Victoria Central Ranges Weather Discussion

Specially presented weather discussion on the central ranges presented by Australian Sky & Weather which will include a prognosis on expected weather and a discussion of past weather.

VICTORIAN CENTRAL RANGES WEATHER (including Blackwood)

Update 13th February 2012

13th February - 19th February 2012

OVERVIEW: The spell of cool rather humid weather will continue through Monday with a warmer trend from Tuesday to Wednesday but remaining rather humid. A trough approaches Wednesday then slowly moves across Victoria Thursday to stall over the northeast of the state. Cooler behind the trough from Thursday but a warming trend for the weekend but again remaining rather humid. Apart from light showers or drizzle through Monday and early Tuesday the next showery spell appears later Wednesday mixed with a chance of thunderstorms, showers likely Thursday then tapering off for Friday to partly cloudy conditions. Over the weekend partly cloudy with humid northeast or east winds and a risk of an isolated storm.

DAILY WEATHER CONDITIONS

MONDAY 13/2/12: Cloudy spells with patchy drizzle about the ridges and southern slopes mainly in the morning then partly cloudy with sunny breaks in the afternoon. Southeast winds occasionally fresh, a very cool morning and a milder afternoon. MIN TEMPS 9 to 12°C MAX TEMPS 18 to 21°C

TUESDAY 14/2/12: Patchy early drizzle and mist mainly over the higher areas, then partly cloudy with increasing sunny breaks, a very cool morning and a warmer afternoon, southeast winds occasionally fresh but becoming lighter later or overnight. MIN TEMPS 10 to 12°C MAX TEMPS 21 to 23°C

WEDNESDAY 15/2/12: Early low cloud or mist then a warmer day but humid, patchy cloud in the afternoon with an increasing risk of showers and storms, northeast or north winds mainly light, a milder humid southwest or southerly change later or overnight. MIN TEMPS 11 to 13°C MAX TEMPS 24 to 27°C

THURSDAY 16/2/12: Early mist and low cloud, chance of showers and a risk of thunder mainly early to late morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon with increasing sunny breaks. South or southeast winds becoming fresh and gusty later, overnight low cloud and mist. MIN TEMPS 10 to 12°C MAX TEMPS 19 to 21°C

FRIDAY 17/2/12: Areas of low cloud and mist in the morning then becoming partly cloudy with sunny breaks increasing, southeast winds occasionally fresh. MIN TEMPS 10 to 12°C MAX TEMPS 22 to 24°C

SATURDAY 18/2/12: Early mist and low cloud then increasing sunny breaks, patchy cloud in the afternoon and a risk of a shower or storm, warmer and humid in the afternoon. east or northeast winds tending southeast later. MIN TEMPS 11 to 13°C MAX TEMPS 24 to 27°C

SUNDAY 19/2/12: Patchy early low cloud then partly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, humid and warm with northeast or southeast winds, a few showers and a risk of a storm in the afternoon and evening. MIN TEMPS 12 to 13°C MAX TEMPS 13 to 17°C.

Australian Sky and Weather....Trentham Vic.

Climate of the Victorian Central Ranges

The Central Ranges area extends from Ballarat in the west to Kilmore in the east and from Kyneton in the north to Gisborne in the south generally incorporating the Central Ranges above 400m.

The area is normally referred to in the official forecasts as the North Central, however AUSSKY wishes to present a specialised experimental forecast for the areas previously outlined where climatic conditions can be significantly different from northern parts of the formal North Central region. During winter months, the Central Ranges are susceptible to frost, ice and snow, often mixed with fog, while in summer months, considerable variation can occur in temperature between the southern slopes and the northern slopes separated by the ridgeline. Another significant feature of the region are the local phenomena of strong ridge winds, especially in summer, associated with south and southeasterly low level winds. In respect to elevation, a good deal of the Central Ranges are in excess of 600m, between Ballarat and Woodend, with the highest points in this area approaching 900m south of Trentham and Bullarto. Another region of significant height is found at Mt Macedon, where elevations exceed 950m with Camels Hump rising to 1013m.

RAINFALL: The entire region exhibits a bias to winter maximum associated with orographic forcing of troughs and fronts during that season. Minimum amounts of rainfall occur in the summer months, particularly in January to March. Overall, rainfall amounts range from near 700mm on the western margins, to reach near 1300mm at Blue Mountain south of Trentham. East of the Trentham Rise, annual rainfall declines to reach near 850mm at Woodend and approaching 700mm at Kilmore. The Mt Macedon Ranges exert a local influence with the summit approaching 1000mm, and Mt Towrong approaching 1200mm annually. To the north of the ridge, rainfall amounts decline rather rapidly, with 750mm average at Kyneton declining to 575mm at Redesdale only 30 or so km to the northeast. During wintertime there can be prolonged periods of fog and drizzle on and north of the main ridge with cloud rapidly breaking to the south. During the summer months, persistent south or southeasterly winds bring drizzle and fog to the southern slopes and ridgetops especially at night and early morning. In the summer period cloud rapidly breaks to the north of the ridge to reveal fine and clear weather.

SNOWFALLS: The entire region is susceptible to occasional light snowfalls in winter, mainly between the months of May and September. Most falls are generally light and rather insignificant, and are of a snowshower nature. Most snowfalls are associated with cold Southern Maritime or modified Polar airmasses. Heavier falls are occasionally experienced usually every 2 - 5 years when the entire region may be covered to a depth of between 2 and 5cm. At Trentham (elevation 700m), a 40 year mean average occurrence is about 4 snow days per year, mainly occurring in July and August. At higher altitudes, snowfall occurrences increase rapidly above 900m. At Mt Macedon (1003m), snowfalls can be recorded on 15-20 days a year with snow lying occurring on 10-15 days a year. It is estimated that 1 annual snow day occurs near 500m elevation.

FROST:The entire region is susceptible to severe frost, generally between the months of May and September. Light frosts have been recorded in all months. The period of minimum frost incidence occurs between January and March. Temperatures will approach -5°C on several occasions each winter, but there can be significant variation over short distance in the severity of frost. Extreme minimums have been near -10°C - Mt Macedon with -9°C and Trentham - 7.5°C. A feature of the region in winter is the occasional appearance of Black Ice, mainly occurring at elevations above 500m. The occurrence of black ice can cause major traffic disruption across the region.

THUNDERSTORMS: A 40 year record taken at Trentham (24 hour), indicates a mean annual average there of 20 thunderdays. This is a reasonable representation of the Central Ranges. Annual thunderday incidence is extremely variable from year to year. Severe thunderstorms with hail, strong winds occur annually, mainly between September and March. Tornadoes have been reported on rare occasions. Some of Australia's most severe tornadic activity has occurred on the northern slopes of the Central Ranges.

Central Ranges Weather discussion