Most current situation analysis (AEST = UTC +11) 

AUSTRALIAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

30th January 2010

OVERVIEW: The Australian Branch of the ITCZ appears as a sub tropical trough extending from lower southwest WA to the eastern Pilbara then heading northeast to the southeast Gulf to merge with TC Olga now heading south into interior Queensland, the ITCZ then heads east from the Gulf to the north Coral Sea. he main factor across the NE tropics remains with TC Olga that briefly intensified to near Cat 2 status overnight before crossing the coast southeast of Mornington Island, now located over land and bringing heavy rain/floods. 

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER LOCATIONS: TC Olga is located near Normanton and drifting southward, retains good low level convergence and efficient upper divergence, central core pressure estimated near 985hpa and filling slowly, developed a prominent spiral pattern overnight, a broad outflow mid and upper moisture plume affects most of Queensland. From today the central core is anticipated to move into interior Queensland and towards western NSW bringing widespread rain and storms over the next several days.

Victorian Central Ranges Weather Discussion

......including Ballarat, Kilmore, Romsey, Kyneton, Tylden, Trentham, Woodend, Daylesford, Blackwood, Macedon, Gisborne and surrounds....

Specially presented weather discussion on the Victorian central ranges presented by AUSSKY which will include a prognosis on expected weather and a discussion of past weather.

Click here to go to the Central Ranges weather discussion

Upper Analysis Charts - 850hPa

850hPa chart: This analysis chart provides temperatures at 1500m ASL (850hPa) across the Australian region. The coldest air is shown from purple (in the south) through blue and green, and then warmer air is shown in yellow and oranges, and then purple again over the continent (as the hottest). Updated twice a day showing conditions at 0Z & 12Z.

AUSTRALIAN CONVECTIVE WEATHER DISCUSSION

9th February 2010

OVERVIEW: A vast area of relative high pressure extends from south of Esperance to south of Tasmania then into the Tasman Sea. North of this high pressure belt a broad easterly surface airmass affects southern Australia and gradually merging with seasonal low pressure across the tropical northern inland. Troughs extends from southwest WA to the interior NW of WA then into a broad surface low pressure over the interior of the NT. A northern trough pokes east from the NT low to the northern tropical coastline of QLD then off into the Coral Sea. Another slow moving trough appears from central SA to southwest Victoria. A weakening upper low is located over northern NSW/Southern QLD and is also associated with a weak trough extending from NW NSW to northern Victoria.

NORTHERN TERRITORY: Despite the presence of a broad surface low over the interior north mid and upper airmass characteristics are rather dry, however diurnal heating will trigger a few storms mainly northern areas today.. Isolated or scattered storms across the Top End and Northern interior mainly western parts after 1400hrs ....isolated severe storms a risk. Isolated storms over the western Central interior and far western Alice region after 1500hrs. Isolated storms a risk over the near coastal southwest Gulf after 1500hrs.

WEST AUSTRALIA: Showers and storms affecting most of West Australia today....Local severe storms over the lower Central interior/Eastern Wheatfield's/Goldfields/Southern central and Southeast...activity mainly after 1300hrs. Isolated storms along the near coastal lower west coast between Carnarvon and east of Perth after 1400hrs.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Isolated storms over the far NE corner after 1400hrs. Isolated or scattered storms appearing along the western border after 1400hrs. Isolated storms a risk over the Flinders Ranges and upper/lower Murray after 1500hrs.

TASMANIA: Areas of mid and high cloud associated with a mid level trough..isolated showers and a risk of brief thunder mainly central interior.

VICTORIA: Isolated storms a risk today mainly western/along the divide and eastern areas mainly alpine east, slight risk of a storm along sea breeze convergence lines in the south.

NEW SOUTH WALES: Isolated or scattered storms in most areas today, slow moving large multicells a risk through the interior with isolated heavy falls...most activity later than 1400hrs.

QUEENSLAND: Scattered storms over Cape York/eastern Gulf/NE interior/North tropical mountains and coastal/Central interior mainly east/Eastern Sub tropics/lower eastern western interior/Southwest interior/Central south and southeast mainly later than 1300/1400hrs, isolated severe storms a risk.

500hPa chart: The contours are the 18,500' (500 hPa) height field which indicates air flow at that level as well as the overall thickness of the atmosphere between the surface and the 500hPa pressure. The 540 line is marked in black. Updated daily at 0Z & 12Z.

Global Satellite Image

Lighting Detection - Australia

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Thanks to The Bureau of Meteorology, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, CSIRO, LF*EM Research, EUMETSAT, Dundee University, IGES, University of Otago, SSEC Wisconsin, Weatherzone and Unisys for allowing use of the images.

AusStorm will run from October 2009 - April 2010...We endeavour to fine tune these outlooks and provide actual expected conditions and update them in real time if possible.

AusStorm is a division of AUSSKY, along with Austrop, AusSnow and Melbourne Storm Chasers.