It's the perfect storm chaser's breakfast this morning - AcCas everywhere to the north of Melbourne, and an aviation forecast like this...
MOIST SFC NE/N'LY FLOW. FRONT FCST NEAR PORTLAND 08Z. SCT SHRA. ISOL TSRA, PARTICULARLY AFTER 02Z NEAR RANGES AND IN SOUTHWEST.

Keep an eye on the Melbourne webcam - unfortunately one of the directions it doesn't face is north but west is starting to look interesting too...... http://webcam.omni.net.au/ Now all we need is patience and shear!!!

Jane ONeill (Melbourne)

Should see storms over the metro area this arvo with CAPE's around 500 or so and LI's of -1 to -2 over Melbourne.  Keep me updated as to what develops today.

Andrew McDonald (Melbourne)

Last night's (12Z) MML sounding showed pretty flat lapse rates. Taking Adelaide as a pseudo-upstream sounding (with NW'y mid-level Melbourne winds), the lapse-rate story is the same.
For a change Melbourne has some moisture. :)
I might just assume that some incredibly cold upper-level air is hiding out over the ocean, waiting to be advected in ...

Harald Richter (Norman, Oklahoma)

Some beauties just NW and W of Geelong.

Lindsay Smail (Geelong)

Hey there - had a quick look to the W and it looks OK - not all that good but for 11:30am its not too shabby. Seems to be a warm layer (cap) at about 600mb maybe a little closer to 500mb. I'd be interested to see a sounding today. Seems like mid level moisture has increased a little overnight but not much. Either that or it is cooling a little in the middle layers. Lapse rate might be a little steeper today with surface temperatures a little higher than yesterday.

Weak cap also at about 6000ft or about 850mb too i think - keeping this under control for a while longer yet. Thing out to the W has broken it though and ranges will fire soon I'm pretty sure.

Andrew McDonald (Melbourne)

.....and I just couldn't resist - have just been up the hill in Kew & taken some photos of the turkeys...

Jane ONeill (Melbourne)

Photo - J ONeill (ASWA Archive)

Photo - J ONeill (ASWA Archive)

I'm not sure if you're interested but these photos were taken from St.Kilda  looking out to the west. Shots taken at 11.45.

John Powell (Melbourne)

After having discussed all of the signs - keep your eyes peeled for possible severe thunderstorms in Victoria this afternoon - ratings - western area rating 6/10, ranges 5/10, Melbourne 4/10!!!!

Jane ONeill (Melbourne)

Good call Jane!!! Just a shame you are in a training session right now, I hope it has windows, or maybe it's good if it doesn't, or you won't be paying attention <g>

(PS, I don't know how the t'storm warning about be issued at 1600 Friday, as it's only 1400 EDT!)

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
NEWS FLASH - FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Priority Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the Melbourne Metropolitan area.
Issued at 1245 on Friday the 25th of February 2000
Thunderstorms have been identified on radar over the western suburbs of Melbourne. These storms are moving slowly southeast and are likely to produce heavy rain leading to flash flooding.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
VICTORIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
Thunderstorm Warning
Issued at 1600 on Friday the 25th of February 2000 for the Metropolitan Area

Thunderstorms are likely over the Melbourne metropolitan area this afternoon and evening.

Anthony Cornelius (Brisbane)

Not my call, Anthony....it was Clyve Herbert's ....and it came from him while on holidays in Queensland!!!!!!!

Clyve thought early this morning that there would be storms today in Victoria, and then mentioned that he thought they'd go severe even before I knew there'd been a warning!!!

10/10 to Clyve!!!!!!

Jane ONeill (Melbourne)

Just heard a radio report of flash flooding in Werribee (30km SW of Melbourne).

ON the radar it looks like an isolated cell which is tracking ESE (in other words, not much chance of chasing it unless you're in a boat). I suspect it won't be the last one we see today, though.

A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued (as well as a common, garden variety thunderstorm warning, which, showing a remarkable degree of anticipation, is time-stamped 1600!).

Dewpoints generally 18-21, dry-bulb has been to 32 (which won't do the cause of a monthly record any harm). Last night's min was 19.6, a record 9th consecutive night over 19 (with a 10th likely tonight).

Blair Trewin (Melbourne)

Storms firing up all over Victoria at the moment - in addition to the Werribee storm mentioned earlier (now falling apart), there are lines/ clusters over the eastern Latrobe Valley, along the Vic/SA border west of Nhill, and in east Gippsland and the Monaro north of Orbost. The last of these looks particularly impressive, but is in very remote country.

Also plenty of more scattered activity, especially in the south.

Blair Trewin (Melbourne)

Hey there - the one to the W has been going for nearly an hour is not more and has very heavy rain - wouldn't be surprised if it was red on radar - didn't see any lightning or hear thunder but looks like it will pass about 5km S of the city centre. There is light rain falling from the anvil as well which is fairly thick. Tops of these look to be about 30,000ft. Another cell is probably down nearer to Altona which has developed into a CB in the last 45mins and has some fairly heavy rain shafts which would prolly be 20-40mm/h.

Andrew McDonald (Melbourne)

I was off duty on Friday but went flying out at Coldstream later in the afternoon - just doing circuits. Completed 2 circuits ok then just to the east of the airfield the sky went horribly black and I had to complete the 3rd circuit on the other side of the field. Landed ok but I had to stay in the aircraft for about 20 minutes to avoid being soaked. The dew point was about 20 degrees before I took off.

Ray Kollmorgen (Melbourne)

Just got back from a quick little chase through Emerald to Belgrave. There is some major activity over the hills up north. Towers popping up everywhere. There appeared to be a cluster line of numerous cells developing. As Andrew said, there appears to be a cap at about 6,000ft or about 500-600HPa which is blocking a lot of vertical activity. However, considering the strength of the updraft (I have yet seen the LI's for today), it appears that in the main cluster line, tops are reaching above this point, (you were right Andrew!). There is a great deal of low level stratocumulus which hinders the possibility of observing vertical activity in some spots.

Dean Sgarbossa (Melbourne)

Bit of a storm just came through Kilsyth (outer eastern suburbs of Melbourne), 6mm of rain in 12 minutes between 8.02pm and 8.14pm, not very electrically active, all cc stuff and less than one flash per minute. Its now moving away to the east.

Dane Newman (Melbourne)

Managed to find myself in the right place at the right time riding home around 7.15 this evening - had a cell pass over the top whilst hiding out in a doorway in Carlton, then got onto the back of it and followed it all the way home. Is this the first time a bicycle has been used as a chase vehicle? Nothing severe - probably 10mm in 10 minutes, at a guess, some nice squalls at the start and some nuisance flooding - but it looked good, especially from the rear. No camera, unfortunately! (Remarkably warm water, too - went in up to my ankles in a couple of puddles and it felt like sticking them in the bath). I can't recall EVER seeing a DP of 23 in Melbourne.

Blair Trewin (Melbourne)

I just got back from the city of Melbourne where numerous Cb towers were easily visible over the north-eastern areas. Travelling down  to the city by train allowed me to witness many different congestus and various CB Calvus formations. Once I arrived in the city, it was noticeable that there was a developing storm overhead which appeared to be stationary or travelling extremely slow. It continued to develop for approximately 20 minutes until the distinguishable sign of a gust front was approaching. At this time I was walking to the Tennis Centre when the gusta came right overhead producing strong wind gusts.

Dean Sgarbossa (Melbourne

I think I saw this same gust front here at Clayton, about 20km southeast of the city. It was about 8pm or so, and from my window I saw it to the northwest. I rushed outside and took a few shots, but as it passed overhead it seemed to lose its form. Only a minor breeze kicked up as it  passed, so it's ooomph had obviously been lost.

Rob Goler (Melbourne)

It's been a pretty nice couple of days in Victoria after a pretty uninteresting summer compared to the last one.

Rainfall totals from slow moving storms have been in the 20-40mm / 24hour region. Castlemaine - 32mm, Coldstream - 26mm, Kilmore - 24mm, Laverton - 22mm, Maryborough - 40mm, Moorabbin - 26mm, Bayswater - 21mm.

Lightning was also seen for the first time in a while east of Mt Dandenong - but I have still to hear thunder since 27th December.

I'd shot out of the office at 1130 up the local hill to take a couple of pics and then spent the rest of the afternoon being intensely, screamingly frustrated because I could see the development outside and I was stuck with a computer training course for the sales reps...and btw, who's the idiot who made up the "all sales reps will be in the office on Friday between 3 & 5pm" rule??????? - oh, yeah - that was me, so I couldn't really break my own rule....mind you the noises in my head were pretty loud by the time I escaped at 5pm (I just hope no-one else could hear them or I would have been committed <g>). I did get onto the roof during a break in the training to take a couple of pics.

Sat on the 'south eastern carpark' (that's a freeway for those of you who don't know) videoing & taking pics of these amazing TCu's almost overhead - crisp & white & boiling - something we just haven't seen for a while - and an hour later escaped out to the SE of Melbourne and the Latrobe Valley. Drove out to Warragul, videoed what looked like a very, very, very short gustnado (do not get excited), some nice cloud formations, a kangaroo who couldn't see me or a tripod or a purple Commodore parked off the side of the road & almost ran over the top of me while I was videoing a cloud <g>, lightning on the way back......it was just a nice storm chasers' evening drive.......

Jane ONeill (Melbourne)

Thanks also to the Bureau of Meteorology, University of Wyoming and James Cook University.