ASWA Victoria - January 2000 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page


Updated 2230AEDT - 26th January 2000 - J ONeill
January 2000 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page ASWA Victoria
Date	Name	Information
26	Jane ONeill	Bayswater: received 5mm to 9am this morning and a further 31mm at some stage between 1pm & 8pm tonight - probably most of it falling within a 1 hour period judging by the rise of Dandenong Creek & the bark distribution down my backyard.
26	Rod Aikman	Bendigo: After being teased by this low pressure system over the past two days, it finally started raining just before 5.00pm this afternoon. Up until 9.45 this evening I have recorded 36 mm, with 25mm falling in just over half-an-hour, with just a few claps of thunder, between 5.30pm and just after 6.
23	Andrew McDonald	Wednesday is looking good for storms around the state. Some models have the trough going through overnight Tuesday which could be a problem but if this happens I might head NE on Tuesday night after work and stay somewhere overnight. It's a bit tough to call yet but I think it could be good with some models giving us 100knts of Jet. Later in the week could also be interesting. GASP has another cold outbreak happening on Saturday or Sunday which could be even stronger than the one we just had. Might be another "spouts" day. FROM THE BOM: - Wednesday Showers developing and possible thunderstorms. Min 16 Max 29 From this you can get an idea of the DP (within 2C or so). Generally the DP will be closish to the overnight min. I would be thinking along the lines of DP of about 13C or 14C for Wednesday. Temp of 29C is not all that high - I would probably look for warmer temps further N. Interestingly enough, the North Central areas are only going for maximum temps of 28-30C which would indicate both NE'ly winds (not as warm as N'ly or NW'ly) and also some cloud (whether it be from developing Cu during the day or mid-level cloud). Going for 32C in the NW and 30C in the NE. Seems like pretty general temps of 30C all round the N. Only going for 25C in the SW at Warrnambool and Ballarat. Might have to wait for a day or so to get a better idea of the positioning of the trough which could determine a target area.
18	Clyve Herbert	Trough advancing into W Vic this arvo is weakening slowly, Generating areas of middle level cloud ahead of and with the trough. Diurnal heating should generate a higher probability of local thunderstorms across central Victoria. Air flow between 850 & 600 is rather dry unfortunately so activity will depend on strong surface heating. Similar conditions can be expected across remaining Victoria with less likelihood of storms in the north. As the trough advances across Vic today & tomorrow the system is showing signs of stalling which should result in more prominent activity in eastern & n Victoria on wed 19th. stronger storm activity is probable in NE vic on Thursday afternoon with some storm activity even poss affecting remaining parts of vic except for the SW, This will depend on the location of the weakening trough as it drifts across vic today & tomorrow. Wind flow following the trough is expected to be light & variable particular inland although it will allow coastal seas breezes in sthn areas. The h will build towards tas on Thurs with a pressure surge pushing into vic late Thursday or Thursday night with a strengthening SW - SE airflow. Things look better in NSW & Qld Thurs & Fri with the pressure surge intensifying the trough in that region. Footnote: 500 - 300 hPa flow was on Monday moving from 200 - 230 deg. on Tues at 9am the flow pattern had changed , the 700-500 moving from 290. and the 300 moving from 270 - 290 This change in the upper flow brings to an end a long period of unusual flow patterns across Victoria between 500 & 300 from directions varying between 180 & 230. Such flow patterns at 500 - 300 are not common for prolonged periods in this part of Australia. This will end a period of about 10 days of 300 hPa flow from between SW & SE.
12	Clyve Herbert	Rotten upper ridge over Vic. should gradually move east slowly. A 30,000’ crowbar would help!!! Front moving through WA should become absorbed in the trough - however the area around the N Kimberley westward & parts northward looks favourable for tropical cyclone generation over the next couple of days. The 300hPa jet should advance east ahead the trough over WA this may provide additional divergence south of 20S which may assist tropical cyclone development in the positions previously described. Better news for Victoria: combined front & trough should advance into Victoria in the latter part of the week between Thursday & Saturday - at this stage it looks like patchy rain & scattered thunderstorms.
9	Jane ONeill	Videoed an F0 tornado in the Paraparap area to the west of Geelong - video submitted to BoM, films being developed, Snappy being fixed, report being written. Keep an eye on the What's New page for the next few weeks for updates.