August 2000 Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report Page

Victoria
Date Name

Information
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30 Andrew McDonald Currently cool to cold (about 7C) with a light-moderate NW'ly forecast to strengthen today. LI's didn't look that good last night but AVN has been a little skewiff in the last week or so. Today is setting up a lot like the tornado day with rain cleared overnight leaving DP's possibly getting higher than 10C - max temps forecast to be 16C in Melbourne so the N half of the state should get to 17/18C....
29 ~2305AEDST Earth Tremor centred in Gippsland.  Felt in Melbourne at least from the outer eastern suburbs to Pattersons Lakes.
29 Miguel de Salas (Hobart) There are some very interesting towering cumulus going up all over the east coast of Tasmania. Some massive cells about to start growing an anvil any moment. (2:10 p.m.)

Also, there was a beautiful 'textbook' thunderstorm, possibly severe, out to sea beyond the Tasman Peninsula yesterday evening. I say possibly severe because it had nice strong updrafts, well defined edges, a nice, crisp, THICK anvil, and an overshooting top. They were also much, much taller than any other winter thunderstorms I've seen in Tassie before.
28 Ross Buscall (Rutherglen) Reported in the Border Mail - 28/8/2000
At least eight vehicles collided or were damaged when a freak hail storm hit the Hume Freeway bypass of Wangaratta late yesterday.

Sen-Constable John Knight, of Wangaratta, said a Wagga man, 30 and his wife, 29, escaped injury when the storm hit their Hyundai Excel sedan, forcing it off the northbound lane into a sapling, causing extensive damage to its doors.

Southbound drivers of another six vehicles also lost control in the same storm, less than 1km away. Sen-Constable Neville Gathercole, of Wangaratta, said a Melbourne family of two adults and two children escaped injury when their Ford station wagon collided into roadside railings.  He said it was difficult to determine how many vehicles were involved as some drivers had swapped details and left the area by the time police arrived.  Other vehicles involved included a Toyota campervan and a Nissan sedan, both of which had minor damage.

Sen-Constable Gathercole said the hail was isolated to a 1km stretch of the freeway near the 236km marker.

28 Clyve Herbert Greetings weather people.

Conditions across Victoria for the coming week should see a continuation of the rather prolonged cyclonic influence that has been with us for almost seven days. The persistent low atmospheric pressure is a result of a blocking high well south of Tasmania.

This blocking anticyclone is causing a split in the great Southern Ocean westerly belt, forcing large scale frontal and low pressure systems to divide west of the Australian Bight. The northern portions are moving east-northeast towards southeastern Australia and the southern portions are moving southeast towards Antarctica. The high pressure system south of Tasmania should persist for several days before weakening mid week and moving towards the east.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms and possible hail should persist across southern Victoria on Monday, with activity becoming more isolated Tuesday as a weak ridge moves across southeastern Australia. Another trough and cold front should reach Victoria late on Tuesday or early Wednesday with general showers.

With the weakening of the high south of Tasmania on Wednesday a new high is expected to strengthen west of the Bight and move eastward Thursday and Friday. Showers should persist across southern Victoria until at least Friday.

Temperatures should remain near to average until Wednesday then a colder trend is likely until Friday. Some light frosts may occur in northern areas from Thursday.

Snow falls should continue to affect mountain areas above 1400m. The snow line may descend closer to 1000m later Wednesday or Thursday.

RISKS: The arrival of colder air on Wednesday may see the development of a low closer to southeast Australia, with heavier rainfall across southern and mountain areas of Victoria. Local thunder may also accompany this trough Wednesday and Thursday.

Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services.

28 Andrew McDonald Victoria could be in for a week of thunderstorms at the rate we are going. The models have suggested almost every day this week has a chance of a thunderstorm developing somewhere in the state. Wednesday and Friday look to be the pick of the bunch and the lesser likely days being Tuesday and Thursday. After yesterday's nice winter display of storms we should see some storms amongst the developing rain today.
26 Nick Sykes A low and front is approaching from the west and will move through the SE over the weekend. This system is weakening as it approaches but with the already unstable conditions over the SE we will see an increase in showers in Western areas. I am interested in the possible interaction with this system and the low over the east. Cloud could be drawn into the low and help increase rainfall totals around the low. Also possible is another low pressure system developing on the western side of the low pressure complex. Overall this system continues to be amazing to watch with low pressure centres forming left right and centre.

Nick Sykes and SE Australia Satellite Images
26 Andrew McDonald Very interesting synoptic chart at 4am this morning. Nice trough and low sitting S of Adelaide (or closeish to there). Aviation forecasters haven't mentioned anyhting about this in the adelaide forecast or the melbourne forecast and it seems as though they may have underesitmated the potential of this system. The latest sat pic shows a nice area of thunderstorms just off the coast between Portland (in Vic) and Robe (in SA) which I would expect to eventually make landfall during today in the SW of Victoria. The trough (mentioned earlier) is responsible for these storms and I think there is a chance of showers and weak storms in the whole of W Vic today.
24 Jane ONeill ...have a look at the situation over Victoria & NSW at the moment. 5 circulations are identifiable so far - I'm wondering if anyone can find any more. ...
1. A very small localised low pressure area spotted just south of Wilson's Promontory earlier this morning is moving on a WWWNW path &currently in the Port Phillip Bay area (yes, that isn't a mistake....it is coming out of the east).
2. A small circulation in the SE of South Australia moving NNE.
3. A low pressure system off Moruya in the Tasman Sea moving to the SW, and
4. A circulation in central west NSW
All of these are working within a generalised area of low pressure over the whole of SE Australia which itself is circulating!!!!!! Congesting cumulus (Cj's) from the WNW, Ac moving from the E.
23 Nick Sykes

1 - Low: The low has now been located south of Adelaide for 2 days. Today it will move inland and consequently it is weaken. There has been a marked reduction in the number of showers associated with the low in the past 12 hours and winds will start to ease around SA. The low is continuing to produce weather though, and a distinct line of showers/rain is evident on the western side of the low. During the day as mixing occurs showers should increase around the low. This will also be true further east into Victoria and NSW. Instability will also make storms a chance in SE Australia today. The cold air mass over Victoria has resulted in a cold night and with increasing cloud, temperatures will struggle to reach double figures in many parts. Snowfalls will continue through the Alps with potential for good falls on the Southern Slopes in the coming day or so (see below)

2 - Developing Rain Event: The models are going for a low to develop in Eastern Bass Strait. This could see a potentially interesting rain event develop for Southern Victoria and Eastern Tasmania. A thick band of rain is located over Northern Tasmania and Southern Bass Strait at present and is producing rain. This near stationary rain band could potentially be wrapped around the developing low and bring heavy rain to Southern Victoria and Eastern Tasmania. Best falls will occur in NE Tasmania and areas exposed to SE winds in Southern Victoria, the Otways, East Gippsland. Heavy snow could occur on Southern Slopes if the cloud band is pushed further north.

Nick Sykes and SE Australia Satellite Images
23 Laurier Williams (NSW) With interesting happenings likely across NSW, Vic and Tas over the next day or two, I've begun putting large-scale plotted surface analyses on my site -- go to the obvious link at the top of http://ausweather.simplenet.com

I'll be trying to update them 3-hourly. Given the borderline nature of upper temperatures for snow/storms, the location of surface lows and nearby convergence will be important, and the plots should be useful.  Just a word of warning; the pressure/rainfall analysis is based only on the plots you see, so analysis over ocean areas, except where ship observations exists, is meaningless. However, the action most worth watching will be in Vic and southern NSW where the obs are good.

Some good storms in the far SE late morning, with Gabo Island reporting 17mm 9am to noon with the storm continuing at noon. Flinders Island AP had 50mm for the 24 hours to 9am and 13.6mm 9 to noon. 35mm fell between 2am and 9am, so that's 48.6 for the 10 hours to noon.

23 Clyve Herbert Something interesting happening over south east Australia over the next 12-24 hours. The impressive and now complex low near Mt Gambier is the primary centre, but it appears a small centre is developing just off the south east corner of NSW and VIC. This may result in the cloud band wrapping around the whole system and coming ashore across Victoria - possibly the central and eastern parts of the state. With a bit of luck may result in enhanced rainfall sufficient for useful runoff in those areas. Still overall all of south eastern Aust is well into the unstable level , so keep a lookout today.
21 Clyve Herbert Hello Weather Enthusiasts!

The pattern this week should see a cyclonic phase affecting southeastern Australia. The synoptic chart for Sunday was unusual with a strong high pressure centre well to the south of Tasmania; this will have the effect of causing low pressure systems to "piggyback" across the northern ridge of the high pressure and move closer to the southeastern Australian mainland.

A good strength trough and frontal system should move through southeastern Australia on Monday and Tuesday with widespread showers,tending to more prolonged rain, especially near mountain areas of Victoria. Most parts of Victoria should see some useful rain from this system, with some heavier falls near to the Dividing Range.

A marked cooling trend is expected from Tuesday to Thursday with snow developing across the Victorian alpine areas and some heavy falls may affect localities above 1400m. Some lighter falls may reach 800m later Tuesday or Wednesday. Conditions should remain rather cold for the remainder of the week to at least Friday with showers at times.

RISKS. The low pressure system moving across the Australian Bight Monday may be steered towards Victoria on Tuesday. If this occurs more enhancement of rainfall may affect southern Victoria. Thunderstorm activity may affect southern and mountain areas of Victoria later Monday to Wednesday.

Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services.

20 Laurier Williams - NSW Mmmm. This "cold outbreak" is looking curiouser and curiouser. As at the morning runs today, the overseas models are starting to come into line up to midweek. Unfortunately, the local product seems to have gone AWOL, with no LAPS or GASP based on 00 UTC this morning as of 7pmEST. So the following musing is based entirely on the latest EC, AVN, NOGAPS and JCU output.

They all agree that by Wednesday a monumental block will have developed with a high 600 to 800km S of Tasmania (EC has central pressure 1035!!, AVN 1030, NOGAPS 1026 and JCU 1027) and a fascinatingly broad area of low pressure over the entire SE mainland. The EC has a 1003 low off Gabo, but the 1008 isobar encompasses all NSW, Vic and much of the western Tasman. AVN and JCU are broadly similar, while NOGAPS holds the low back with a more pronounced centre near Mt Gambier.

The low is evident and substantial at all levels, and is vertically stacked. The jet at 200hPa splits around the block, with the northern limb over southern Qld and a substantial southern limb dipping down to 70S. There is no strong southerly jet -- as there was in the late May outbreak, and which is characteristic of true polar outbreaks -- but only a vast area of stagnant cold air over NSW and Victoria, with 500hPa temps of -30 to -33 over most of NSW, Vic and Tas.

The overseas models have been warming the lower levels on successive runs -- AVN and NOGAPS both have 850 temps on Wednesday between -1 and +3 over SE Australia, while JCU is between +1 and +3. Consequently, thickness estimates have risen a bit on earlier ones -- EC and AVN have all NSW/Vic/Tas/SE SA sub 540 but nowhere is sub 536; NOGAPS, for once, is bolder, with the same area sub-540, but most of eastern NSW sub-534, as less warm air is entrained into the held-back low.

Unusual weather breeds in unusual situations, and this is shaping up to be one. The upper temps are certainly cold enough for low level snow, but the more recent 850 temp estimates are making it less likely below, say, 1000m. On the other hand, with the models maintaining 500hPa temps at <-30, iincreased storm activity seems likely, possibly over an enormous area. I'm keenly awaiting the GASP, to see which way it has headed.
20 WATERSPOUT - Wonthaggi

Tony Middleton

 A waterspout which created a spinup on the sea surface and 2 more funnels were photographed between Cape Liptrap & Cape Wollemi near Wonthaggi around midday today.
18 TORNADO - Sunbury

Lindsay Smail

 Report on The Sunbury Connection as published in The Geelong News (15th August 2000)
17 S G (SA) I have just seen the 4-day forecast charts from the Bureau of Meteorology.  Looks like Adelaide could see its first very intense low pressure system for winter on Monday. Pressures below 990hpa.
17 Clyve Herbert For some reason not much interest has been given to the rather impressive low that has merrily eased its way across the Australian Bight towards South Aust this morning. The system has persisted now for nearly a week after passing into our region from the Indian Ocean on Monday. Although   now showing signs of weakening its still producing large rain areas across the southern region of SA and from time to time showed multiple centres. Still worth keeping an eye on.
16 Laurier Williams (NSW) The latest (00z) GASP continues to support the outbreak, so it's not a one-run wonder. At 00z Wednesday, it has a cold pool <528 over eastern Victoria, with 536 thickness and -2 850 temp well into northern NSW, and plenty of precipitation across NSW and Vic, presumably from the pre-frontal NWlys.

The latest (00z) MRF for Tuesday adds support, with strong ridging well south of Tasmania and -3 to -6 850 temps surging across southern WA/SA behind a 980hPa low west of Tasmania.
15 Rod Aikman (Bendigo) Some very nice cold air Cbs here this afternoon, one at around 16:00 produced a nice covering of hail. The stones were up to 8mm diameter and accumulated into piles against walls etc. My wife informed me that at the University, located in Flora Hill, lawns were completely covered in places, and there were still hailstones piled on the top of the car boot when she arrived home just after 17:00. The clouds were glaciated down to very low levels, with snow streaks obscuring views of the main Cbs.
Temperature had fallen to 4.2 deg by 18:00.
15 Andrew McDonald I don't think it has ben analysed or if it will be but I think there may be a low formed / developing SE of Port Phillip Heads heading ENE. It can been seen on Melbourne Broad radar currently sitting S of Westernport Bay.

Very cold air is crossing Victoria this evening and tonight and we should see snowfalls down to about 500m tonight (Mt Dandenong, Ballarat, and maybe Kinglake) and flurries possible to lower levels. Hail is also likely with plenty of large cold air showers and no doubt storms moving over the state as we speak. I wouldn't be surprised to see 30cm of snow on the alps tonight too which is great news for the skiiers.
14 Clyve Herbert Hello Weather Enthusiasts!

A weak cold front should advance into Victoria on Monday night bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. A more substantial front should reach Victoria on Tuesday pm, accompanied by a marked field of cold air which should spread showers across most of Victoria and SE Aust with local hail and thunderstorms especially in coastal areas.

Snow could develop on the ranges down to 600 metres with possible snow flurries to 400 metres on Tuesday - Wednesday.  Some of these showers may be locally heavy with moderate falls possible in parts of southern Victoria. Moderate to good snowfalls can be expected across northeastern high alpine areas.

The increasing cold should lead to local frosts in northern Victoria through to the end of the week. A high pressure ridge is expected to build southwards from SA on Wednesday with increased pressure through Victoria and a tendency for more settled conditions Thursday - Friday.

An increased risk of frosts is then likely in southern Victoria Thursday and Friday mornings. At this stage it appears a milder trend will develop on Saturday - Sunday with winds northeast to northerly.

RISKS: The interaction of cold air over SE Australia on Tuesday and the existence of an upper low over Bass Strait may result in a deepening low pressure centre over the Tasman Sea on Wednesday. This would enhance SE to southerly airflow over SE Australia with the possibility of cold conditions even extending into northern NSW.

ADDITIONAL RISKS: A rather impressive cloud band associated with the low pressure system SW of Perth (Monday) may move east in spite of its current southeasterly trend. Update later in the week.

Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services.

10 TORNADO

Clyve Herbert

 What a fantastic stroke of luck this whole event has been with what now appears to have been a multiple tornadic episode across central Victoria, that this Doppler apparatus was at that time in use. I agree that although initially I suspected a severe multicell, the fact that a sustained updraft (rotating) for almost one hour, would most probably categorise this storm system as a supercell, possibly of the "winter" type with rather low vertical extent . I believe the tops were between 28.000 and 32.000ft although this is not yet confirmed, the 300hpa level was -50c not too bad, again the lack of mid level shear appears to take some by surprise however I know of other tornadic outbreaks here in Aus that have also occurred with weak shear.
10 TORNADO - Trentham

Rod Aikman (Bendigo)

 From the Bendigo Advertiser 10/8/2000

'IT SOUNDED LIKE A JET ENGINE'

Heather Gray said she did not panic when she heard what sounded like a roaring jet engine approaching her East Trentham home on Tuesday night. But as the sound got louder, she decided to hold onto the back door, just in case. She had moved about three metres when bricks crashed down her chimney, shattering her stove and scattering debris across the kitchen floor. That was when she looked out the window and saw sheets of metal and tree branches being thrown in every direction by the freak tornado which hit the area late on Tuesday. "I went numb," she said.

Frozen by fear, she watched as the tornado stripped the roof off her house, hurtling pieces of it into paddocks up to one kilometre away. "It was a noise I can't describe, like a jet engine," Mrs Gray said. "I was okay until the bricks came down the chimney. I didn't panic, but froze because I didn't know what else was going to come down, or if bricks were going to come down through the kitchen ceiling.  "With that I turned out to look out the front of the house and there was just iron everywhere."

She said the terrifying ordeal lasted no more than 90 seconds, as the storm left the property to cut a path of destruction through nearby paddocks and bushland. The Grays' home was the only building damaged by the twister. Mrs Gray's husband, John, said he was in Melbourne having a haircut when the tornado struck.  "We've been here five years, and I thought we were just starting to get on top of things, but now it's back to square one," he said.

Yesterday, the Grays' property was a hive of activity, with friends and neighbours pitching in to help in the clean-up. Among them was Eric Thiele, who stood on his verandah watching in disbelief as the storm cut a swathe through bushland just metres from his home. Witnesses describe the funnel of the tornado repeatedly lifting and "touching down" as it passed through their properties, between Tylden and Trentham.

"I was watching it come up through the bush, and I couldn't believe I was seeing trees physically breaking off," Mr Thiele said. He said he was convinced the twister was headed straight for his house, but it passed through the back garden, leaving the building unscathed. "I'm not one to get frightened easily, but, I tell you what, I was pretty bloody nervous," he said.
10 Nick Sykes Just been browsing through the models and it looks like we could be in for another round of storms early next weak. NGP is going for a nice looking trough around Tuesday. MRF is also supporting this scenario. The models are also hinting at some upper level support with a decent jet over us. The next GASP run be interesting to watch, the current one has a trough developing over inland WA, dragging some nice warm air south. Well it could be the Sunbury tornado still talking but I think there is a good chance of some storms around Tuesday (15th).
10 TORNADO - Sunbury Various images that are relevant to the Sunbury tornado
9 Kevin Phyland (Wycheproof) Went up to the top of Mt. Wycheproof (43 m above surrounding plain <g>) to take some happy snaps of a building puppy to the south-west about 3.45 p.m. yesterday. Got some nice structure shots and was impressed by the speed at which the Cbs were developing. No lightning observed however and the storms seemed to be building much more impressively to the east and south.
9 Peter Matters (Broadford) Channel 9 8.30 news this morning talked of a tornado, showing a pic of a definite funnel. The report did not say where it was, and the pic was taken from a tall building. Broadford received 23mm last nite between 6.45/10pm with a few cg's and heaps of cc's.
9 TORNADO - Sunbury

Simon Cottrill (Tyabb)

 NINEMSN (Re:Sunbury)
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/01_national/story_7808.asp

HERALD-SUN (Re:Sunbury)
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/hs0810.htm
9 TORNADO - Sunbury

David Jones (Box Hill)

 According to eye-witness reports, http://www.abc.net.au/news/weather/weath-9aug2000-1.htm   it appears the damage in Sunbury last night was associated with a tornado.

Have to say I can't recall seeing such a dramatic wintertime electrical display in Melbourne before. At its peak, there would have been a visible discharge every 5 seconds or so in Box Hill. The wind was also impressive (down drafts), with gusts which I would estimate to be around 35 knots. All up 10mm from the first (major) storm with some small hail.
9 Alex Hyles (Abbotsford) Rain was so heavy for a short period that the gutters were full to overflowing with water across the roads, and a car was reported to have floated across Johnston Street and into the window of a shop on the southern side of the road.
9 Lindsay Smail (Geelong) Last night's storm through Sunbury and Melb happened at the same time as a much smaller, narrower band through North Geelong, the eastern suburbs and Bellarine Peninsula. To date I've heard of no major damage or interesting sightings. Rainfall was between 5-10 mm over most parts and hail around 1 cm was reported at Clifton Springs. Geelong AWS, south of the city only got 3 mm, Avalon (North) 1 mm
8 Debbie Parker (Boronia) I just had a great hail shower go through at Boronia - 9 -10mm hail stones.
8 TORNADO - Sunbury

Jane ONeill (Bayswater)

 I wondered while driving along the Eastern Freeway east of Doncaster Road at about 6pm at the featureless base of the cell above me and the curve at the edge of the base of the cloud to my east. It looked as if I was following a gust front...maybe I was at the eastern edge of the cell that dropped the tornado in Sunbury, in which case what I was looking at appeared to be laminar.  Lightning was behind me at the time, there was only light rain.
8 TORNADO - Sunbury

Andrew McDonald (Greensborough)

 

 Plenty of speed shear has allowed some of these storms to be particularly long living. Probably severe multicells. The cell which effected Sunbury first pooped up on radar NW of Daylesford and it went from nothing to pink in just 30 mins (this was at about 3:30pm). From here it pulsed in and out of the highest intensity (red) for about 30 mins and then after that it remained "in the red" for a very long time with the cell eventually passing just N of the CBD. It continued to maintain its intensity while tracking over the E and SE suburbs and finally dissipated not all that long ago (about 8pm). The trough which caused this is now heading out to the east with a severe storm advice still out for the Northern Country. Thunderstorms are forecast to continue until the actual front passes and there is also a chance of storms W of the front for a while as well. The front is estimated to be crossing Melbourne at about 11pm tonight.
8 TORNADO - Sunbury

Nick Sykes (Clayton)

 Well Melbourne has just had what I would described the most lightning active August storm I have ever seen. There were CG's, double CG's, an anvil crawler and some very loud boom thunder. Lightning was at a rate of better than 1 per 5 seconds at some stages. This is very unusual for Melbourne storms at this time of year when you usually get one bolt and that's it. This wasn't a cold air cell, this was more a summer type set-up, mild northerly winds and a trough moving in from the west. Some of the early development today made me think it was summer.

A severe thunderstorm warning is still current for Melbourne as this cell moves through. There have been reports of damage, just caught the end of a story on the news, will give more info as it comes to hand.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

NEWS FLASH - FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Priority
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Melbourne Metropolitan Area

Issued at 6:41pm on Tuesday the 8th of August 2000

Damage from a Severe Thunderstorm has been reported from Sunbury at 5.40pm today. At 6.30pm the storm was near Albert Park moving southeast at 40km/h towards Dandenong. People in the south eastern suburbs are warned that this storm can produce damaging wind, large hail and flash flooding.
8 TORNADO - Sunbury

Andrew McDonald (Greensborough)

 

 Terry Ryan from the Melbourne Bureau was on 774 and suggested wind gusts to 150km/h were possible this afternoon. 774 3LO (local radio) also had people ring in earlier reporting funnel/spout cloud type features (his words) in Sunbury AND near Ballarat as well. This would initially instil thoughts of tornadoes (note the plural) into people minds (mine too - i take back what i said before about it being unlikely). They intend to investigate tomorrow.  I'll keep you all updated as information comes to hand.
8 TORNADO - Sunbury

Clyve Herbert (Leopold)

 I have had a look at some footage and a rather spectacular photo of the Sunbury tornado, the system appears to be a severe multicell with very vigorous pulses , there is evidence of cold advection at 500 to 300hpa and progressive surface warming through the day. the photograph appeared in the 2nd edition of the Sun Herald and distinctly shows a good sized rotating wall cloud with a nice funnel embedded. The video sequence shows the funnel almost on the ground and Andrew McDonald has advised that debris was being lifted at the surface.The BOM has rated the event at F0 or F1 and indicated the track was about 9klm long and on the ground for about 10min.
8 TORNADO - Trentham

Clyve Herbert (Leopold)

 I noticed on radar at 1600 a severe cell near Daylesford about 80ks north west of Mel - this appears to have been the start of the whole process it had what appears to be a notch inflow on the north west flank which may have been a bounded weak echo region.
8 TORNADO - Trentham

Clyve Herbert (Leopold)

 Nice looking multicell south east of Daylesford at 1600hrs another cell to north reaching 100mm+ has a what appears to be a clear notch incursion on the west side.A careful study of the top showed some overshoot, tops appear better than 30.000ft
8 TORNADO

Chris Gribben (Richmond)

 The day was quite mild and had a feel to it as early as 10-11am. During the early afternoon a few nice looking TCu towers shot up over the bay so the atmosphere was conditionally unstable. Unfortunately I was at work so a chase then was impossible, but as my work involves driving I could keep half (or maybe both <g>) my eye on the sky to see what was developing. Towards the NW as I drove over the Burnley street ramp I could see very "scatty" Cb and TCu tops but they had a great look to them none the less.

My driving stint finished at around 3pm or so and I had to work inside for the next 45 mins, when I went back outside to load a truck I was awestruck to see a dark Cb anvil stretching across a fair bit of the western horizon. I wanted to leave immediately but couldn't, lucky for me I only live 2mins from my work. At 5pm I literally ran out the door and raced home to have a quick look at radar and an even quicker chat on IRC to see where the best way to go was. Although suggestions were made to go towards Seymour, I thought the cells were moving too quickly for me to get up there in time and so decided to head out the Western Hwy towards Ballarat.

I left home about 5.15pm and after using some colourful language driving through the city (don't ppl know that others may want to get a close up look of a storm?!?!?! <g>), and helped by my knowledge of Melb roads to which I am thankful to the job I do <g>, I made reasonably good time out through Nth Melb, past Flemington and towards Sunshine. The lightning by this stage was every 3-4 secs to my priority was to get to a vantage point. I could see flashes over the top of buildings and tried to think of the best way to get to Highpoint shopping centre in the mid NW suburbs. I got to Epsom rd and then the rain started pelting down, huge drops combined with awesome pulsing lightning in the distance. A left turn into Maribynong Rd saw a further increase in the rain and then the great, but also scary sound, of clunk clunk on top of the car!!!!!! The hail had me excited and it was 1-2cms in size. I must have got the edge of the precipitation core because it didn't last very long. The driving conditions had become very hazardous by now so somewhat luckily was close to Highpoint and cover by now and as the rain had managed to get yet harder I positioned myself undercover with a view towards the N (Melb AP) and NE (Broadmeadows direction). The lightning was truly amazing for August, and the video camera was surprisingly steady considering the adrenalin that was present. The sound we all adore, great deep booming long lasting thunder was abound and I was in heaven. The rain was more like something you would see in the tropics during the wet and though there was quite a bit of breeze I saw nothing severe wind wise. The storms were moving quite quickly and so after 10-15 mins I decided to follow the cell into the city. Problem was that there had been considerable flooding on the roads which obviously slowed down the traffic. I saw some huge strikes on the way home but by the time I got back to Richmond the lightning was well off into the distance and starting to get obscured. Through the evening very heavy showers and some thunderstorms affected most suburbs and I saw a few more strikes over about St Kilda at 9pm or so I think. A great day and not too bad a chase either, hope it is a precursor to the rest of the season.
8 TORNADO A summary of information received to date on yesterday's Sunbury tornado in Melbourne's NW suburbs will appear here later tonight.
5 Clyve Herbert Hello 'weather people',

The present phase of high pressure across southeastern Australia will decline this weekend, and be replaced by a cyclonic phase with sporadic cold frontal activity for most of the week.

A weak slow-moving low west of Adelaide should remain slow-moving and eventually become absorbed into an approaching major trough on Sunday. A strong long wave trough west of Perth (Sat 5th) should move to the east and approach southeast Australia later Sunday and Monday. This cloud band is showing evidence of major cyclogenesis southwest of WA on Saturday and a strong cold air field will follow across the Bight Sunday.

The trough as it approaches Victoria on Sunday should be accompanied by a large cloud band and rain areas with moderate to some heavier totals in western and mountain regions. Moderate to good falls should also affect most other parts of Victoria except the far east. The remainder of the week should see sporadic frontal activity with increasing cold and snow developing along the dividing range from later Monday, with a colder trend affecting most of southeastern Australia for the remainder of the week to at least Thursday or Friday, when a new anticyclone should start to stabilise conditions for the weekend of the 12.08.2000.

RISKS: A rather deep cold air field may be accompanied by snow and sleet to lower levels i.e 450m to 700m from late Tuesday and Wednesday. This cold air outbreak may also generate the possibility of further cyclogenesis on Wednesday west of Tasmania.

Frosts may become more frequent from Wednesday over sheltered northern parts of Victoria.

Sporadic frontal passages may be accompanied by locally strong to gale force winds throughout the week. Local thunderstorms are possible especially from Wednesday within the expected cold air field.

Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services.

2/8/2000 Andrew McDonald The ridge of high pressure currently sitting over us will allow for some cold mornings with widespread fog and frost likely tomorrow and maybe again Wednesday.  The strengthening of the NW'ly could push temperatures up to 16 or 17C on Thursday.  The high should gradually move away as the weekend approaches and there is a slight chance of some rain/showers on Friday as a weakening front/trough slides SE in the dominant NW'ly airstream. The next high will ridge in and establish itself in a very similar position to the current system, potentially giving us another 4 to 5 days of cool to cold mornings and fine and mild afternoons until mid next week.
30/7/2000 Clyve Herbert Hello 'weather people', The rather spectacular cold outbreak last week brought snowfall from Victoria to far north NSW between 400m and 800m and sea level snow to Tasmania, also useful rainfall to parts of southern Victoria.

This week is shaping up to be under an anticyclonic phase with a tendency for the high pressure belt to persist across southern Australia and for occasional frontal activity to be weak.

A rather large but interesting high level cloud band over SE Australia on Sunday (31st) should gradually dissipate and move to the east on Monday. High pressure should then establish across SE Australia on Monday and persist to at least late Wednesday when  another weak frontal system may reach SE Australia, with the possibility of light showers.

We may then see a decline in anticyclone control from Thursday with the appearance of more active fronts towards Friday and the coming weekend.

Temperatures should remain close to normal throughout the week . Light winds may see the development of fogs and light frosts at times with fogs more likely in southern Victoria and frosts favouring the northern parts of the state. At this stage no significant rain is expected.

RISKS: The upper cloud band across SE Australia this weekend (31st) is associated with a weakening front and an upper disturbance. Although this system appears to be dissipating there is a possibility of further upper disturbances moving across from central WA to SA mid-week. If development of this system occurs it may generate more general areas of light rain across SA and NSW with a slight risk for Victoria from Wednesday to Friday.

Clyve Herbert and Geelong Weather Services.

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