Central Ranges Weather discussion The Australian Sky and Weather Swallow

Specially presented weather discussion on the central ranges presented by Australian Sky & Weather which will include a prognosis on expected weather and a discussion of past weather.

 

Trentham Online Weather Station (700m ASL)

Groves St (700m ASL)

http://trentham.bsch.au.com/Trentham/Current_Vantage_Prop2.htm

VICTORIAN CENTRAL RANGES WEATHER   (including Blackwood)

Greetings all Central Ranges weather lovers, Australian Sky and Weather is back in Australia. AUSSKY will provide our weather outlook for the Central Ranges Victoria until the end of January 2015. Our weather outlooks are composed from traditional forecasting methods combined with our "very different" climate we experience here in the central ranges. Our forecasts do not supersede the official forecasts issued by the Government Bureau of Meteorology ,Melbourne. Our forecasts are made on an amateur basis  and Australian Sky and Weather takes no responsibility or liability for weather forecasts either correct or incorrect......AUSSKY welcomes any comments and contributions for improvements to our specialised weather outlooks..  

27th November - 5th December 2014

Overview

A large high pressure centre passes south of Victoria through Thursday to Saturday, a broad trough will approach Victoria Saturday then consolidate across inland southeast Australia from Sunday to Tuesday. Another high pressure builds into the Australian Bight later Monday to Tuesday pushing a milder south/southeast maritime airstream across Victoria from Tuesday. The approaching trough from Saturday will increase instability generating increasing cloud and showers/storms from Sunday to at least next  Tuesday.

Daily weather expectations.

Thursday 27/Nov.

Cold morning with patchy cloud, then a warmer afternoon with long sunny breaks, south/southeast winds fresh at times, early morning lows 4 to 6C afternoon highs 18 to 21C

Friday 28/Nov.
Cold early with patchy low cloud and mist, lighter winds today, a warm afternoon with sunny periods. Early morning lows around 3 to 5C afternoon highs 22 to 25C.

Saturday 29/Nov.
Early mist, chilly early then warmer, light winds, long sunny periods, early morning lows 4 to 7C afternoon highs 24 to 27C.

Sunday 30/Nov.
Early mist then sunny spells, light winds, increasing cloud in the afternoon, chance of showers after 1400hrs, chance of thunder, some showers may be heavy in places. Early morning lows 9 to 11C, afternoon highs 24 to 28C

Monday 1/Dec...Welcome Summer !.
Partly cloudy, humid, occasional sunny intervals, a few showers likely, light winds tending southeast later,scattered thunderstorms with heavy rain a risk, light winds. Early morning lows 12 to 13C afternoon highs 23 to 25C

Tuesday 2/Dec.
Areas of low cloud or hill fog early, a few showers still a chance of thunder, light winds shifting south/southeast and freshening, humid, milder later. Early morning temps 10 to 12C, afternoon highs 20 to 22C

Wednesday 3/Dec.
Areas of low cloud and mist,,patchy drizzle and light showers, south/southeast winds occasionally fresh, sunny intervals mor likely after 1200hrs especially northern parts. Early morning lows 9 to 10C afternoon highs 19 to 21C

Thursday 4/Dec.
Areas of low cloud/mist early then patchy cloud with sunny intervals, fresh south/southeast winds.  Early morning lows 7 to 9C afternoon highs 19 to 22C

Friday 5/Dec.
early mist and low cloud then sunny, occasional fresh southeast winds becoming lighter through the afternoon, early morning temps 5 to 7C afternoon highs 21 to 23C

Outlook for weekend 6/ and 7/Dec.
Becoming warmer with winds tending north, increasing risk of afternoon showers and a chance of thunder especially Sunday, then cooling for period 8/ Dec to 10/Dec.


Watch for updates....Australian Sky and Weather Trentham Victoria.

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Australian Sky and Weather....Trentham Vic

SUMMARY OF RECENT RAINFALL

Previous 7 day and current rainfall data for the Central Ranges and surrounding areas (courtesy Bureau of Meteorology)
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV60174.html

 

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Australia IR Loop  Click for current observations   Vic radar

Climate of the Victorian Central Ranges

The Central Ranges area extends from Ballarat in the west to Kilmore in the east and from Kyneton in the north to Gisborne in the south generally incorporating the Central Ranges above 400m.

The area is normally referred to in the official forecasts as the North Central, however AUSSKY wishes to present a specialised experimental forecast for the areas previously outlined where climatic conditions can be significantly different from northern parts of the formal North Central region. During winter months, the Central Ranges are susceptible to frost, ice and snow, often mixed with fog, while in summer months, considerable variation can occur in temperature between the southern slopes and the northern slopes separated by the ridgeline.  Another significant feature of the region are the local phenomena of strong ridge winds, especially in summer, associated with south and southeasterly low level winds. In respect to elevation, a good deal of the Central Ranges are in excess of 600m, between Ballarat and Woodend, with the highest points in this area approaching 900m south of Trentham and Bullarto. Another region of significant height is found at Mt Macedon, where elevations exceed 950m with Camels Hump rising to 1013m.

RAINFALL: The entire region exhibits a bias to winter maximum associated with orographic forcing of troughs and fronts during that season.  Minimum amounts of rainfall occur in the summer months, particularly in January to March. Overall, rainfall amounts range from near 700mm on the western margins, to reach near 1300mm at Blue Mountain south of Trentham. East of the Trentham Rise, annual rainfall declines to reach near 850mm at Woodend and approaching 700mm at Kilmore. The Mt Macedon Ranges exert a local influence with the summit approaching 1000mm, and Mt Towrong approaching 1200mm annually.  To the north of the ridge, rainfall amounts decline rather rapidly, with 750mm average at Kyneton declining to 575mm at Redesdale only 30 or so km to the northeast. During wintertime there can be prolonged periods of fog and drizzle on and north of the main ridge with cloud rapidly breaking to the south. During the summer months, persistent south or southeasterly winds bring drizzle and fog to the southern slopes and ridgetops especially at night and early morning. In the summer period cloud rapidly breaks to the north of the ridge to reveal fine and clear weather.

SNOWFALLS: The entire region is susceptible to occasional light snowfalls in winter, mainly between the months of May and September. Most falls are generally light and rather insignificant, and are of a snowshower nature. Most snowfalls are associated with cold Southern Maritime or modified Polar airmasses.  Heavier falls are occasionally experienced usually every 2 - 5 years when the entire region may be covered to a depth of between 2 and 5cm. At Trentham (elevation 700m), a 40 year mean average occurrence is about 4 snow days per year, mainly occurring in July and August. At higher altitudes, snowfall occurrences increase rapidly above 900m. At Mt Macedon (1003m), snowfalls can be recorded on 15-20 days a year with snow lying occurring on 10-15 days a year.  It is estimated that 1 annual snow day occurs near 500m elevation.

FROST:The entire region is susceptible to severe frost, generally between the months of May and September. Light frosts have been recorded in all months. The period of minimum frost incidence occurs between January and March. Temperatures will approach -5C on several occasions each winter, but there can be significant variation over short distance in the severity of frost. Extreme minimums have been near -10C - Mt Macedon with -9C and Trentham - 7.5C  A feature of the region in winter is the occasional appearance of Black Ice, mainly occurring at elevations above 500m. The occurrence of black ice can cause major traffic disruption across the region.

THUNDERSTORMS: A 40 year record taken at Trentham (24 hour), indicates a mean annual average there of 20 thunderdays. This is a reasonable representation of the Central Ranges.  Annual thunderday incidence is extremely variable from year to year. Severe thunderstorms with hail, strong winds occur annually, mainly between September and March. Tornadoes have been reported on rare occasions. Some of Australia's most severe tornadic activity has occurred on the northern slopes of the Central Ranges.

Thanks to The Bureau of Meteorology, SSEC Wisconsin and the CSIRO, for allowing use of the images and information.

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