February 2001 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria
Date Name

Information
26 Clyve Herbert Looks like former tropical cyclone Abigail will reform tonight, the system looks better organised over the Gulf than it has at any stage before, could become rather severe if it stays over the open sea, however the main problem will be if this development gets into the Top End of the NT especially after the considerable amounts of rain that have fallen in that region over the past 3 weeks! Meanwhile further east and just east of the Solomons and north of the New Hebrides, this region continues to be an area of positive convection with large CB developments - this location has some potential for the generation of embryonic TC activity.
25 Clyve Herbert Hi all weather lovers.
Former tropical cyclone Abigail now over the Gulf of Carp: area is showing some moderate to good upper divergence, rather difficult to find a true centre, although this system has possibly been rather complex through its history since its development with what I suspect has been an occurrence of multiple centres at times. The low to mid convergence is not well organized at the moment but sea temps in the Gulf area are better than 28c and possibly close to 30c, and as with all other tropical activity this season there is better upper outflow potential towards the west side of tropical northern Aus: - should see a more defined centre by later today if the system remains over the open sea.  Also at the other end of the scale there seems to be a marked thermal trough well south of WA and moving at the moment to the northeast (cold at 500hpa)  that may generate a reasonable cold front although this activity may pass south of the mainland and clip Tasmania.
22 Clyve Herbert The area west of the New Hebrides still looks very promising,there appears to be a large better organised (rounded) thunderstorm complex moving slowly west southwest,this system has rather good potential for TC status although upper divergence is still a little on the weak side. Ocean temperatures should be a little warmer near to the Coral sea, also upper divergence may improve as this system moves to higher latitudes over the next 12 hours. There is also good upper outflow to the north associated with the tropical easterly jet
20 Clyve Herbert There's a fair bit going on across the Australian region today (tonight) - of main interest to me is the upper low moving southwest from the northeast of NSW, also the tropical depression over northwest Australia seems to have started to move south southeast over the past 4 hours.The upper low should be watched for continued retrograde movement over the next 12 hours especially with 300hpa temps around -43 near Brisbane today, it's not often that upper cold pools move south-westward from near tropical areas!!. Another area that has me interested is a large and persistent region of convection near to the Solomon Is (Guadalcanal), some of the convection here is very large but the upper divergence field seems to be weak at the moment. This area of activity is sitting at the top of the main feeder band which is starting to wrap around the upper low in Northern NSW,if this feeder band moves in around this system it may affect the central and south coast of NSW  - worth keeping an eye on for a day or so.
12 Clyve Herbert The centre of former TC Winsome is still showing reasonable convergence and rather good high level outflow and appears to be moving slowly westward, there is also another tropical disturbance well off the coast of northwest WA that is showing some potential as well, there is good outflow south of Winsome with upper cirrus bands moving rapidly to the east northeast from Alice Springs to the central Coral Sea. With the  present level of positive atmospheric support around Winsome it looks as if this system moves offshore there is a good chance of reactivation, another possibility is for the system to become absorbed into a deep trough moving through SA and Vic at the moment but this is only  a slight possibility, more likely to see the strong high south of WA ridging to the  Aus Bight which may aid in pressure forcing Winsome off shore.
10 ASWA - Victoria meeting at the Pancake Parlour, Doncaster Road, Doncaster starting at 8.30am
9 Jane ONeill Victoria west of 143E is already firing with a very bright white anvil already showing up on the satpics. You can actually see the anvil from Melbourne!! Dewpoints are between 16C & 18C in the western part of the state.

Draw a line from Cape Otway to the north of the state & if you are anywhere west of that line in the next few hours, you probably have a pretty good chance of running some film through your camera!!
8 Clyve Herbert Good potential in Victoria today especially the western central and northern areas, moisture is relatively good especially in the mid levels, look out for possible severe storms in the said regions!. Also most of SA is looking ok too.
7 Nick Sykes Looks like some storms out near the SA/Vic border tonight. Victoria looks half interesting for the next couple of days. There is a large amount of moisture over SA atm which will hopefully be drawn over Vic by the approaching trough. Upper level support is a bit dodgy over the state atm, but more supportive conditions over the SE of SA today will move further east, aided by the approaching trough. Western Vic looks to be the best bet for storms tomorrow, with a chance in Melbourne into the evening/night. Friday has some nice potential in northern Victoria with the trough slowly moving through and higher DP's. Upper level support looks better again, even with a hint of jet stream support. Could see some severe action up there. Cloud could be a worry.
6 Clyve Herbert Looks like the northeast and east central area of SA could fire up some big storms today all in the vicinity of the Gipsy low, could be some big B#@*ers in that area after 1200hrs and then possibly moving southward and eastward into western NSW.

Evidence of a weak trough over central Victoria this morning which has manifested itself into a wonderful display of alto castallatus and heaps of it,although probably formed as a result of radiational cooling overnight it shows a moist layer between 8000ft and 12000ft, its a little dry and warm above that level, all moving from about 330degrees.It will be interesting to see how some good surface convection will be able to overcome the cap and drive some unexpected storms across Victoria today
4 Clyve Herbert I am absolutely fascinated by this upper low almost covering all of QLD at the moment. This low can be traced from just west of Sydney almost a week ago, since then it has moved northward bring remarkable rainfall along the east coast, and then moving into the tropics two days ago and still maintaining its mid latitude circulation signature. However over the last 12 hours this "Gipsy" low has moved south-southwest with outer cloud bands extending from Alice Springs to Melbourne! looks like the system may continue its southward movement and may affect NSW and Victoria over the next 24 -36 hours.
3 Nick Sykes Today looks to be very hot throughout Victoria with clear skies and fresh northerlies. Temps will be in the high 30's near 40 through most the state. A weak cool change is currently over the SE of SA.

Another interesting thing to note is an increase in the DP's over Victoria overnight (mid teens, woohooo, don't NSW or QLD people say anything). It looks like some of that huge amount of moisture inland is been forced south into the trough. Upper level support isn't the worst I've seen and with the trough lingering over the area tomorrow some action could kick off.

Back to MSC