February 2003 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria

Information

Current Victorian and Australian Conditions

March 2003 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page

Overview: The ITCZ continues to lie across the north of the continent with TC Graham making an appearance during Thursday just off the west coast and deepening subsequently. Scattered showers and storms continued over much of the north, with heaviest falls in the northwest.

A slow moving trough is crossing Victoria with a front approaching the southwest of the state and Tasmania. An active upper trough in the Bight has some significantly cold air in the mid levels associated with it and is approaching the southeast corner. A strong high pressure cell is moving into the western Bight.

Discussion: During Friday, TC Graham will continue to deepen and move across the coast in a southeasterly direction. The trough and front will move into New South Wales, triggering further showers and storms, with some likely to be severe. Behind the front, and associated with the active upper trough and colder midlevel temperatures, light snow on the higher peaks is likely on the Tasmanian high country and later the alpine areas of Victoria and New South Wales, with the latter only receiving a dusting at higher levels.The high in the western Bight will become slow moving.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers and storms in the east of the state Friday, clearing east through the day with the passage of the front. Scattered showers in the south in a southwesterly flow to follow.
NSW: Showers along the north coast.  Scattered showers and storms associated with the trough and front moving through New South Wales. The chance of snow on the peaks later Friday, but most probably during Saturday.  Conditions becoming considerably cooler behind the front, with isolated showers on the ranges to follow.
Queensland:  Scattered showers with isolated storms continuing north of ~25°S.  Some heavy falls. Scattered showers and storms in the southern inland, clearing east.  Coastal showers, especially in the south.
NT: Scattered showers and storms mainly north of the Tennant Creek area, with occasional heavy falls in the northwest.
WA:  Cool in the south with isolated drizzle patches along the south coast in the morning.  TC Graham will cross the coast and bring strong winds and possible flooding in parts of the western Kimberley and the Pilbara.Mainly fine over much of the southern half of the state.
SA: Much cooler conditions during Friday with isolated showers in the south and near the coast.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, mainly in the west and south. Hail and possibly snow over the higher parts of the central tableland, with isolated storms clearing out of the northeast as the front moves east.

Overview: The ITCZ continues to lie south of Townsville, the baric ridge continues to lie near to 40°S, an easterly trough lies through New South Wales and into Victoria and has been moved a little west during Wednesday by the ridge in the Tasman Sea. Most of the cloud over the continent is concentrated north of 25°S.

Isolated storms over the Victorian ranges (both eastern and central) during the afternoon associated with a trough.  A front associated with a deep low (with some very cold air in the middle levels) in the southern Bight is approaching the southeast corner. A strong high to the west of the Bight ridges to the east, with the west coast trough deepening a little along the coast and eroding the ridge to its south.

Discussion: The ITCZ will remain in its currently favoured location during Thursday, continuing to bring showers across the Queensland coast, tropical Queensland, the Top End and the Kimberley.   The low to the northwest of the continent should be watched still as organisation improves somewhat, although there still doesn't look to be a well organised ridge over the area, which may help suppress development.

The easterly trough over Victoria will continue to lag tomorrow until the front moves into the state. Scattered showers and storms, mainly in the south and along the ranges are again likely to develop during the afternoon.  The high will ridge into the eastern Bight  behind the front and direct a cool, moist southwesterly flow across the southeastern part of the country.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers and storms developing mainly about the ranges during the afternoon ahead of a front moving through the state.  Becoming cooler in the southwesterly flow to follow.
NSW: Scattered showers along the north coast.  Isolated showers and storms in the far south associated with the trough and front moving into the southwest and south of the state.  Remaining warm ahead of the front.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms over the tropics with some heavy falls, and also over the central coast.  Isolated showers in the south of the state, particularly the southeast corner.
NT: Widespread showers and storms continuing over the Top End, heaviest and most frequent in the west and the north.  Scattered showers mainly north of 23°S to the Top End.
WA:  Drizzle patches in the south, clearing.  Mainly fine in most of the southern half of the state.  Widespread showers and isolated storms in the Kimberley, northern Interior and Pilbara during Thursday.  Watch the low!!
SA: Isolated showers developing with the passage of a front (mainly in the south), with a cooler southwesterly flow following.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers developing during Thursday and spreading east with the passage of a front. Becoming cooler.

Overview: Little change in the broad synoptic setup over Australia during the past 24 hours..... The ITCZ remains over northern Australia, concentrating most of the shower and storm activity to the north of 25°S. Still the baric ridge remains between 35 and 40°S, with a trough lying through Victoria.  Moisture is again beginning to build up over the southeastern part of the continent. A complex trough is moving through the eastern Tasman / Coral Sea area. The middle levels currently provide strong support for the surface setup.

The west coast trough is slowly beginning to reform along the west coast with a midlevel low near NorthWest Cape. A strong surface high is located to the west of the continent, with a deep low moving through the southern Bight..

Discussion: The lows located along the ITCZ (which will remain near to its current position during Wednesday) will also remain quasi stationary during the outlook period. Widespread showers and scattered storms will once again be concentrated in the tropics with the exception of the northeast New South Wales/southeast Queensland coast, which will likely see further falls in a moist onshore flow.

The ridge from the high in the Tasman Sea will strengthen during Wednesday, with the trough located through Victoria being pressure forced west through the state, and will likely trigger isolated showers and possible storms later Wednesday, mainly along the ranges and in the northeast of the state.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle patches in the south overnight, clearing.  Scattered showers with the chance of a storm near the ranges and in the northeast.
NSW: Scattered showers over the northeast corner, with the chance of a shower or storm in the southeast.  Mainly dry elsewhere and warm.
Queensland: Widespread showers and storms over the tropics, with some heavy falls likely. Falls extending further south along the coast to central areas north of Fraser Island. Isolated showers and storms in the south of the state.
NT: Scattered showers and storms north of the Tennant Creek area, with some heavy falls mainly in the north and Barkly Tableland districts.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms over then northern half of the state. Isoalted showers and drizzle patches along the south coast, clearing.  Becoming warm to hot as the west coast trough redevelops. (Watch the low!!)
SA: Mainly fine throughout.
Tasmania:  Isolated early showers in the west and south, clearing.

Overview: The ITCZ remains across our longitudes between 20 and 25S with the majority of storm activity in Australia within and to the north of this area of low pressure. The ITCZ is mirrored at the 850hPa level.  To the south, the surface baric trough lies between 35 and 40S, with an upper ridge also supporting the surface synoptic setup.

The high in the Tasman Sea ridges broadly towards the east coast. The deep east-southeasterly flow directed onto the northern coast of New South Wales has produced substantial falls along the coast and over the adjacent ranges during Sunday night and Monday morning.  An inactive trough lies across western Victoria. The southern half of the continent remains mainly fine.

Discussion: During Tuesday, the ITCZ will continue to lie across the northern part of the continent, the baric ridge will remain through the Bight and into the Tasman Sea. The low off the northwest coast is likely to deepen and should be monitored for improving organisation during the next 24 hours.

Fronts currently moving through the Bight will slip southeast and affect Tasmania Monday night and during Tuesday with the trough lagging over Victoria.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle patches in the south associated with a pressure surge as a front moves south of Victoria. Isolated showers and the risk of a storm along the ranges associated with a trough, over alpine areas and likely in the west. Remaining warm, but milder in the south.
NSW: The moist onshore flow over the northern coast and ranges will continue through Monday night and Tuesday but with smaller falls likely.  Isolated showers over the central tablelands with the chance of showers over the alpine areas.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms continuing over the tropical north, with showers also along the coast in the moist onshore flow. Some heavy falls are likely over central coastal areas. Clear in the southwest.
NT: Isolated showers and storms, mainly in the west and northern parts of the Top End.  Some heavy falls.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms to continue over the Kimberley, northern Interior and eastern Pilbara, with occasional heavy falls. Mainly fine in the south of the state apart from drizzle patches along the south coast.
SA: Drizzle patches in the southeast during the morning.  Mainly fine elsewhere with the exception of the far east, where there is a risk of isolated showers or storms near to the trough.
Tasmania:  Showers developing in the west and spreading east with the passage of a front through the state before clearing during Tuesday.

Overview: The ITCZ has sagged southward and lies across the north of the continent between 20 and 25S and is marked by the broad band of moisture aligned almost west-east, with a large upper high beginning to stabilise the more southern Australian longitudes to the west of the trough lagging on the east coast. Showers and isolated storms have continued over the northeast of New South Wales and some parts of southern Queensland during Saturday and Sunday. Some heavy falls have led to local flooding with a weak upper flow allowing showers and storms to become almost quasi stationary.

The high in the Tasman Sea has weakened and allowed the ridge along the east coast to weaken also, but the front approaching through the Bight will still be steered to the southeast by the meridional western flank of the high.  A weak inland trough persists through eastern Australia, but remains fairly inactive. To the west again, another high is ridging into the Bight. Mid level troughs are located over the east and the west of the continent.

Discussion: Monday will not see a dramatic shift in the surface synoptic setup with the exception of the trough over northeast New South Wales finally moving off the coast and the weak inland trough drifting a little west. The upper trough will be steered to the northeast by a strengthening upper high ridging to the southeast across most of New South Wales.

Showers and storms will continue over much of the northern half of the continent under the influence of tropical moisture and the southern position of the ITCZ. A series of fronts embedded in the westerly flow to the south of the baric ridge through the Bight and southern Tasman Sea will be steered away from our coastline. The west coast trough will deepen through Monday, but remain near to the coast.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated showers during the afternoon, mainly in the north of the state and along the ranges. A southeasterly flow becoming established south of the ranges.
NSW: Scattered showers and isolated storms continuing in the northeast of the state, with coastal showers over much of the coast with the exception of the far south.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms over much of the state north of ~25S.   Isolated showers along the coast, more frequent in the north with some heavy falls.
NT: Scattered showers and storms over the Top End, more frequent and heavier than to the south of the Tennant Creek area.  Fine in the south.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms over the Kimberley, northern Interior and western Pilbara.  Showers and drizzle over the south coast, clearing later.
SA: Showers and drizzle in the south near the coast, clearing during the day.   Mainly fine in the north, except for the risk of a shower near the northern border.
Tasmania:  Becoming warmer with a northwesterly flow across the state.   Showers developing in the west later and extending east with the approach of a southwesterly wind shift.

Overview: A trough continues to influence the weather of most of the eastern half of the continent. Significant rainfall totals over much of New South Wales and Victoria have not quite had the same effect in Queensland, yet....

The combination of the high in the Tasman Sea and the high in the Bight serve to cradle the surface trough and halt its eastward movement. The midlevel low over western Victoria and the development of a weak upper trough helped to destabilise the conditions over much of eastern Australia during Friday. The cross equatorial moisture flow has weakened slightly, but widespread showers and isolated storms continued in the tropics, mainly over the Top End and in the Gulf country.

The trough over Western Australia has deepened southward and a low is approaching from the Indian Ocean.

Discussion: The surface trough over eastern Australia will both deepen and move northeast as the high in the Bight strengthens and moves east. Showers and storms over eastern Australia should also shift north as the trough moves north and the midlevel low migrates in a northeasterly direction.  Showers will also move into the southern part os Queensland.  The ridge along the east coast will not alter dramatically in its configuration, and thus eastward movement of the systems will remain slow

To the west of the high moving east through the Bight, a low will move into the western Bight to the south of Western Australia, with a front bringing cooler conditions and a return to showers and drizzle patches in the southwest.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers and rain periods contracting to the east later Friday and during Saturday.  Showers and coastal drizzle in the west and south, becoming mainly fine in the northwest through the day.
NSW:  Becoming fine in the southwest.  Showers in the southeast, with some heavy falls. Showers and storms associated with the trough moving north through the north of the state during Saturday.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms continuing in the tropics, with scattered showers developing in the west and the south during Friday night and Saturday, with isolated storms, mainly inland. Isolated showers along the coast.
NT: Scattered showers and storms over the Top End, but less active than during the last couple of days.  Isolated showers and the risk of a storm in the south.
WA:  Seasonal shower activity continuing over the Kimberley and northern Interior. Showers developing in the southwest with the passage of a front. The trough through the west of the state will move eastwards during Saturday, with scattered showers and storms moving east associated with it.
SA: Showers and scattered storms are likely over the north and northeast of the state contracting east through Saturday. Some substantial falls remain likely. A southeasterly flow becoming established over the south of the state with isolated showers and drizzle along the coast, clearing as the high moves east.
Tasmania:  Showers tending to rain in the north with showers in the east, mainly to the northeast.

Overview: The high now extends from southwest of Tasmania into the Tasman Sea and effectively forms a ridge along the New South Wales coast. A further ridge extends along the Queensland coast into the tropics. To their west, a complex trough influences most of the country. Upper level flow is meridional across our longitudes. A weak high sandwiched between 2 troughs and lying in the western Bight is also accompanied by cooler air at the 850hPa level. The area of general low pressure that has been moving steadily (but very slowly) across the Indian Ocean for the past week is approaching the west in the form of an active low near to 38S.

Strong cross equatorial moisture advection continues to feed into the trough lying through the centre of the continent - this moisture is then being advected further to the southeast. Most storms during Thursday have been in the northern half of the continent north of 32S where there has been more available moisture and heating.

Discussion: The high in the Tasman Sea will move east and strengthen, in turn strengthening the ridge along the east coast and slowing / halting the eastward movement of the trough moving through eastern Australia.  In turn, the trough will deepen with improved upper support - ie: the likely deepening of the midlevel trough (possibly to a closed circulation), with falls to be concentrated in New South Wales and Victoria with the northern part of Tasmania also influenced by this setup. A moist northeasterly flow over southern Queensland down to the southeast corner may lead to some good falls near the coast. Watch for heavy falls, mainly localised with some substantial totals over areas that have been dry for a considerable time. The Territory will continue to come under the influence of the cross equatorial flow and the monsoon low, with widespread falls to continue.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers with some patchy rain, mainly in the west and north, and more likely to be showers rather than rain periods south of the ranges, but with some heavy falls possible here also.  The risk of a storm along the ranges and in the northeast.  Clearing to isolated showers from the west through Friday and Saturday.
NSW:  Widespread showers, tending to rain periods at times with the greatest extent in the south of the state.  Isolated storms (embedded) remain likely over the northern inland.  Some showers on the coast in the onshore flow may also produce some good totals.
Queensland: Showers and storms continuing across the tropics with some heavy falls, mainly in the northwest. Cloud increasing in the south and southwest with the chance of a storm.  Isolated coastal showers along the east coast.
NT: Widespread showers, tending to rain periods with some further substantial falls. Scattered storms, mainly over the Top End.
WA:  Not a great deal of change in the setup from yesterday, with the exception of drizzle and showers in the southwest.  Scattered showers and storms associated with the trough moving east through the southern part of the state.
SA: Showers contracting east with scattered heavy falls and isolated storms continuing in the north and northeast nearer to the continued tropical infeed. Drizzle patches in the southeast clearing.
Tasmania:  Showers tending to rain over the north of the state under the influence of the trough lying through eastern Australia, deepening to include parts of Tasmania.  Some heavy falls are possible.  Mainly fine in the south.

Overview: The high in the Bight is edging slowly east-northeast and the ridge through Bass Strait area is becoming more pronounced while the trough lying through New South Wales is deepening towards northeast Victoria decreasing overall pressures, particularly inland over the southeast of the continent. Storms and some showers over the northeast of New South Wales with a moist onshore flow. Most of the continent remains under the influence of the broad trough, with strong cross equatorial infeed of moisture into central Australia, (without the influence of an upper ridge as pronounced as the last to dampen things down to the same extent this time) and is leading to widespread and occasionally substantial falls across areas which have been very dry for a while. The monsoon low is no longer warm cored.

Widespread showers and storms over northwestern Queensland, the Territory, South Australia are associated with this broad trough. The next active upper trough is approaching the southwest of the continent behind a weak upper disturbance travelling through with the surface trough into South Australia.

Discussion: The high will move east and ridge strongly to the northeast in the eastern Tasman Sea, setting up a strong northeasterly flow over New South Wales and Victoria. The trough over the inland, weak as it is, will edge slightly west during Thursday, while the trough through central Australia will continue to move east...with widespread patchy rain and isolated embedded storms and some substantial falls. Meanwhile, the northeast of New South Wales and southeast Queensland will remain showery in the persistent northeasterly flow (with occasional storms).

A weak high is approaching the western Bight and will remain sandwiched between troughs, aligned generally north-south, bringing a brief clearing phase ahead of the next trough. Colder 850hPa temperatures are reaching further north with this series of upper troughs moving through our longitudes......

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Northeasterly winds becoming general.   Increasing cloud, lowering in level with patchy rain extending from the west and northwest. Some scattered substantial falls are possible in the west of the state.
NSW:  Isolated showers continuing in the northeast, with scattered showers and storms over the north and northwest. Showers developing also in the south and becoming general.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms over the tropics with some heavy falls mainly over the northwest. Scattered showers and isolated storms developing in the southwest with the approach of the trough. Only isolated showers along the Coral Sea coast, mainly in the north and southeast.
NT: Widespread showers with isolated storms through the Territory with heaviest falls in the north.
WA:  Scattered showers and isolated storms clearing the east of the state on Thursday. A second trough through the southern part of the state will likely remain near the Gascoyne and west of the Goldfields, showers in the southwest Wednesday night.
SA: Widespread showers, tending to rain periods with some heavy falls across most of the state.  Isolated embedded storms, mainly in the north of the state.
Tasmania:  Mainly fine.  Cool conditions continuing after a cold night.

Overview: The High in the Bight has moved virtually nowhere during the past 24 hours!! although weakening slightly, the ridge to its northeast is slipping a little way to the south of the continent.  A series of fronts has ridden up the southeastern flank of the high and are crossing the Tasman Sea with a trough extending across eastern Australia into the broad trough across cental Australia.

Much of the western half of the continent remains under the influence of a broad trough, with the monsoon low still exhibiting warm core features, albeit weaker than 24 hours ago. A broad cross equatorial flow continues to advect moisture onto the continent. Heavy falls across the Territory and Western Australia are leading to rapidly rising rivers.

An active upper trough is approaching the southwest with the broad area of lower pressure over the Indian Ocean continuing to drift east.

Discussion: During Wednesday, the high in the Bight looks to begin moving slowly in a generally easterly direction, but with the ridge to the northeast remaining south of the continent with a broad trough deepening through New South Wales towards the southeast corner. The flow across the New South Wales coast will become more easterly. A weaker ridge will remain along the Queensland coast with a trough to its west. 

The trough over the western part of Australia will move eastwards during Wednesday and later as an active upper trough moves through and interacts with it. Further to the west, another active upper trough is approaching our longitudes, and the upper flow is tending more meridional. Cold air in the midlevels is able to reach further north than during the past few months (as far north as near to 35°S), heralding the beginning of a change to the atmospheric setup over our longitudes.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Increasing cloud in the northwest with isolated showers developing.  Mainly fine elsewhere, mild in the south, warmer in the north.  Isolated morning fogs.
NSW:  Scattered showers and storms across the north and western parts of the state associated with the trough. Isolated showers on the coast.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms over the tropics, mainly in the northwest and Gulf Country.  Scattered showers and storms associated with the trough moving east from the Territory and also in the south associated with the trough through northern New south Wales.  Isolated coastal showers.
NT: Widespread showers and storms continuing through most of the Territory, heavier in the north, and more scattered in the south.  Flooding in some rivers is becoming more likely as weekly rainfall totals in the Top End approach the 3-400mm mark.
WA:  Isolated showers and storms east of the trough moving through the south of the state.  Widespread showers, with some storms and some heavy falls leading to river rises in the northern Interior and the Kimberley.
SA: Continuing showers and isolated storms, mainly in the west and north of the state. Some heavy falls associated with slow moving storms are possible, mainly in central and northern districts.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, mainly in the south, clearing.  Cool conditions throughout.

The rain/storm event from Thursday on is now starting to take shape and I can now gauge a better idea of how it will pan out. At this stage it looks like there will not be as much moisture draw into Victoria on Thursday and Friday as first thought. It looks like there will be some rain, with possible storm in the west on Friday as the leading cloud band clears and the trough is a bit closer. It looks like the NW of the state will fare the best from the initial rain on Thursday an Friday, though the spectacular falls that the models predicted a few days ago look unlikely. I feel 10mm will be a good general fall. Central areas and Gippsland look like missing out on most of the initial rain.

Saturday now looks like the day that thinks will get interesting over Vic. It looks possible that the rainband will clear and that a moist and reasonably unstable atmosphere will follow. This increases the chances of some storms. 

Overview: The strong high remains in the southern Bight and ridges to the northeast and through the Bass Strait area. A front is moving along the east coast triggering showers while the high near New Zealand maintains a ridge along the Queensland coast. The tropical low (warm cored), which currently is west of  the Top End and looking more organised is triggering bands of showers across northwestern Australia while the surface trough coupled with the baroclinic area ahead of the upper trough over Western Australia is generating showers and storms and some heavy falls.

Discussion: During Monday, the high in the Bight will remain quasi-stationary and hold its position between 45 and 50°S while continuing to ridge to the northeast and the Bass Strait / Tasmania area. There will not be a great deal of change in the surface synoptic pattern during today. Showers and storms will continue to be associated with the broad and complex trough over the western part of the continent, as well as with the trough extension of the front moving along the east coast.

As the high in the Bight slips southward as passes below Tasmania midweek, the setup will become more favourable for a deep easterly flow over the eastern states to become established....

Hint: watch the Coral Sea over the next week..... and keep an eye on the tropical low in the northwest.....

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cloud increasing in the northwest of the state, but remaining dry during Tuesday.  Cloudy conditions south of the ranges in a southeasterly flow.  Mild to warm in the north.
NSW:  Showers along much of the coast in a southeast-northeasterly onshore flow.  Showers and storms associated with the trough moving through the northern part of the state are likely, moreso during the afternoon.
Queensland: Showers and storms over the Gulf Country and Cape York, more frequent and with heavier falls in the northwest near the tropical low.  Scattered showers and the chance of a storm in the southwest.
NT: Widespread showers and storms over much of the Territory with the heaviest falls in the north. Local flooding is likely.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms in the Kimberley and northern Interior with showers and storms in the south of the state moving east with the progression of the surface trough.
SA: Widespread showers and storms over the state, mainly in the north and west associated with tropical moisture feeding in from the north coupled with the approaching trough in the west.
Tasmania:  Cool to cold conditions with scattered showers, mainly in the west and the south.

Overview: The high in the Bight remains slow moving and extends a ridge along the western side of the broad trough over Western Australia, and another towards the Tasman Sea. The trough lying from the low in the west through the southeast of the continent is triggering scattered showers and isolated storms along its length, and activity is also occurring on the northeastern side of the trough. The high over New Zealand extends a weakening ridge along the Queensland coast with a weak trough lying through the inland to the northwest of that state.

The tropical low southwest of Darwin (which is now warm cored) continues to lurk in the Kimberley area, showing little sign of movement, but its presence for such an extended period is unusual and should be monitored.

Discussion:    The slow moving high in the Bight will stay near to 46°S and will maintain a ridge to the west of this trough over the western part of the continent, while also ridge northeast to the Tasmania / Bass Strait region. The trough, an extension of the front moving along the east coast, will continue to trigger storms on the adjacent coast and extending inland to the ranges.

The development of a cyclone off the northwest coast should not be ruled out during the week if the warm cored low currently over the Kimberley moves off the coast. The extensive trough over Western Australia will remain quasi stationary during Monday and the first of the lows resident in the Indian Ocean near to 20°S will drift towards the west coast. The upper trough will cross the southwest corner of the continent bringing moisture and further destabilising   conditions.

Colder air being driven up from the Southern Ocean may bring brief light snow to the Tasmanian highlands.

Hint: watch the Coral Sea over the next week.....

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Showers and drizzle on and south of the ranges, mainly fine in much of the north, with isolated showers clearing out of the northeast during Monday.
NSW:  Continuing warm to hot ahead of the trough and front moving through the state to the northeast.  Isolated showers and storms contracting to the northeast, becoming fine and cooler in the south and southwest.
Queensland: Seasonal shower and storms activity continuing over Cape York, with isolated showers and storms in the west and southwest.  Coastal showers are likely, mainly to the north.
NT: Scattered showers and storms, primarily in the northwest of the Top End with some heavy falls likely.  Isolated showers and storms in the southern half of the Territory.
WA:  The broad trough over much of the state, combining with the upper trough will trigger widespread showers (with some good falls) and isolated storms.  The low over the Kimberley will remain in the area, but drift slowly southwest along the coast (probably remaining inland) with widespread shower and storms.
SA: Scattered showers and isolated storms across much of the state.
Tasmania:  Southwesterly winds, cooler with scattered showers throughout with light snow over the Highlands during Monday am. Showers clearing in the east.

Overview: The high in the Bight continues to be near to 45°S with a ridge extending east towards the Tasman Sea. The high in the central Tasman extends a ridge along the Queensland coast into the tropics with the broad trough over the continent captured to its west. A front is crossing Tasmania with a slight pressure wobble and temporary windchange for the southern part of Victoria also.

The tropical low over the northwest, continues to drift further to the southwest (over land) while continuing its develop / decay cycle.  Falls have been light and scattered. Cloud coming onto the southern part of the west coast of Western Australia is responding to a deepening midlevel trough.

Discussion:  During Sunday, the high over the Tasman will move towards New Zealand, while maintaining the ridge along the Queensland coast.  The front crossing the southeast will shear away to the east without dragging the trough eastward, which will remain from far eastern Victoria through New South Wales to the trough over Western Australia. The high in the Bight will remain rather strong and also hold its position further south than the baric ridge during the past few weeks, which will help set eastern Australia up for further moisture infeed during the next few days.

The first of a series of low pressure systems currently over the central Indian Ocean will approach the west coast later Sunday / early Monday as the flagship for a broad area of lower pressure (with 2 TC's, both moving southeast!).

Hint: watch the Coral Sea over the next week.....

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A southeasterly flow south of the ranges, shifting more to the southwest, with drizzle patches and light showers. Showers in the west, extending east, especially north of the ranges, with a front passing to the south of the state, bringing cooler conditions south of the ranges. Patchy rain is possible in some areas.
NSW:  Warm to hot conditions northeast of the trough running through the state from the northwest to the southeast.  Showers and storms along the trough, with some heavy falls likely with slow moving storms.
Queensland: Showers and storms continuing over the Cape York Peninsula, in the northwest of the state, with some heavy falls likely, and through the trough in the southeast.
NT: Scattered showers and storms over much of the Territory with some heavy falls likely mainly over the Top End.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms in the Kimberley (with heavy falls likely), and associated with the trough through the western part of the state. Showers along the southern coast are likely.
SA: Scattered showers and isolated storms contracting to the north of the state during Sunday.  Isolated showers in the south, mainly the southeast, in a more southeasterly flow.
Tasmania:  Widespread showers, turning cooler with the passage of a front.

Overview: The high in the Tasman extends a ridge along the east coast, once again halting the easterly movement of troughs over eastern Australia.  Much, if not most, of Australia comes under the influence of a broad trough with cross equatorial infeed continuing to build up the moisture bank, with broad rain areas across the Territory and Queensland.  

The high entering the western Bight has dropped further south and will allow some of the moisture to also reach areas further south over the next few days, while ridging northward around the western side of the trough and cradling it. Cloud to the south is responding to a front crossing the southern Bight. To the west of our longitudes, a family of low pressure systems is moving across the Indian Ocean, with 2 TC's within it.

**In Victoria, there has been the beginning of a seasonal shift during the past 48 hours and the sky is taking on an autumnal look.**

Discussion:  During Saturday, the high in the Tasman will strengthen as will the ridge along the east coast. Above this, high an upper trough will continue to develop, with a strengthening southwesterly jet on its western side. The broad trough covering much of the continent will deepen and extend as far to the southeast as northeastern Victoria, with the potential of scattered showers and storms throughout much of the country mainly north of the Murray River.

The tropical low that has moved southwest of Darwin will continue its diurnal cycle of development and decay, and continue a slow drift along the coast. Cloud crossing the west coast responding to a strengthening upper jet and a deepening midlevel trough over the south of Western Australia will bring showers later Saturday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Cloud increasing from the west with showers developing during the afternoon.  Scattered showers and isolated storms in the northeast associated with a deepening trough. Morning cloud with isolated drizzle patches in the south will clear to a mainly fine day.
NSW:  Isolated showers over the northeast corner.  Scattered showers and storms associated through the trough extending through much of the state from the northwest to southeast. Northerly winds increasing temperatures on the northeastern side of this trough.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms in the northwest, isolated activity over Cape York, further isolated activity in the southern extent of the trough lying through the state. Patchy rain developing in the west with mainly fine conditions northeast of the trough.
NT: Scattered showers and storms over much of the Territory with some locally heavy falls mainly in the Top Ens and Barkly tableland areas.
WA:  Showers and storms across the Kimberley and northern Interior with some locally heavy falls likely. Isolated showers and storms in the south of the state responding to the deepening of the midlevel trough.
SA: Scattered showers and storms, initially over the northern part of the state, and extending further south through Saturday. Clearing to the west.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers in the west and south, extending throughout later Saturday and into Sunday.

Overview: The extension of the front is moving along the New South Wales coast with only a change in pressure and wind direction. An upper trough over southeastern Queensland and northern New South Wales has helped destabilise conditions during Thursday afternoon with showers and storms in the area. Convergence over Cape York coupled with a moist onshore flow sees further storms along the spine of the Cape, with widespread showers and storms aligned along the trough running southeast from the Territory through Queensland.

The monsoon low west of Darwin is triggering widespread showers with some heavy falls and tending to rain periods, and has drifted around the area all day. TC Fiona is weakening. The broad trough through inland Western Australia is mirrored by an upper trough, with storms in the southeast of the state. A weak ridge of high pressure lies in the Bight.

Discussion:  The trough through the Territory into Queensland will likely extend through New South Wales during Friday, dipping down to the Victorian border. The ridge of high pressure in the Bight will squeeze through Bass Strait and into the Tasman Sea during Friday, setting up a ridge along the east coast which will strengthen, and with the western part of the ridge extending north to near 20°S west of the Western Australian coast. The low west of Darwin will organise better during Friday with substantial falls possible as it drifts west-southwest along the coast - keep watching this...

TC Fiona will weaken further and drift towards our longitudes. An upper trough moving southwest of the SW Land Division is drawing in much sub-tropical moisture, while the trough over inland Western Australia will draw some moisture from the northern tropics.....the moisture field over southern Australia will continue to increase during the next day or so. Some moisture is also likely to be caught up in the extension of the trough in New South Wales.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle patches along the coast with isolated fogs south of the ranges.  Becoming warmer inland. Chance (risk) of a storm over the alpine areas. High cloud increasing in the west later.
NSW:  Winds shifting from southeasterly through more northeast during Friday across much of the state.  Scattered showers and storms near to and east of the trough and along the central to northern coasts, mainly north of the Hunter.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms continuing over the northern tropics. Isolated showers and storms associated with the trough lying through the inland to the south and southeast.
NT: Widespread showers and storms over much of the Territory, more frequent over the western half, and isolated in the south.
WA:  Showers and storms over the eastern half of the state, with drizzle along the southern coast clearing Friday morning. Increasing cloud along the west coast, but remaining mainly dry.
SA: Drizzle patches in the south. Cloud increasing in the west with isolated showers and storms developing during Friday in the far west, and also in the northern border regions.  Becoming warmer inland as the wind shifts more northeast.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers in the west and south, mainly fine elsewhere.

Overview: The trough extending from the Territory through New South Wales, has slid east into the southeast corner, with a front moving through the Bight towards the southeast of the continent. The high in the Tasman Sea, although weak, extends a broad ridge to the eastern Australian coast, and has halted the eastward progression of the southern portion of the trough. Convergence and a moist onshore flow over Cape York is triggering widespread storm activity.

An interesting area of convection has developed in the Timor Sea near to Darwin during Wednesday with tropical moisture continuing to feed onto the continent from areas to the north. The west coast trough has moved east and lies broadly across the southern part of Western Australia, with the trough extending to the front moving through the eastern Bight. An upper trough is also present in the area.  TC Fiona is near to 20°S in the Indian Ocean and is moving poleward, with another low moving east towards our longitudes.

Discussion:  The front will pass to the south of the continent, affecting Tasmania during Wednesday night and shifting winds over southern Victoria to the southwest temporarily from the southeasterly flow we have experienced during the past few days. The trough lying through New South Wales, having had its eastward movement stalled by the high, will move northeast through the state, trailed by the front that will move around the southeast corner from Bass Strait and into the Tasman Sea.

Showers and storms are likely to continue over the Queensland tropics as the moist onshore flow is maintained. The trough over the Top End will deepen through Thursday and its signature should be watched - widespread falls are likely from this sytem which will be slow moving to nowhere. The trough over Western Australia will remain general. The high ridging into the western Bight will move into the central Bight during Thursday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Scattered showers in the northwest with the introduction of the trough into the area. A front passing through Bass Strait during Wednesday night will cause a pressure wobble south of the ranges and the chance of drizzle, or light fog inland. Remaining mainly fine in the north, but with the chance of a storm in the northeast or far east during the afternoon.
NSW:  The trough will preceded the front through New South Wales, with the front affecting mainly coastal parts and the trough the inland. Showers in the southwest during Wednesday night are likely to extend through to the southern and central coasts during Thursday. Warm ahead of the change with scattered showers and storms along the ranges, mainly in the south. Isoalted showers and storms in the northeast.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storm over the northeastern tropics will extend southward through the trough during Thursday with the assistance of a continuation of the moist onshore flow. Convective activity will be more frequent to the north. Fine in the southwest of the state.
NT: Widespread heavy falls over the Top End during the next few days, tending to move westward. Isolated storms in the southern part of the Territory. moving west.
WA:  Scattered storms over the Kimberley with widespread heavy falls developing as the low moves west.  Isoalted showers and storms continuing through the inland east of the Gascoyne. Drizzle over the far southwest, clearing.
SA: Isolated showers and storms mainly in the west nearer to the trough.   Early drizzle over the southeast corner, clearing.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers over the west and south, becoming mainly fine throughout later Thursday.

Overview: The high in the Tasman extends a weak but broad ridge along the east Australian coast and is linked to a ridge of high pressure in the Bight. The area of low pressure off the coast near Brisbane continues to lurk in the area, kept near the coast by the ridge of high pressure. Showers and storms have been widespread over much of Queensland and associated with the trough moving through New South Wales, as well as embedded within the rather interesting trough currently deepening (at all atmospheric levels) over Western Australia.

Northern Australia remains under the influence of a broad trough of low pressure with much moisture, mainly in northern coastal regions. The west coast trough (surface) has deepened southward through Tuesday , and   a weak upper trough has developed as it has moved into the same area.  A deep low is located in the southern Bight. The high ridging into the western Bight is ridging south of the trough and looks to cut it off.

Discussion:  The area of low pressure off the east coast near Brisbane will remain quasi stationary through Wednesday, but there is weakening upper support for this as an upper ridge moves into the area. Showers and storms are likely to continue in the Queensland tropics with a moist onshore flow and already abundant moisture making some heavy falls possible.

A deep low in the southern Bight extends a front towards the continent but this is unlikely to affect much further than Tasmania, with only a weak pressure 'wobble' and a temporary windshift over southern Victoria. The high in the Bight will ridge more strongly to the south of the trough over Western Australia and cut it off, cradling it as well as slowing its eastward movement. This trough looks to become broader and slow moving and continues to draw moisture in from the Indian Ocean and tropical Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Chance of drizzle or fog in the south, mainly Gippsland, clearing.  Cloud increasing in the northwest of the state.   A weak pressure 'wobble' in the south as a front passes east across Tasmania. The risk of a storm in the far east or northeast.  Warm to hot conditions.
NSW:  Isolated showers and storms associated with the inland trough, mainly in the east and along the divide, but with isolated storms possible in the northwest, and also in the far southeast.
Queensland: Isolated showers and storms, mainly in the tropics, extending further south during the afternoon.
NT: Scattered showers and storms over the Top End, more frequent and with heavier falls likely in the north.  Isolated showers and storms developing in the western parts of the Territory.
WA:  Isolated showers and storms in the Goldfields and Eucla, with the chance also of storms to the west of the trough.  Isolated storms over the Kimberley and northern Interior.
SA: Drizzle patches in the southeast clearing. Isolated showers and storms in the north, extending southward during Thursday.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers in the west, with isolated falls in the east later with the passage of a front.

Overview: A weakish high is located in the central Bight, ridging through Bass Strait and joining up with the high near New Zealand. A deepening area of lower pressure is evident off the east coast near Brisbane. The trough through New South Wales (which can be traced to the front moving through the Tasman Sea) , triggered widespread storms from Nowra through the Sydney basin and into the northwest of the state. Storms were also triggered along the trough to the west of the ranges over Queensland.

To the west of the Bight high, the west coast trough has deepened southward and is bisecting the baric ridge extending east from the Indian Ocean.  A broad trough of low pressure continues to inhabit the northern part of the continent. TC Fiona continues to move southwest away from our longitudes.

Discussion:  The low at the southern extension of the trough through eastern Queensland and off the coast will drift eastward over the northern Tasman Sea during Tuesday. The baric ridge will continue to lie along the 40°S parallel.  The trough over Western Australia will deepen but remain quasi stationary, continuing to trigger scattered showers and isolated storms along its length. TC Fiona has moved away from our longitudes.

A series of fronts will cross the southern Bight during the next few days, but only Tasmania is likely to be directly affected, with slightly undulating surface pressures being experienced through the southern states, but with little overall pressure shift.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches likely on and south of the ranges, with conditions clearing to mainly fine throughout, becoming warmer in the north.  Isoalted showers and storms are likely along the ranges, particularly in the far east and along the northeastern spine.
NSW:  Widespread showers and scattered storms will continue to be triggered by the trough running NW-SE through the state.  Showers along the central and northern coasts will continue and become more frequent as the pressure falls over the area, and the onshore flow becomes established. Dry in the west and southwest.
Queensland: Showers and storms associated with the trough contracting east through Monday evening. Scattered showers and storms along much of the coast, with activity extending inland to the hinterland during Tuesday.
NT: Scattered showers and storms mainly along the northern coast and developing in the west of the Territory during Tuesday afternoon.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms associated with the trough through the Pilbara, Gascoyne and Goldfields, extending into the southwest corner.  Seasonal storm activity continuing in the tropics.
SA: Isoalted drizzle in the southeast corner Tuesday morning, mainly fine elsewhere, with hot conditions in the north.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, then becoming mainly fine throughout.

Overview: The trough continues to lie from the far east of Victoria to Queensland and once again triggered scattered storms along its length. A midlevel  low over southern Queensland makes the trough more complex, while a weak trough is developing off the northern New South Wales coast. A significant amount of low level moisture is feeding into this trough. A front crossing Tasmania has been kept south by the baric ridge which continues to maintain its presence along the 40°S parallel. Northern Australia remains under the influence of a broad trough and the trough has deepened along the west coast. 

A weak ridge of high pressure is ridging into the Bight. TC Fiona continues to move in a southwesterly direction with some outflow moving towards the coast of Western Australia. An upper trough is approaching from the southwest.

Discussion:  The trough will continue to lie through eastern Australia with its southern portion being moved a little east with as a front passes to the south, but then drifting further west once again. The trough off the east coast may deepen during Monday.  Northern Australia will remain under the influence of the broad low pressure trough with shower and storms activity remaining mainly coastal through Monday. Showers along the Queensland coast will continue.

The west coast trough will deepen and remain quasi stationary for the next day or so and not begin to move east until near midweek, while fronts to the south will only cause a brief pressure change as the pass beneath the continent to the south of the baric ridge.  TC Fiona will continue to move away from Australian longitudes.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches south of the ranges, mainly morning and night.  Mainly fine elsewhere with the chance of a storm in the east and northeastern areas of the state nearer to the trough.
NSW: Scattered showers and storms, with some possibly severe, with heavy falls, mainly over the central, southern  and eastern parts of the state. Showers particularly over the northeast coast. Fine in the west.
Queensland: Scattered showers, tending to rain periods, and storms over much of the state with the exception of the southwestern corner.
NT: Isolated showers and storms, mainly about the northern coast.
WA:  Scattered showers and storms associated with the trough with activity mainly in the Pilbara, southwest, Gascoyne and western Goldfields.  Seasonal storm activity over the Kimberley, mainly about the coast.
SA: Isolated drizzle along the exposed coasts, remaining mainly fine elsewhere with the risk of an isolated storm in the north or northeast of the state.
Tasmania:  Scattered showers, mainly in the west and south, remaining cool with a southwesterly flow across the state.

Overview: The front has sheared away from the trough over eastern Australia leaving the trough lingering through the eastern states with widespread showers and storms (with some very heavy falls leading to localised sheet runoff and water across roads that have not seen rain for some time) in New South Wales and western Queensland. This trough now extends the entire length of the continent from tropical Queensland to the southeast corner of New South Wales. The baric ridge is maintaining itself along 40S, with fronts tending to affect the areas to the south of the ridge.

The trough continues to deepen down the west coast, with a weak ridge of high pressure extending to the eastern Bight from the Indian Ocean.

Discussion:  During Sunday the trough over eastern Australia will drift westward, with scattered showers and storms associated with it once again - and upper trough will increase the instability over the areas affected by the southern part of the trough. Some locally heavy falls are again likely. The high in the Tasman will continue to ridge along the east coast, but this will remain relatively weak.

There will be little broad scale synoptic change through Sunday across the Australian longitudes. TC Fiona will continue lurking about and not moving very far at all in the Indian Ocean.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches are again likely south of the ranges in a southeasterly flow. In the east and north of the state, the trough extending south from New South Wales and a more northeasterly flow may trigger isolated showers and storms particularly in the northeast.
NSW: The trough extending through the state will drift westward through Saturday night and into Sunday, and there will be likely a repeat of Saturday's widespread showers and storms, but over different areas, with the southern parts of the state being more likely to be affected. Scattered showers and isolated storms over most areas, but more likely near to and east of the the trough axis.  Warm to hot inland. A generally northeasterly flow.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms, particularly near to the trough, but general through the state with the exception of the southwest corner, which will remain fine. Coastal showers in a moist northeast-southeasterly onshore flow.
NT: Isolated showers and storms, mainly along the Top End coast and near to a convergence line running through the Tennant Creek area.  Mainly fine inland excepting this area.
WA: Seasonal storm activity over the Kimberley. Scattered showers and storms through much of the Pilbara as well as particularly parts of the southwest, the Gascoyne and the Goldfields associated with the deepening trough. Hot to very hot in most areas.
SA: Isolated showers with the chance of a storm in the far west. Mainly fine throughout with a generally southeasterly flow.
Tasmania: Isolated showers and drizzle patches likely, mainly in the northeast Saturday night and the south and west later Sunday.  Remaining cool to mild.

Overview: The trough lying through New South Wales has moved west during the day and widespread showers and storms have been associated with the area to the east of the trough axis, extending as far south as the Victorian alpine region. The baric ridge continues to lie near to 40S with a front passing through the eastern Bight to the south of the trough. The high near New Zealand continues to extend a strong and broad ridge across the Tasman to the east coast, and has prevented the eastward movement of the trough during Friday.

The north of the continent remains under the influence of a broad trough of low pressure, and TC Fiona at 970hPa remains slow moving over the northern Indian Ocean. A stronger high is ridging into the western Bight and the west coast trough is continuing to deepen, but only slowly.

Discussion:  During Saturday, the cold front moving across Victoria and close to Tasmania may trigger showers along the Victorian coast, with the trough moving northeast through New South Wales. The high will ridge into the Bight proper and will direct a mild southeasterly flow across the southeast, with conditions behind the trough becoming milder. As well as moving northeast, the trough is likely to re-extend further north. The high near New Zealand will continue to ridge along the Queensland coast, with the ridge strengthening through Saturday.

A heat low over northwest Western Australia along with the deepening west coast trough will likely destabilise conditions as further tropical moisture is brought down from the northwest, with isolated showers and storms through parts of the Gascoyne and Goldfields.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Drizzle patches and isolated light showers south of the ranges, mainly along the coast.  Isolated showers and storms are possible along the ranges and in the northeastern high country as the trough continues to dip into Victoria.
NSW: Scattered showers and storms associated with the trough moving through southern and inland New South Wales and into the central coast during Saturday. Showers in the north and northeast from a broad cloudband that has sagged southward from the trough in Queensland. Fine and milder in the southwest.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms through much of the state inland of the east coast. Seasonal storm activity over the northern Cape York. Fine in the southwest.
NT: Isolated showers and storms over the Top End.  Isolated showers developing in the Barkly Tableland region and along the eastern border in the south.
WA: Widespread scattered showers and isolated storms over much of the state, with seasonal storm activity continuing over the Kimberley. Convective activity in a band from the northwest through to the Goldfields area.
SA: Isolated showers or drizzle patches along the coast in a generally southeasterly flow.  Becoming warmer later in the weekend, with isolated showers and the risk of a storm developing in the north
Tasmania: Scattered showers associated with the passage of the front, then clearing.

Overview: The baric ridge lies along 40°S from New Zealand to west of the the Australian longitudes, with the trough through New South Wales and into Victoria stalled to the west of a ridge of high pressure, which extends all the way to the tropics. The westerly flow with embedded fronts lies to the south of the baric ridge.

The rain depression (formerly known as TC Beni) lies over inland Queensland and some substantial falls continue to be triggered. Moisture levels in the lower and middle levels have increased with the infeed of moisture from the Coral Sea. This moisture field has been expanding southwestward during Thursday. Northern Australia remains under a broad trough and TC Fiona (still 985hPa at 4pm) lies over the Indian Ocean. The west coast trough has deepened slowly inland of the coast.

Discussion:  The baric ridge looks likely to maintain both its position and intensity throughout Friday, continuing to cradle the ridge lying through southeastern Australia.  Moisture from the Queensland trough will continue to expand in a generally southerly direction, while also feeding steadily into this trough in the southeast, while the development of an upper trough over the southeast may serve to destabilise conditions during Friday.

Outflow from TC Fiona does not show strong signs of future organisation, and the infeed of moisture from the Indian Ocean should not be relied upon. The west coast trough will remain inland of the coast, with fronts embedded in the westerly flow to the south of the baric ridge are likely to only effect the far southwest of Western Australia Tasmania as they move east during Thursday night and Friday.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Remaining cool to mild overnight and mild through Friday in the south with a generally southeasterly flow. Warm to hot inland with a variable flow across the state under the influence of the surface trough, which is likely to drift west through Friday. Isolated showers and storms are a chance mainly later Friday, and moisture infeed through the trough should increase the risk of precipitation (although only light) nearer to the trough axis.
NSW: Isolated showers in the northeast, with isolated showers and storms associated with the trough lying through the inland and southeast. Hot. Some showers are likely to develop in the northern inland as the trough in Queensland extends slightly south.
Queensland: Widespread showers, tending to rain periods in areas under the influence of the trough (ie: much of inland and central and northern coastal Queensland) with scattered showers and storms continuing mainly west of the ranges. Falls extending south.
NT: Showers and storms, mainly during the latter part of the day over the Top End, becoming isolated to the south
WA: Seasonal storm activity to continue over the Kimberley, with scattered showers and isolated storms under the influence of the trough inland through the Pilbara and Gascoyne regions, extending east to the Goldfields.
SA: Isolated showers and storms possible in the west and north of the state near to moisture feeding in from the west as well as the tropics.
Tasmania: Showers developing in the west and south later Friday after a warmer period. Risk of a storm.

Overview: The high in the Tasman Sea has maintained a substantial ridge onto the east coast.   The trough and front moving through Victoria and Tasmania during Wednesday slowed as it moved east and triggered occasional heavy falls and isolated storms, mainly over parts of Victoria. A general northeasterly flow became established across southeastern Australia but storms have been limited with only shallow moisture ahead of the trough during today.

ET Beni, now a cold cored rain depression has triggered some very useful falls in eastern Queensland. A broad trough covers the north of the continent and the trough is deepening down the west coast, with a high in the Bight. The baric ridge across our latitudes is again traceable near to 40°S.

Discussion:  The high in the Bight will ridge east through Bass Strait and join up with the high in the Tasman Sea, cradling the trough that will be left behind as the front shears away to the east during Thursday. The broad trough will remain over northern Australia with ET Beni losing all identity and dissolving into a trough over Queensland.

The area of convection in the Indian Ocean should be monitored for further organisation, and the development of upper outflow (which may bring moisture to Australia). A procession of highs through the Bight near to 40°S will ensure that fronts will be kept well south of the continent during the next few days.  The trough through Western Australia, weaker than the previous one, will move east during Thursday, triggering scattered showers and isolated storms in the southern half of the state.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A deepening easterly trough over the north and northeast of the state will trigger scattered showers and isolated storms over the central and eastern parts, mainly near the ranges. A milder southeasterly flow in the south will keep conditions mild and rather stable near the coast.
NSW: Scattered showers and isolated storms in the northeast during Thursday.   The trough moving into the southeast of the state will likely trigger showers and isolated storms east of the trough axis, but these are likely to be high based due to lack of moisture to any depth.
Queensland: Rain areas, with some substantial falls to continue over the central coast and inland, extending further south during Thursday. Seasonal storms in the north and northwest.
NT: Seasonal storms over the Top End, mainly during the afternoon.  Cloudy in the south of the Territory.
WA: Seasonal storm activity over the Kimberley, mainly coastal regions.   Isolated showers and storms associated with the west coast trough, moving through the Gascoyne and into the Goldfields.
SA: Mainly fine throughout, with some high cloud in the north of the state.
Tasmania: Fine and mild with light winds after drizzle patches clearing on Wednesday night..

Overview: ET Beni has become TC Beni for the second time (not an unknown occurrence) and has redeepened to 995hPa as it approaches the Queensland coast. It appears to be currently undergoing a change back from a cold cored to a warm cored low. Strengthening winds and some significant falls along the coast during Tuesday. Interaction with an upper low moving north over southeast Queensland is also helping trigger significant falls in that area. The high in the southern Tasman Sea is ridging to the east of TC Beni, helping to promote the westward drift.

The northeasterly flow around this high across southeastern Australia is increasing the moisture field ahead of the trough moving through South Australia during Tuesday. A broad trough covers northern Australia with a significant area of tropical convection that bears watching is located south of Timor. Tropical infeed continues onto the continent across the Pilbara. A very broad high stretches across the Indian Ocean from South Africa to the Bight!!

Discussion:  TC Beni will cross the Queensland coast and weaken while the upper low will move towards the surface low, with Beni becoming cold cored again..... but winds will remain rather strong for the next 24 - 48 hours or so with locally heavy falls in its vicinity, and its sphere of influence is likely to expand to include much of eastern Queensland, with a trough also active over the west of the state.

The high in the Tasman will strengthen and remain slow moving with the trough and front moving into Victoria and western New South Wales during Wednesday will slow and then stall. During Wednesday, moisture being drawn down ahead of this trough will lie between the trough axis through western New South Wales and Gippsland and the ridge in the Tasman in a broad band, with isolated showers and storms becoming more likely during the next day or two. Smoke haze will again feature over Victoria. A new high pressure cell will bud off from the ridge in the Bight and move towards the eastern Bight with the heat trough over the west coast beginning to deepen southwards.

Victoria: Increasing temperatures (and moisture levels) ahead of a trough moving into the west of the state. Cooler to the west of the trough, which will stall as it moves slowly east and encounters the ridge of high pressure. Isolated showers and the chance of storms associated with the trough mainly along the ranges (more likely to be the northern slopes) and over the alpine areas and northeast becoming more likely.
NSW: Scattered showers in the northeast and north, extending south along the ranges and coast.  Some heavy falls in the north are possible. Becoming warmer over the rest of the state, with increasing cloud in the west and a buildup of moisture ahead of the trough moving into the west of the state.
Queensland: Widespread showers tending to rain periods over the eastern central and southern parts of the state.  Showers also extending north along the coast. Seasonal storm activity over the northwest and Cape York.
NT: Scattered showers and isolated storms over the Top End and in the border regions to the east.
WA: Seasonal storm activity in the north.  Scattered showers and isolated storms associated with a trough moving through an area extending southeast from the Pilbara to the Goldfields.
SA: Showers with isolated storms associated with a trough moving through the state and also with an infeed of moisture from the northeast.  Storms most likely in the north, clearing through the state Wednesday.  Cooler southeasterly winds to follow with isolated coastal showers.
Tasmania: Northerly winds ahead of a front moving across the state.   Showers tending to rain likely throughout.

Overview: The high occupies the western Tasman Sea and ridges strongly along the east coast as well as to the northeast.The ridge has pressure forced the trough lying through eastern Australia well westward.  Widespread storms continue to be triggered along this trough. ET Beni has continued to weaken and is moving northwest parallel to the Queensland coast, strengthening winds in coastal areas. The outermost cloudband associated with ET Beni is crossing the coast accompanied by a moist southeasterly and has produced some very heavy falls in southeastern Queensland.

To the western half of the country, a pulse of tropical activity over the northern Indian Ocean continues moving east and a significant plume is feeding tropical moisture through the Pilbara and into the trough currently moving through Western Australia. An active and rapidly deepening surface low (968hPa at 4pm EDST) associated with a broad and complex upper trough is moving through the southern Bight with a cold front extending north to the Southwest of the state.

Discussion:  The high will remain quasi-stationary in the Tasman Sea and strengthen the ridge along the east coast, as well as a ridge to the northeast. The east Australia and trough lying through Queensland and New South Wales will likely absorb (or be absorbed) into the trough approaching from the west, as it continues to be pressure forced west by the ridge of high pressure along the coast.  A cold pool to the south of the surface low (ET Beni) in the upper levels destabilising conditions over the southeastern Queensland / northern New South Wales area. Heavy falls are again likely, with the rain area moving north along the coast and near coastal regions.

The trough moving through Western Australia and the front associated with the deep low in the southern Bight will move east, with tropical moisture continuing to feed into the system. A high will ridge into the western Bight just to the south of Western Australia.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A general northeast-northerly flow across the state.  Smoke haze widespread, particularly over the central and eastern areas. Mainly fine. Risk of a shower or storm in the northeast.
NSW: Showers along the northern coast and over the adjacent ranges, with some heavy falls.  Scattered storms in the north and northwest. Moisture increasing in the central and southeast of the state with scattered showers and storms over much of the state. 
Queensland: Showers tending to rain periods over southern and central coasts during Sunday night and Monday. Showers and storms associated with the trough in the west. Showers and storms over the northern part of Cape York.
NT: Isolated showers and storms in the northern Top End. Isolated showers and storms likely in the east later Tuesday.
WA: Scattered showers and storms through the coastal Kimberley and Pilbara and also associated with the trough moving through the Goldfields and Interior to the Eucla. Scattered cold air showers in the southwest clearing as the high ridges in.
SA: Isolated showers and storms in the northeast. Increasing cloud and temperatures particularly in the west ahead of a trough moving in from the west. Isolated storms in the west, moving through central districts later, followed by a milder southwesterly change.
Tasmania: Fine and becoming warmer.

Overview: The high continues to lie across the bass Strait / Tasmania area with a ridge extending along the east coast, having pressure forced the trough lying through eastern Australia well westward during Sunday.  Widespread storms have been triggered along this trough. ET Beni has weakened slightly and moved towards the Queensland coast, strengthening winds in coastal areas. The outermost cloudband associated with ET Beni is crossing the coast accompanied by a moist southeasterly.

To the western half of the country, a pulse of tropical activity over the northern Indian Ocean is moving east and a significant plume is feeding tropical moisture through the Pilbara and into the trough currently moving through Western Australia. An active and rapidly deepening surface low associated with a broad and complex upper trough is moving into the western Bight with a cold front extending north into the Southwest of the state.

Discussion:  The high will move into the Tasman Sea and strengthen the ridge along the east coast, as well as a ridge to the northeast, with the trough lying through Queensland and New South Wales being forced even further west during Monday (this is an unusual distance for a trough to be forced west, but it has happened this summer once already). ET Beni will weaken further and move onto the coast, with a cold pool to the south of the surface low in the upper levels destabilising conditions over the southeastern Queensland / northern New South Wales area. heavy falls are likely.

The trough moving through Western Australia and the front associated with the deepening low (which itself will continue to deepen but move southeast) in the Bight will move east through Monday. The upper ridge east of the trough will be 'squeezed' during Monday and will weaken. Moisture will be drawn from the trough in the west and is likely to increase the moisture field of the eastern trough as they get closer.  The western trough may be absorbed into the trough to the east and lose its identity.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: A general northeasterly flow across the state.  Smoke haze widespread, particularly over the central and eastern areas. Mainly fine with just the risk of a shower or storm in the far northwest near to the trough affecting western New South Wales and Queensland. Risk of a shower or storm in the northeast.
NSW: Showers along the northern coast and over the adjacent ranges, with some heavy falls.  Isolated storms are possible in the north and northwest. Moisture increasing in the central and southeast of the state. Risk of a shower or storm in the southeast.
Queensland: Showers tending to rain periods over southern and central coasts during Sunday night and Monday. Showers and storms associated with the trough in the west. Showers and storms over the northern part of Cape York.
NT: Isolated showers and storms in the northwest Top End.
WA: Scattered showers and storms through the coastal Kimberley and Pilbara and also associated with the trough moving through the Goldfields and Interior to the Eucla. Scattered cold air showers in the southwest.
SA: Isolated showers and storms in the northeast. Increasing cloud and temperatures particularly in the west ahead of a trough moving in from the west. Isolated storms in the far west, moving into central districts later.
Tasmania: Fine.

Overview: The high in the Bight remains this afternoon and ridges around the corner and along the east coast.   The trough running through Queensland and New South Wales to the west of the ranges is triggering storms as far south at the Northern Tablelands and Northwest Slopes and has had its eastward movement stalled by the ridge lying along the coast. TC Beni has finally taken on extratropical characteristics having become cold-cored rather than warm-cored during the last 18 hours and continues to move towards the Queensland coast.

Seasonal storm activity continues in the northwest of the continent with the west coast trough deepening southward and an active trough and surface low pressure system approaching the western Bight.

Discussion:  The high in the Bight will move into the Tasman Sea during Sunday with the ridge along the coast moving west and ET (ExtraTropical) Beni moving in from the northeast as a ridge extending north from New Zealand strengthens during Sunday.. Showers tending to rain along the coast and hinterland of the central areas of Queensland are likely with the approach of ET Beni.The inland trough will be pressure forced westward during Sunday.

The low entering the western Bight will move east through the Bight with the west coast trough also moving east. Scattered showers and storms are again likely in the west and south of Western Australia. Temperatures over most of southern Australia will increase during the next day or three with the approach of the next trough from the west.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: The trough will continue to deepen southward into the northeast of the state and may trigger isolated showers or storms in the area. Drizzle patches in the south clearing by morning and conditions remaining fine and becoming warmer.
NSW: Isolated showers along the coast, mainly north of Sydney, more frequent in the far northeast.  Isolated storms associated with the westward drifting trough (mainly east of the trough axis), but only light falls. Fine and becoming warmer elsewhere.
Queensland: Scattered showers and storms associated with the trough along the west of the ranges and moving west through Sunday.  Showers tending to periods of rain over the central and southern Queensland coasts with strengthening southeasterly winds.
NT: Coastal showers and isolated storms, mainly in the northwest of the Top End and near to the Kimberley.
WA: Scattered showers and storms over the Kimberley and northern Interior extending to the Pilbara and through the Gascoyne and moving east through Sunday. Hot ahead of the trough.
SA: Fine and becoming warmer as the southeasterly flow across the state turns more east-northeasterly. Cloud along the coast but remaining dry and clearing Sunday.
Tasmania: Drizzle patches in the south and west clearing.  Becoming mild throughout with light winds.

Overview: The front that passes through southeastern Australia is shearing away from the trough (although the relationship can still be traced), and a complex trough lies through northeastern New South Wales and Queensland. A moisture plume, although weaker, still exists from broad tropical infeed over the Top End and the Kimberley through the southern Territory, southern Queensland and thence southeast.  Another trough lies near to the Gulf of Carpentaria.

TC Beni (at ~23°S) has begun to move west against a weakening upper ridge between it and the Queensland coast. A low is located over the eastern Kimberley and the west coast trough is deepening along the coast. A high has taken up temporary residence in the Bight, with embedded troughs moving east in the west-southwesterly flow to the south of the high..

Discussion:  The trough over eastern Australia will be pushed northeast and lie west of the ranges during Saturday, dipping southward into northern New South Wales, and possibly into more southern parts of the state. Moisture in this trough is likely to trigger showers and storms, mainly in far northern parts. The ridge of high pressure along the east coast will strengthen, but only slightly, and as TC Beni continues to push west, the pressure gradient will steepen, with stronger winds likely over central parts of the Queensland coast.

The broad trough over northern Australia will persist, with the west coast trough continuing to deepen southward.   An approaching front associated with an active upper trough will affect the southwest corner during later Saturday.  Showers and storms are likely with the interaction between the west coast trough and approaching front.

Rainfall potential
Victoria: Isolated drizzle patches in the south along the coast, mainly in the southwest. Milder conditions during Saturday, warmer in the north.  Chance of a shower in the northeast.
NSW: Isolated showers and the risk of a storm in the northeast of the state, possibly extending inland during the afternoon. A northeasterly onshore flow to the east of the trough will keep conditions milder.
Queensland: The trough inland of the ranges will drift northeast during Saturday, and become quasi-stationary against the ridge along the coast. Showers and storms associated with the trough with most activity in the north, but isolated storms are also likely in the southeast nearer the coast. Isolated showers likely along much of the coast in a moister southeasterly flow.
NT: Scattered showers, mainly in the west and over the western Top End. Isolated showers and storms over the Barkly region in the east. 
WA: Showers and storms over the Kimberley and northern Interior. Also likely in the deepening trough down the west coast, extending east.  Isolated drizzle patches and showers in the far southwest associated with the passage of a front.
SA: Isolated drizzle possible along the west coast.  Dry and becoming warmer.
Tasmania: Scattered showers becoming more isolated and clearing.   Southwesterly winds becoming lighter and more westerly.

January 2003 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page