ASWA Victoria - February 2000 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Updated 2013AEDST - 28th February 2000 - J ONeill
February 2000 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page ASWA Victoria
Date	Name	Information
28	Jane ONeill	Water vapour feeding in from tropical WA came in contact with the northern edge of the jet west of Tasmania this afternoon and rebounded, starting to head north through Victoria and into New South Wales - there's already a kink developing in the flow pattern & the setup isn't unlike the one about the same time last year which had 3 lows form in the same position one after the other.......watch for a low developing west of Tasmania in the next 36 hours.
27	Andrew McDonald	Looks to be a boring end to Feb and even more boring start to March unlike last year's explosive end and beginning. Seems like we may have to wait a little longer for another decent outbreak of storms (which I still think will show up before the end of March when the High's start to shift from their current position allowing some cooler upper level air to come up from the S). Models are showing nothing of interest for the next week at least (which I hope is wrong) except for the thunderies forecast on the E ranges Monday and Tuesday - these are likely to be confined to the far E of the state. Thursday looks like it could provide a little more interest but not the interest levels that I'm after. The change which is currently due in the SW of the state late Thursday could pass through overnight and fizz to nothing even so it won't be anything too spectacular. A much better looking system is being forecast for early-mid NEXT week (6,7th March) but this will no doubt change. Still - it is something to look forward to I guess. After a BIG outbreak of severe storms on 9/10th October to signify the start of the season, I'm now looking for our BIG outbreak of severe weather to signify the end of the season (which has been far from impressive with only a few flash flooding severe storms around - no hail or wind based severe storms - which i think is due to the Jet which has been virtually non-existent causing the warmer upper air temps). April seems to be a fairly boring month in terms of severe-wx in Victoria with the patterns changing from the summer systems to the winter systems. If we are lucky we can get some warmer surface temps and some fairly cool upper temps to kick off some late season storms OR an early season cold outbreak which can provide the chance for waterspouts on Port Phillip Bay and the coasts like Wonthaggi area and the SW coast down past Cape Otway. These SW-facing coastlines act as a moisture convergence zone in strong SW'ly winds as the air-mass slows as it hits the coast. Also - at that time of the year the sea temperatures are still relatively warm providing more moisture for coldies to grow in.
27	Clyve Herbert	Keep an eye on the cloud band extending from WA into Victoria in typical late summer location.....there may be some development in the next 12 - 24 hours.
23	Andrew McDonald	Weak short-wave upper trough coming through today which could make things very interesting. Areas which get best heating should see good storm development with strong N-NE'ly surface flow and then 700mb winds are fairly strong at about 30knts from the NW and I think WNW @ 500mb (speed not sure) and 300mb Jet of 60-70knts from the WNW or W. If we can get temps up to low 30's in some areas CAPE's should be fairly high - possibly up to 1000j/kg. 500mb should cool during the day today (which is a good thing) due to the short-wave dropping 500 temps to about -9 which is a little better. FZL could/should be too high for large hail but there is sufficient moisture in the atmosphere for decent flash flooding. Possibility of strong winds as well but I don't think the updrafts will have quite enough strength to hold up enough precip. to cause this.
22	Clyve Herbert	Trough moving through Western Victoria & NSW will bring showers with possible storms to the north west & north of Victoria later today as the cloud area moves away to the SE. Abundant atmospheric moisture and convective heating to the west of the clearing edge may allow isolated storms to develop in the northwest and along the ranges.
21	Clyve Herbert	Significant rain event for parts of eastern Australia developing. Full depth low pressure system developed near Adelaide & has continued to move NE over the last 24 hours. Expected to be very slow moving over the next 24 - 48 hours & produce significant rainfall totals in western parts of NSW.
7	Clyve Herbert	Strengthening high in the South Tasman. Probability of this system becoming quasi-blocking. This blocking process may cause the now zonal flow to 'traffic jam' across southern Australia into a meridional flow between 850 and 300HpA. Risk: with the upper flow becoming meridional, the large area of moisture over Queensland may be advected southward into NSW & Victoria over the next several days.
7	Jane ONeill	Middle level (~400-600hPa) area of low pressure forming west of Adelaide - will continue to move southeast slowly along the coast of SA & Vic over the next 24-36 hours as the amplitude of the meridional flow increases over SE Australia.