. A tropical low over the Pilbara / Gascoyne area is moving south and is likely to trigger some reasonable falls over the Gascoyne, with showers and storms along the trough running southeast of the low. A high is ridging into the western Bight. Discussion: The low over the Pilbara will continue move south-southeast during Saturday with widespread showers and some heavy falls. Moisture from this low may combine with the trough moving through the state and bring some reasonable falls in the southeast of Western Australia, but the following front is likely to undergo frontolysis as it moves east and comes under the influence of the upper high with falls becoming only light further east. Easterly movement of the systems influencing southern Australia over the next day or so is likely to be slow. The high in the Tasman Sea will remain slow moving and ridge along the eastern seaboard which will slow the movement of the trough through southern Australia later Saturday. Rainfall potential |
| 24 | . | Overview: The high is 'dumbelling' around the southeast corner of the continent and sends a ridge along the east coast into the tropics. As this ridge has strengthened, the trough lying through New South Wales and Queensland has shifted west while a weak upper trough has moved over northern New South Wales. Storms have been triggered in both inland Queensland as well as New South Wales during Thursday. A complex trough lies over Western Australia, with the 'old' monsoon low beginning to show signs of better organisation, but doing it near 16°S - a little too south for efficient and prolonged development, but nonetheless, is showing signs of some organisation. The west coast trough has moved inland and an active front and trough complex is moving to the south of the southwest corner. Significant moisture is being drawn southwards into this area from the Indian Ocean near to Timor. Discussion: The high near the southeast of the continent will move into the Tasman Sea, the trough over eastern Australia will weaken and become absorbed into the trough moving in from the west of the continent, the pressure gradient will be strengthened between the high to the east and the approaching complex trough resulting in strengthening northerly winds, an increase in temperatures (both at the surface and the 850hPa level and bring the fire danger back up to extreme levels over southeastern Australia... The main focus over the Australian longitudes other than on the bushfires for the next 2 - 3 days, will be on the complex trough moving through Western Australia, increasing to near record temperatures forecast and the tropical moisture being drawn into the trough. Rainfall potential |
| 23 | Andrew McDonald | Depending on which model you look at,
temps over the next 2-3 days could vary quite a bit. AVN and NOGAPS point towards temps pretty much as the BoM are forecasting. As they stand at the moment we are looking at high 30's in the S half of the state and low 40's in the N half of the state tomorrow. As for Saturday, these two models also hinge pretty well with what the BoM are going for with low 40's pretty much across the state with some mid 40's in the N. Both of these models have the change right through the entire state by Sunday night but with warm air persisting throughout the day across all but the SW of the state. Again, these models are in agreeance with the BoM forecast (or vice versa). GASP is another story thou. GASP is progging the air that comes down from the NW to be a good 3-5C warmer than the abovementioned models. By 10pm Friday, GASP has 24C at 850 sitting over Melbourne and out to the NW of the state and thicknesses rising above 576. Given this outlook, I think we could see quite a few 40's in the W half of the state tomorrow and dropping to the high 30's across the E half. GASP continues the "great bakeoff" on Saturday with 850 temps increasing to a mammoth 28C across parts of Vic with 26C across most, if not all of the state. Thicknesses rise even further, cracking the 580 mark. Given this scenario, we could be looking at temperatures getting up into the high 40's in the NW and the mid 40's across the W, SW, Cent and N districts. On Sunday, GASP keeps some extremely warm temps over the N and NE parts of the state before the change. Post frontal air should be realtively cool keeping the SW parts of the state down into the low-mid 20's and you can probably increase those temperature by 5C for every 80km E of a line from about Cape Otway to Bendigo (so that by the time you get to the NE parts of the state you'd be looking at low 40's again before the change). |
| 23 | . | Overview: The high in the eastern Bight ridges through bass Strait and along the New South Wales coast, cradling a rather broad trough that has stalled over the northeast of the state and southeastern Queensland with widespread storms during the afternoon. A strengthening upper jet heading across the continent and east across the Queensland coast can be traced in the satpic - look for the streak of cirrus....The southeast of the country languishes under the ridge of surface high pressure reinforced by an upper ridge, and is experiencing stable weather, but fires are still a real problem, mainly in the northeast of Victoria today. The monsoon low wandering along the West Australian coast has lost its focus during the afternoon after a brief organisational flurry...but wait there's more...keep an eye on it for the next couple of days. There has also been a dramatic buildup of low level moisture over much of the continent during the last day or three. The west coast trough is linking to the monsoon low and continuing to deepen southward inland of the coast. A low is approaching the western Bight Discussion: The upper flow over the Australian longitudes will become more strongly meridional (upper troughs and ridges) during Friday, which might make tracking of weather systems a little harder over the next few days, except under the influence of the upper ridge lying over the southeast of the continent. The surface high will weaken as it ridges around the southeast corner of the continent, but will still pressure force the trough of low pressure through the east of the continent further westward, to lie mainly through western Queensland during Thursday. The west coast trough will move only slowly eastward until later on Thursday when it links up with the approaching front, with widespread showers and storms likely over much of Western Australia excepting the far southwest, where they may be influenced moreso by just the front. Rainfall potential |
| 22 | . | Overview: A high lies centred through the Bight with the trough lying through northeastern New South Wales and into Queensland. Showers and scattered storms have been generated within the trough, mainly during the afternoon and evening. A fire in northeastern Victoria is threatening a number of settlements and the situation should be monitored closely. The monsoon low continues to travel around the Australian coastline and is this evening passing Port Hedland and heading southwest! triggering widespread showers, heavy falls and storms throughout the northwest. The west coast trough has deepened southward through the day. Discussion: The high in the Bight will slow its movement during Wednesday, strengthening a ridge along the east coast, and the trough will move into Queensland and out of New South Wales (except the far northeastern corner) and become quasi-stationary. Showers and storms within the trough during Wednesday through Queensland are to be expected. The monsoon low with associated heavy falls and convective activity will continue to drift southwest, while the west coast trough deepens further south and drifts slowly east. A low approaching the western Bight will drift southeast and have little effect except for the southwestern corner of the continent. Rainfall potential |
| 21 | . | Overview: A complex synoptic setup over eastern Australia during Monday night. A largely inactive trough and front crossed the western and central areas of Victoria during Monday, with occasional drops of rain being noted through the smoke pall over Melbourne. Isolated storms in the west of the state this morning dissipated to a band of mostly virga, moving east slowly. Two wind changes follow... meanwhile in South Australia the northern extent of the trough is triggering storms where there is more moisture. A ridge remains along the Queensland coast with a trough lying inland through the south of the state with isolated storms being triggered. The monsoon low has drifted west toward the Kimberley, with the beginnings of a trough down the west coast beginning to form. A broad convergence area over the western Top End is triggering some heavy falls and occasional storms and moisture has also been southeast through western Queensland. A high is ridging into the western Bight just to the south of the continent. Discussion: The trough will move into New South Wales and slow as it moves northward along the coast, and the ridge will bud off into a cell of high pressure, strengthen and once again move quickly across the Bight ridging into the Bass Strait area. isolated coastal showers over the Victorian and South Australian coastlines are likely with areas away from the coast remaining mainly fine. The deep low in the southern Bight (981hPa at 4pm) will pass well south of Tasmania. Inland Queensland will be likely to see more scattered showers and storms during Tuesday with a broad area of moisture lying over the inland which originated from the monsoon low a few days ago. In Western Australia, the west coast trough will deepen inland from the coast during Tuesday, while in the northwest, the monsoon low will continue to trigger widespread showers and occasional storms. Fire conditions: Updated information about the fires near Mt Hotham can be found here, Victoria as a whole can be found here, and with information about fires in New South Wales here (click on 'Current State Fire Map'). Rainfall potential |
| 20 | . | Overview: At 4pm the high was planted over Tasmania on its way to the Tasman Sea with a weak ridge along the New South Wales coast behind a trough moving north along the coast triggering storms in northeast New South Wales and southeast Queensland. The high to the east of New Zealand is continuing to ridge across the Tasman Sea to Queensland. The trough over inland Queensland is feeding middle level moisture in from the Coral Sea. The monsoon low has edged westward during Sunday with some heavy falls recorded in the northwest Top End. A trough is moving through South Australia and the Bight with storms mainly near the coast and near to the vorticity centre(~42°S). A front connected to a deep low in the southern Bight is crossing the southwest corner of the continent. A heat low lies over the Pilbara. Discussion: The high will move into the Tasman Sea during Monday, remaining weak, with a ridge along the Queensland coast. A broad northerly flow will become established over much of eastern Australia during the next 24 hours, increasing temperatures again as the trough moves in from South Australia. The monsoon low will continue its westward slide toward the Kimberley. A ridge of high pressure will move into the western Bight following the front, and the west coast trough will begin to deepen down the coast later Monday and into Tuesday. Fire conditions will again become extreme. Updated information about the fires near Mt Hotham can be found here, with information about fires in New South Wales here (click on 'Current State Fire Map'). Rainfall potential |
| 19 | . | Overview: A complex situation with very hot conditions over the southeast of the continent with fires threatening parts of northeast Victoria, parts of the Snowy Mountains, Canberra and areas around the ACT as well as Sydney. Much of the Sydney metro area had maxima of 43 / 44°C, if not record breaking, then very close to it. A high in the Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the Queensland coast, while a weak surface low developed in southeastern Australia during Saturday. A high in the Bight is edging east towards Bass Strait while the trough in the Eucla is triggering isolated storms. The monsoon trough over the north of the continent continues to expand towards the southeast with a lot of tropical moisture being advected into southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. A weak upper trough has developed over the southwestern corner of the continent. A high is ridging in from the Indian Ocean near to 30°S. Discussion: During Sunday the high in the Bight will move through Bass Strait and into the Tasman Sea and ridge along the New South Wales coast. The inland trough through the state will move northeast and contract further north. A weaker ridge will lie across the Queensland coast from the high now east of New Zealand. The monsoon trough over northern Australia will weaken through Sunday and the focus of lowest pressure will shift westwards towards the heat low over the Pilbara, but showers and occasional storms are still likely in northwestern Queensland and the Top End. The upper trough over the southwest corner will move east faster than the surface trough and may interact with it to trigger isolated showers and storms in South Australia during Sunday. Rainfall potential |
| 18 | . | Overview: The monsoon low continues to exert an influence over a large proportion of the Australian continent with a rather complex setup becoming more apparent. The centre is currently located in the western Gulf region. Showers and isolated storms continue, but falls have tapered off. Tropical moisture continues to feed into the trough running into southeastern Australia. The high in the Tasman Sea is continuing to block the eastward progression of the trough over the southeast, while a ridge extends along the east coast into the tropics. As this ridge has strengthened, the northern part of the trough has moved southwest, to now lie from the Interior of Western Australia, through South Australia and to far eastern Victoria and the southeast corner of New South Wales. A front is moving through the Bight and looks to affect Tasmania during Saturday. A high is ridging into the western Bight south of the continent. Discussion: The high in the Tasman looks to remain quasi stationary during Saturday, with the ridge along the Queensland coast strengthening, and the trough continuing to retrograde in its more northerly extent. The southern extent will remain over New South Wales down to far eastern Victoria. The front will cross Tasmania and southern Victoria during Saturday with only isolated showers along the southern Victorian coast and western and southern parts of Tasmania, and is likely to become absorbed into the trough over the southeast corner of the continent which may move to the northeast along the coast. The high will move quickly through the Bight as the upper flow becomes more zonal south of the continent, with an active front approaching from the west marking an active upper trough. Showers and isolated storms will continue to be a feature of the area affected by the monsoon low and the trough meandering across the continent, with activity more frequent in those areas with greater atmospheric moisture - definitely not much of the inland southeast where low level moisture looks to remain only 50 - 100hPa thick! Rainfall potential |
| 17 | Nick Sykes | It's a long way out out but with the
intense heat build up over inland Australia it is worth looking to see if a decent
northerly could develop to get it south. Monday has potential, but it looks like the change may come trough early, and again the high looks positioned too far south for really nice infeed of hot air. The real promise is the Australia Day weekend, the models have the a very hot pool of air remaining over inland Australia and are hinting at the high been positioned more in the Northern Tasman Sea. This will allow a very hot, deep NW airstream to develop. This could be further inhanced by a deep western australian trough. |
| 17 | . | Overview: A broad area of high pressure occupies the southern Tasman Sea and maintains the ridge along the east coast, and together with another ridge extending westward to the Bight through Bass Strait, continues to cradle the trough lying over southeastern Australia. Some mid-level moisture is beginning to feed into this trough from northwestern Queensland and the environs of the monsoon low (as can be see here). This monsoon low continues to wander about the north of the continent for the 12th day in a row - if it is the same low....? bringing substantial falls to many parts of the northeast Top End and the Queensland Gulf country and islands. Outflow from this low is beginning to sag southward - keep watching this low for possible surprises! The trough in western Queensland and the southeastern extent over the southeastern corner of New South Wales are both triggering scattered storms. The west coast trough has deepened southward and bisected the baric ridge, while a front passes through the western Bight. Discussion: As the ridge of high pressure broadens over the Queensland coast, the trough will be forced southwestward into the northeast of South Australia and will move slightly west in Victoria. Significant atmospheric moisture (or lack of it) may be a feature through Friday. The trough over southern Western Australia will move east, and another high will ridge into the western Bight. The monsoon low in the north should be monitored for developments. Jet streaks of high cloud over Tasmania will move through during Friday. Rainfall potential |
| 16 | . | Overview: The monsoon low continues its wanderings about the tropical north. A trough continues to lie from the Northern Territory through to the southeast of the continent during Wednesday afternoon, storms in western Queensland and inactive over much the southern half. Isolated showers and storms over the alpine areas are doing little to help the fire situation in the northeast of Victoria. The front has sheared away to the east and left the trough blocked by the ridge of high pressure that has built along the east coast. A moderate strength high is located in the Bight with the west coast trough having deepened through Wednesday and bisected the ridge of high pressure to the south of the continent. A series of fronts south of the baric ridge is passing through the southwestern Bight. Discussion: The monsoon low in the north will continue to wander about, with some heavy falls under infeed bands especially where they cross the coast. The trough through the northern inland will remain largely inactive in a dry environment. The high in the Bight will ridge around the southeast 'corner' and help to maintain the ridge along the coast. This in turn will keep the trough over the southeast captive. The front that sheared away during Wednesday will be almost to New Zealand, while the trough remains. Convective activity will continue to build through the next day or three, mainly in the northeast of Victoria and southeast corner of New South Wales, extending further west of this area at time, but with activity remaining mainly north of the Victorian ranges. The west coast trough will commence moving east during Thursday and a deep upper trough will move through the western Bight in tandem. Lower pressures will shift towards the west over the north of the continent. Temperatures over South Australia and the east of Western Australia will increase ahead of the trough. Rainfall potential |
| 15 | . | Overview: A monsoon low embedded within the trough lying over northern Australia continues to meander about. Upper outflow from this system follows an anticyclonic curve across the Queensland coast in to the Coral Sea. A trough extends to the southeast through western Queensland and lines up with the front moving through southeastern Australia. The high in the southern Tasman Sea remains slow moving and is maintaining the ridge along the east coast. The low in the eastern Bight has moved quickly southeast and the high to the west has ridged across the Bight. The west coast trough is very slowly beginning to reform. A jetstreak associated with a broad upper trough is apparent to the southwest of Western Australia. Discussion: The monsoon low will continue to trigger showers, rain periods and storms over a large part of the Territory, with some heavy falls as it continues to wander the near Gulf area. The front crossing Victoria on Tuesday night and Wednesday will shear away in the south, leaving the trough through western Queensland to southeastern New South Wales lagging against the ridge lying along the east coast. This trough is likely to deepen southward through Wednesday and extend into the far east and northeast of Victoria and then move westward as the ridge broadens later in the week. Isolated showers and storms are possible in the southeast of New South Wales and far eastern and northeastern Victoria, but will likely be more frequent in Queensland nearer to greater available moisture especially during Wednesday. The west coast trough will continue to deepen southward just inland of the coast while a front approaching the southwest corner may trigger isolated showers in the southwest as it passes through the Bight. The ridge through the Bight will extend into the Tasman Sea later Wednesday. Rainfall potential |
| 14 | . | Overview: The low in the eastern Bight has deepened and is sliding southeast with a trough crossing Victoria during Monday night. Tropical infeed can be traced from the Indian Ocean to the southeast of the continent. The high in the southern Tasman is slow moving and has built a ridge along the east coast which has strengthened during the past 24 hours. A broad trough with an embedded monsoon low (which has been attempting to get organised for the past week) lies across the north of the continent. The high coming into the western Bight is ridging more strongly to the north of the low in the Bight. Discussion: The high in the southern Tasman will remain slow moving during Tuesday and will maintain the ridge along the east coast. The southern part of the trough likely to shear away to the east, leaving a trough lingering over the southeastern corner of the continent. The wandering low over the Gulf country will continue lurking for at least another 24 hours, triggering some heavy falls from its inflow bands. The high entering the western Bight during Monday evening will extend rapidly across the Bight and help to cradle the trough over the southeast. Rainfall potential |
| 13 | . | Overview: The high in the southern Tasman Sea remains slow moving and has strengthened the ridge along the east coast during Sunday. Northern Australia remains under the influence of a broad trough with a large monsoon low continuing to wander about the southwest Gulf area. Upper outflow from this low is being drawn into the low near the North Island of New Zealand. The trough through central Queensland has triggered isolated storms through Sunday and there has also been seasonal storm activity in the Kimberley and east Pilbara. Warm to hot conditions over the southeast of the continent and fires over the alpine areas have been a concern through Sunday. A trough and front moving through the central Bight region and the Eucla and western regions of South Australia, is followed by a deep upper trough and 500hPa thermal trough. A strongly baroclinic zone precedes this frontal system, but lies mainly over the Bight. TC Ebula east of Madagascar is moving southeast and weakening. Discussion: The monsoon low looks to continue wandering about the Gulf region and eastern Territory during Monday with continuing solid rainfall totals during the next day or three.The trough lying through central Queensland will be pushed west as the ridge builds along the east coast. The trough moving through the Bight will deepen with upper level support being maintained, but looks most likely to slide southeast, with only isolated storms likely in the northern extension of the trough due to the lack of available moisture over South Australia and Victoria - but Victoria may do better with more mid level moisture available. Another high will ridge into the western Bight and the west coast trough will commence deepening slowly along the west coast. Areas to watch: the monsoon low for some more amazing rainfall totals during the next day or two, potentially over the east of Cape York dependant on direction of movement. Rainfall potential |
| 12 | . | Overview: The large monsoon low remains slow moving and is being monitored closely for further developments as it begins to show signs of improved organisation. Upper outflow across Queensland has become apparent. Heavy falls and strong winds are featuring in the western Gulf areas. A broad trough lies across the north of the continent and has firm midlevel support. A trough extends through inland Queensland. The high has slipped southeast to pass below Tasmania and extends a ridge along the east coast.The west coast trough is moving east through the Goldfields and Eucla while a cold front ahead of significantly colder air is crossing the southwest corner. Discussion: A ridge from the high in the southern Tasman high will strengthen along the east coast during the weekend. The monsoon low is likely to continue to become better organised - heavy falls will be a feature of this system (see Queensland comments). A trough lies through inland Queensland and is likely to trigger isolated showers and storms later in the weekend. A trough and front will move into South Australia during Sunday. A deep upper trough with tropical inflow is approaching the southwest of the continent, with the trough likely to extend as far north as 25°S. A significant cold air field is associated with this system and bears watching during the next few days as it moves east. A new high will ridge into the western Bight. Areas to watch: the monsoon low for some more amazing rainfall totals during the next day or two, potentially over the east of Cape York dependant on direction of movement. Rainfall potential |
| 10 | . | Overview: The large monsoon low over the Top End and remains slow moving. Pressure has remained steady and is likely to decline slightly. A broad trough continues to lie across the northern half of the continent and has firm upper support. A midlevel high dominates the southern half over a large high occupying the Bight. The west coast trough is deepening southward, and the remnants of the trough that moved through northern New South Wales last night is near to clearing out of southeast Queensland. Vorticity within this trough just off the New South Wales coast is identifiable at all levels through the atmosphere. The upper (300hPa) flow over much of the continent is strongly zonal, while the low that is located over the Tasman Sea is located within an area of more strongly meridional flow. Discussion: During Friday, the high will migrate slowly east through the Bass Strait region and direct a moist southeasterly flow onto the New South Wales coast. A ridge from this high will strengthen along the east coast during tomorrow and into the weekend. This high will continue steering fronts across the Tasmanian latitudes, with only weak pressure surges likely to be noted over southern Victoria, until it moves east of both states. The low over the Top End is likely to move further inland during Friday, and over an area which in some ways resembles a warm sea (+500mm recorded during the past week) may deepen over the coming day or so. A trough lies through inland Queensland but will remain largely inactive inland before the weekend. The low in the Tasman will continue to move away from Australian longitudes. A deep upper trough is approaching the southwest of the continent, with the trough likely to extend as far north as 25°S during the weekend. A significant cold air field is associated with this system and bears watching during the next few days. Areas to watch: the monsoon low, possible flooding over parts of the Northern Territory, the upper trough approaching the southwest of Western Australia. Rainfall potential |
| 9 | . | Overview: The large monsoon low has taken a holiday over the Top End and remains slow moving. Pressure has remained steady and is likely to continue to do so. Low pressures are analysed over this area both at 850 and 300hPa - a rain producer!! The trough and frontal system moving through New South Wales has triggered widespread storms over the central areas near to the coast and over the ranges, and this area of activity will continue to extend northeast during Wednesday night and Thursday. An area of developing vorticity has been identifiable along the trough through Wednesday as it moved through Victoria and southern and central New South Wales. The thermal trough (500hPa) moving through the southeast of the country will produce possible light snowfalls at higher levels, mainly in the Tasmanian highlands, before moving into the Tasman Sea during Thursday. The west coast trough continues to deepen and the high is ridging into the central Bight. Discussion: The trough will continue to move along the New South Wales coast, with showers and storms becoming confined more to the coastal fringe. The area of vorticity along the trough during Wednesday afternoon and evening is likely to continue to develop as the trough moved into the Tasman. The high in the Bight will maintain mainly dry conditions over southern Australia except over exposed coastlines, where early drizzle or light showers are likely in the southeast. The monsoon low will remain quasi stationary during Thursday with local heavy falls continuing mainly over the northeastern half of the Territory and far northwest Queensland. A weak upper ridge moving through southern Western Australia may stabilise conditions temporarily during part of Thursday, but this stabilising influence will move east ahead of the trough, so conditions are likely to become unsettled towards and during the weekend. Rainfall potential |
| 8 | . | Overview: A high in the Tasman Sea ridges along the east coast and directs a moist southeasterly flow over the Queensland coast. A front is approaching southeastern South Australia with a trough and associated windchange bringing substantially cooler conditions to southeastern Australia during Tuesday afternoon. An upper trough is moving along the New South Wales coast and storms have been triggered over the central coast and ranges. The monsoon low remains over the Top End with a trough over the Pilbara, beginning to deepen southward. A high is ridging into the western Bight. Discussion: During Wednesday the trough and front will move into southern New South Wales bringing cooler conditions. Showers, scattered, will accompany the change but storms are not likely to be frequent with this system. Storms are more likely to be associated with the trough over the central New South Wales coast, and these will continue to extend northeast through Wednesday. A cooler southwesterly flow will become established over the southeast of the continent in the wake of the front, bringing only a temporary respite from the high temperatures of Tuesday. The monsoon low over the Top End will continue to bring heavy showers and rain periods to northwestern Queensland and the northern half of the Territory. The low approaching the North Island of New Zealand will bring rain periods to the north, extending southward later, with some heavy falls possible during the next 24 - 36 hours. Rainfall potential |
| 6 | . | Overview: The area of convection north of the Top End has developed into a large monsoon low during the past 24 hours. Heavy falls have been recorded in the area. This area should be monitored for further organisation during the next day or so. The trough lying through Queensland and New South Wales (west of the ranges) is triggering showers and storms in central Queensland where moisture availability is sufficient. Isolated storms on the central New South Wales coast have been triggered during the afternoon. The high in the eastern Bight just west of Tasmania ridges through Bass Strait to another centre in the Tasman Sea and along the east coast. This strengthening ridge has pushed the trough west during Sunday. Scattered showers and storms in the trough moving through Western Australia are likely to remain associated with the trough as it moves towards the east. Discussion: As the high in the Tasman Sea consolidates and strengthens the ridge along the east coast, the trough will remain well to the west of Queensland and New South Wales. Showers along the Queensland coast will be more scattered with a moist onshore flow. The monsoon low will remain in the Top End area, but may begin to edge southwest as it extends upwards through the atmosphere and into the influence of the upper flow. Upper outflow from this low to the southeast may feed tropical moisture into the trough currently over the west of the eastern Australian states, possibly triggering more frequent storms during Monday. The trough through Western Australia will move east and may also be the recipient of tropical moisture in the mid and upper levels, while the high ridging into the western Bight may effectively cradle it as it moves east, leading possibly to a cut off trough near to mid-week as the system approaches the eastern states. Rainfall potential |
| 5 | . | Overview: The ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone) is moving into the Top End region accompanying (or conversely, accompanied by) a weak monsoon surge. The cloud band associated with this surge has been induced south to near 15°S. An area of weak upper divergence has become apparent to the northeast of the Top End near the Gulf of Carpentaria. The west coast trough has deepened and has bisected the baric ridge through the western Bight just to the south of Western Australia, and is moving east through the state. A high in the Bight ridges through Bass Strait and southern Victoria and sends a ridge along the east coast, with a trough extending southward from Queensland along the west of the Dividing Rage through New South Wales being slowed to its west. Scattered storms in Queensland have been triggered within the trough with rain areas becoming frequent over the Top End. Discussion: During Sunday the high in the Bight will move east and will also both strengthen and broaden the ridge along the east coast, subsequently pushing the trough through eastern Australia further inland. A series of fronts embedded in the westerly flow to the south of this high will be steered to the southeast and not affect Australia, with the exception to weak pressure surges and a possible increase in shower activity over southern Tasmania. Showers along the coast of Queensland should become more frequent during Sunday with a moist onshore flow. A high is approaching the western Bight. A trough deepening from the subtropics is likely to affect the northern parts of the North Island of New Zealand during Sunday. Rainfall potential |
| 3 | . | Overview: A front is approaching the southeast of the country with a high of moderate strength located just south of Western Australia. A low over the Kimberley extends a trough just inland of the west coast. Another moisture plume is evident over the Indian Ocean south of Timor and is feeding onto the northwest of the continent. A trough extends along the west of the ranges in Queensland with seasonal storm activity along Cape York. The ITCZ has reformed near to 10°S over Australian longitudes. Discussion: The high in the Bight will ridge east and then send a ridge along the New South Wales coast during Friday. A front will cross the southeast during Thursday night triggering further light showers, mainly in coastal areas and along the ranges. The trough lying west of the ranges in Queensland (and extending south into northern New South Wales) will drift coastward only slowly during Friday, and remain rather inactive in the south. The trough down the west coast will deepen southward and is likely to interact with a mid level disturbance moving in, triggering scattered showers and storms in the west and southwest. Rainfall potential |
| 2 | . | Overview: The low has moved southeast through the eastern Bight and is located tonight southwest of Tasmania. A cloudband along the front extends to the north through eastern Victoria and New South Wales and joins the trough through the Northern Territory and Queensland. A thermal trough moved across the southeast during Wednesday with scattered showers in Victoria on and south of the ranges. Significant moisture has built up over the Top End and Timor Sea during the past few days, with some significant falls during New Years Day. A weak high has budded off in the northern Bight and the west coast trough is reforming. Another front is approaching the western Bight associated with a deep low in the Southern Ocean. Discussion: The high in the Indian Ocean will strengthen, with the high in the Bight weakening. The front in the western Bight will be steered along the southern side of the ridge and will only affect Tasmania and southern Victoria later Thursday. The trough over New South Wales and Queensland will continue to move east with a distinct clearing to the west and much drier conditions becoming established. Showers tending to rain periods will continue over the Top End with seasonal storm activity over Cape York and surrounding areas. The west coast trough will deepen inland of the coast. Rainfall potential |
| 1 | . | Overview: A deep low (990hPa at 4pm) has become slow moving, with a pronounced delineation zone to its west. An upper cold pool (850hPa) and upper trough (300hPa) are part of this system. Moisture from the tropics is still being drawn southward, and is affecting New South Wales and inland Queensland through Tuesday afternoon, after some heavy showers through Victoria in the central parts (mainly along and north of the ranges) during the earlier part of the day. Northern Australia remains under a broad trough of low pressure with the west coast trough beginning to deepen southward into the ridge of high pressure extending through the western Bight (this ridge also extends southeast under the low, which will likely help to slow its movement southeast). The atmosphere over inland Western Australia is currently drier than it has been for weeks. Discussion: The low will move slowly southeast west of Tasmania and weaken. A cooler, somewhat moist but stable airmass will move across the southeast of the country, with only isolated showers along the coasts and ranges. The trough moving through eastern Australia will shear away from the low and front moving southeast and become slow moving during the next day or so. The trough over Western Australia will continue to deepen southward, and the high will ridge through the western Bight, but will weaken slowly, with the main centre remaining to the southwest of Perth. A front will cross the southwestern corner during Wednesday. The upper cold pool in the Coral / Tasman Sea will remain offshore. Rainfall potential |
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