December 2001 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page Victoria |
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| Date | Name | Information |
| 31 | Rod Aikman | Article from the Bendigo Advertiser reporting a dust devil on 29th December. http://www.stormchasers.au.com/29_12_01dd.htm |
| 31 | Clyve Herbert | It appears that the Australasian tropics area now showing increased potential for TC development. Although just outside our region, an impressive TC east of Fiji looks nasty with very good upper divergence and lower convergence...seems to be moving southward. Also there is a small area of upper divergence near to Honiara with a small but reasonably good area of surface and mid level convergence.. The now largish cloud 'splotch' north of Darwin is looking better with improved 300 to 250hpa outflow, although the low level convergence is still on the weak side but sea surface temps are close to 30C in this area, the outflow from this system north of the NT is at last providing better upper moisture loading to QLD. At the opposite end of the scale not a bad looking cold air field southwest of Victoria which may bring another burst of coldies to the southeast of Australia and Tasmania over the next 24 hours. |
| 30 | Clyve Herbert | A large cloud area over the NT and north of Darwin continues to show some moderate upper divergence, although rather disorganised at the lower levels with not so good inflow and convergence, worth keeping an occasional eye on over the next 24 hours. Also the trough over NSW is looking ok except for the dry environmental conditions, although this should improve today with stronger north easterlies east of the range. |
| 29 | Clyve Herbert | I think the surface trough will stall over eastern central NSW northeast NSW and south east QLD. Pressure over most of Aus is below average and the low south of the Bight looks to fall below 970hpa, the high southwest of Perth looks to ridge to higher latitudes. Melbourne and southern Vic should see its 30+c day today for this summer season. |
| 27 - 31 | . | The unseasonal cold air field over Tasmanian & Victoria will drift east into the Tasman, mid levels will warm in these regions over the next 2 days, while a few residual showers & drizzle patches will affect Tasmania & southern regions of Victoria Thursday morning. The weakening high pressure area will drift towards Bass Strait & western Victoria Thursday, then drift to the Tasman Sea Friday & Saturday where the high will then strengthen & push a ridge up the east coast. The trough due Saturday / Sunday through SE Australia will precede a stronger high moving into the Bight Sunday / Monday. In Queensland, ridiculously hot conditions will persist over central inland areas, but with increasing instability, there may be a few storms later in the week. Seasonal storms will persist in the tropics. Milder, more humid northeasterlies should develop on the SE & central coast of Queensland over the latter part of the week, but a trough persisting inland may see afternoon storms & showers particularly north of Nambour. In NSW, a ridge pushing up the coast should spread milder SE northwards over the next several days. A trough moving into the western border areas Saturday / Sunday is preceded by rather dry air, although a few high based showers and storms are possible. During the weekend, as the trough advances east, it should encounter moister air over the ranges & the east coast & more general thunderstorms & showers are likely. Seasonal showers & storms should continue to affect the NT north of Tennant Creek, although the passage of the trough during the weekend may see isolated high based storms in the far south. Seasonal storms should persist over the Kimberley with isolated thundery showers in the Pilbara during the period. Seasonally very warm to hot throughout except for the south coast. SA - not much happening here! Enjoy the barbeque...although the trough on the weekend my generate isolated very high based storms. |
| 27 | David Jones | I can only really give two snippets of guidance. The first based on the GASP, USAVN, ECMWF and UK models all suggest another "cold blast" for early next week - I don't use those word lightly! with sub 544 thickness over southern Victoria for 2+ days and cyclonic SW flow - read cold wet and windy. In fact almost a repeat of this weeks weather. This Saturday will be warmish but, I suspect it will start out from a low point (I would be guessing around 12C Saturday morning for Melbourne) and with thickness values only getting into the middle 560s I couldn't imagine much about 32C south of the divide. Longer range, the Bureau seasonal forecast (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/temps_ahead.shtml) shows a weak favouring of above normal day temperatures for JFM, though the shifts from normal are small.. |
| 25 & 26 | . | Australian Christmas 2001 An interesting development is the low pressure system WSW of Tasmania - the surrounding airmass associated with this low is cold. Freezing levels are edging lower across southern Victoria and Tasmania over the next 24 hours with progressive destabilisation across much of SE Australia and Tasmania. With this cold air mass may come snowfalls about the Tasmanian high country, particularly above ~1000m. The best times for snow in Tasmania are Christmas Day & Boxing Day - beards & red coats required!! For Victoria, the coldest air will probably remain over Bass Strait & Tasmania (south of 40S), with the possibility of wet snow on the Victorian Alps later Christmas Day & Boxing Day, mainly above ~1500m. On Boxing Day, there is a risk of snow to lower levels at this stage. For the remainder of Victoria, showers in the south with the chance of hail & brief thunder, isolated heavy showers particularly near the Otways & the South Gippsland hills. Also strong winds are a risk in southern & mountain regions, and particularly through Bass Strait. For the rest of Australia - b***** hot on the east coast of Queensland with isolated thunderstorms likely east of a dryline trough running from near Brisbane to Biloela & north. New South Wales - warm to hot in north & eastern areas but progressively cooling in the south & west. Slight chance of snow or sleet on the Snowies on Boxing Day. Remaining seasonally warm to hot in the NT & WA. A few storms in the NT north of Tennant Creek & a few Christmas storms over the Kimberley with the chance of high based brief thundery showers extending to the Pilbara, mainly on Boxing Day. Tasmania - a large cold airfield will spread over Tasmania on Christmas Day & Boxing Day - moisture loading is higher here so expect possible heavy showers mainly in western coastal regions with local thunder & hail. Snow showers above ~1000m by Boxing Day morning. Cold nights in eastern coastal areas, but locally mild in with sunny breaks. For the yachties: a large & deep depression WSW of Tasmania has a belt of strong to gale force winds north of its centre extending to the Victorian SW coast Monday. The low is slow moving, but should drift south of Tasmania later Christmas Day & Boxing Day. The belt of strong to gale force NW-SW winds will extend in to Bass Strait Christmas Day & then move to eastern Bass Strait & east of Tasmania in the south Tasman on Boxing Day. There is a risk that winds may reach 40knots+ at times on these days, with brief higher squalls associated with showers. Water surface temperatures over Bass Strait are ~15-16C - this airmass of southern origin which will enhance windchill especially on Boxing Day. |
| 24 | Andrew McDonald | I've just been perusing through the
models for Xmas and Boxing Days and feel there is a good chance of some severe weather of
the cold air type - especially so on Wednesday in southern Victoria. The BoM are currently going for scattered showers in southern and mountain areas on Wednesday but I think that will change by tonight/tomorrow to include local hail and thunder in the south and east. GASP, LAPS and AVN all have the 540 line running through central Vic and 850 temps are forecast to be below 2C on Wednesday morning. AVN has extremely cold upper air temps over Melbourne late on Wednesday morning, drifting eastwards to the Gippsland region by afternoon. 500mb temps are forecast to be about -26 to -27C (extremely cold for this time of year). With surface temps currently forecast to be 19-21C across the southern areas things could become quite interesting. The current sat pic shows quite a large cold air pool sitting W of Tassie and SW of Adelaide. Intense showers and possible storms with hail should start to move through south western Vic late tomorrow evening/night and should effect south central districts through Wednesday morning and south eastern districts late morning into the afternoon. Although showers will persist well into Thursday right across S Vic it is less likely that these will be as strong due to the upper level support not being there. Some snow showers are not out of the question on the southern Vic alps (Mt Baw Baw and Donna Buang) and I would even throw in the chance of a waterspout/tornado too given the current forecasts. |
| 24 | . | Discussion: Cool
air showers following the passage of the front in a W-SW airstream of southern origin. A
series of weak wave lows forming west of Tasmania. Associated weak fronts will affect
Victoria south of the ranges. Light rain & storms in eastern WA & northern SA
should continue to move eastwards into NSW. The low west of Tasmania will move slowly
eastwards & be south of Tasmania on Boxing Day. The large cold air field
associated with this system should affect the far south of southern SA, southern Victoria
& Tasmania with the bulk of cold air staying south of 40S at this stage. The
injection of this cold airfield into the Australian southeast may result in cool air
thunderstorm activity mainly in Tasmania with a risk over southern Victoria. Trough moving through central and northern NSW will trigger shower & storm activity over much of the eastern part of the state today as well as southeast Queensland with clearing to the west of it. Risks: The cold pool associated with this system may result in complications across Victoria on Wednesday with the potential for increased shower & storm activity over the south and the slight risk of wet snow over higher peaks of Victoria with stronger potential over the high country of Tasmania on Christmas Day & Boxing Day. Other risks involve the strong NW-SW flow through Bass Strait on Boxing Day & through the south Tasman Sea on Thursday which may have an affect on some of the smaller craft in the Sydney-Hobart Yacht Race. |
| 24 | ABC News | Wild storms lash eastern
Victoria A wild storm has damaged two houses, flooded a police station and left debris across the Princes Highway in East Gippsland. Police say the storm swept across the Gippsland Lakes area at about 4:30am AEDT, causing problems in Bairnsdale, Paynesville and Lakes Entrance. Rain, wind and hail have brought down trees and branches and some are across roads in the region. Marble size hail stones smashed windows of a home at the resort town of Paynesville and other houses were flooded when drains failed to cope with storm water. Sergeant Phil Bogle from Lakes Entrance Police, says trees are down on most roads leading into the popular summer holiday spot. He says tourists traffic visiting the area for Christmas should take special care this morning. "What I'm advising people to do is to take extreme caution when they're traveling along the Princes Highway," he said. "There are about two to three inches of debris across the roadway especially in treed areas and I'd just inform people to travel at a top speed of 50 to 60 kilometres along the highway until the road is cleared." The weather bureau's Geoff Kitchen says the storm is not likely to cause many more problems, on land at least. "It looks as though the storm has moved out now, probably off the coast in far east Gippsland. The lightning flashes we're seeing at the moment are sort of south of about Orbost, so I think its probably moving out to sea and tending to weaken." |
| 23 | . | Discussion: Weak
trough through the east of Victoria Sunday followed by a stronger front expected mid -
late afternoon in the central districts. The air mass in the lower layers in the west and
central districts is of west - southwest origin and is rather dry, although the passage of
the front should be sufficient to trigger shower activity in these areas. Further
east, the development of a trough ahead of the front may see shower & storm activity
east of a line Wangaratta - Orbost, more particularly in the NE high country & near to
the NSW border. Following the passage of this cold front, pressure should progressively
build in the Bight region, but there should be a a stream of cool southern air which will
continue to affect southern Victoria and Tasmania for the next several days with a few
showers in those regions. The coldest air will probably remain south of 40S & this may
lead to the risk of a white Christmas over parts of the Tasmanian high country. Yes, this
is summer!! Meanwhile the trough should linger over central Queensland and northern NSW for most of the week, with occasional showers and thunderstorms mainly east of a line Camooweal - Goondiwindi - Tamworth. The strengthening sub tropical jet recurving over the Bight is generating increased upper level cloud which is thickening over north western NSW. A mid-upper level disturbance over the south western Tasman near to the south coast of NSW will combine with the surface low & move away during Sunday. |
| 22 | . | Discussion: A
weak ridge over waters south of Australia will continue to weaken as a mid-latitude system
advances towards the Bight on Saturday. A cold airmass will move over Bight waters
over the weekend behind a cold front due across Victoria on Sunday. At this stage,
most of the cold air will remain below 40S. A trough will persist over eastern
Queensland and the central east of NSW with good storm activity. Victoria will see a
phase of unseasonal mid-latidtude westerlies from later Sunday through to Wednesday. Risks: there is a possibility of unseasonably cold air reaching SE Australia later Sunday & Monday with the potential of cold pool complications on Monday and Tuesday. |
| 21 | David Jones | BTW WX watchers, I can't help but think
we are discounting the real potential of this upcoming system. Every avaliable prog at
this stage (JMA, UKMO, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and GASP) develops a strong low near Tasmania for
Christmas, and all place sub 544-540 thickness values across Tasmania and into Victoria.
If the model scenarios are correct, I would be expecting a very wintery Christmas period,
with widespread rain/showers and mountain snow. Such a wintery outcome is not unusual for
this time of year.. similar happened in 1993 and also 1999 (in 1993 there was ~20cm of
snow at such places as Lake Mt on Boxing Day). Eg take a lookie at the latest NOGAP run, below to see what I mean. |
| 21 | . | Discussion: The 300hPa flow is becoming more zonal with a surface wave low currently developing in the Bight indicating the position of the developing trough. High in the Bight to remain weak. In NSW, the slow moving trough will trigger storms in the Hunter and NE today. Victoria will remain under the influence of a weak surface ridge. There is a weak mid-level disturbance over the eastern parts of South Australia, but this is not expected to trigger more than isolated light virga or showers & should track northeast towards the Riverina. Risks: the low at ~28S may deepen & track ESE to combine with the heat trough and affect the southern parts of Western Australia bringing storms later in the weekend. |
| 20 | . | Discussion: Narrow frontal band crossing Victoria today bringing virga and light showers, with a chance of embedded storms as the front moves east. A high building in the Bight with the WA heat trough re-establishing itself over the next day or two. Temperatures will remain mild for the next few days in the S-SW onshore flow in the south & mild to warm in the north of Victoria. Breaking records: Melbourne broke the record for the latest 30 degree day in any summer since 1856 when the temperature reached 29.5C yesterday. |
| 18 | . | Conditionally unstable over central
Victoria this morning. Deepening trough over NSW and into Victoria will further
destabilise conditions in the east today and tomorrow. The upper trough moving towards the
NSW central tablelands will interact with the surface trough leading to a destabilisation
as the day progresses. The high will continue easing into the Tasman Sea, and another
trough in SA should affect Vic Wednesday & Thursday. Worth watching: An area of convection to the NE of Papua - New Guinea, moving slowly westwards, is beginning to show signs of organisation and strengthening outflow. |
| 17 | . | The high currently ridging weakly through
Bass Strait will strengthen in the Tasman Sea while the deepening trough through NSW is
expected to affect eastern parts of Victoria today & continue to deepen
tomorrow. A weak 300hPa trough off the coast of WA and a deepening heat
trough over the WA land area heralds a change in the current pattern & is expected to
affect Victoria later this week with increasing temperatures & instability. Worth watching: developing baroclinic cloud leaf in Western Australia |
| 16 | . | A weak mid-upper level disturbance is currently located in the head of the Bight and marks the position of a weak 300hPa trough. The baric ridge through Victoria & Bass Strait continues to weaken. Moist onshore flow will result in cloud south of the ranges, with clear conditions to the north. The trough in NSW looks to deepen today through Tuesday. There is little available moisture over the NW of the continent with no significant increase likely during the next day or so. Risks: The deepening trough may lead to the risk of showers on the eastern ranges, being more likely Monday & Tuesday. |
| 9 | Nick Sykes | The cool pattern continues with the
models having no heat before the 17th. We must be on track for a record cold December here
in Melbourne. Need some major changes in the weather pattern if we are to see any heat.
The high SW of Perth remains steadfast and with no highs in the Tasmna, onshore winds are
set to rule. 18 tomorrow in Melbourne |
| 6 | Nick Sykes | Just had my nightly look at GASP and it
looks like the cold weather pattern will continue in Vic for at least the next 7 to 9
days. GASP has a persistent strong high pressure cell SW of WA and a blocking low in the
Tasman. This will mean onshore winds for Victoria. No sign of a break down of this pattern
with the only half interesting thing is the possibility of a low pressure trough
developing over Vic on Sun/Mon, but this looks more likely for NE of Victoria. So one of the coldest ever starts to summer will go on. Looks like there is a good chance of the latest 30C day ever for summer will be set. The old record is the 19th of December. On current indications I cant see it been above 30 before the 15th. |
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